220
FXHW60 PHFO 111402
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
402 AM HST Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Winds remain light and variable through today as Hurricane
Henriette passes north of the state. Gentle to moderate trades
will build back tonight, but warm and muggy conditions continue.
A low level trough will bring an increase in clouds and showers
Wednesday night into Thursday night, followed by trades building
by the end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Hurricane Henriette is roughly 500 miles northeast of Kauai and is
continuing a northwest track away from the state. Henriette
continues to disrupt the trade wind flow across the state.
Satellite and radar imagery shows skies have cleared overnight as
land breezes developed in light to moderate east southeast
background flow. A few moderate to heavy showers can be seen over
the near shore forecast waters with the heavier showers mainly
within the channels where the convergence is greatest. Expect
showers and clouds to develop over leeward and interior areas
during peak daytime heating as sea breezes develop. There is a
chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop over up slope of the
kona slopes of the Big Island this afternoon. Additionally, hot
and humid conditions are expected across most locations as
dewpoint values are progged to exceed 70 in some locations. Trade
winds will gradually strengthen during the evening hours as
Henriette moves further north allow the pressure gradient to build
over the state. Gentle to moderate trades with stable conditions
is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

By late Wednesday, latest model guidance depicts a low-level
trough that propagates westward into the state. Temperature
inversions across much of the state increase to near 8,000 feet
during this time, increasing cloud cover and shower trends across
the state, favoring windward and mountain areas of all islands.
This quick-moving trough continues westward and exits on the west
side of the islands by late Thursday.

Thereafter, as the weekend approaches, trades strengthen back to
moderate to locally breezy and a more typical summer-like trade
wind weather pattern will once again prevail.


&&

.AVIATION...

Overnight land breeze will develop into seabreezes as the day
progress today. Thus the day will start out with mostly VFR
conditions with possible MVFR building in the afternoon with
showers. Gentle to moderate trade wind winds will gradually return
tonight through Wednesday as Hurricane Henriette tracks north of
the state and a surface ridge develops north of the state.

No AIRMET are in effect but could anticipate the need for AIRMET
Sierra for mountain obscuration for portions of the Big Island`s
south and east facing slopes this afternoon as showers and
isolated thunderstorms develop over these areas.



&&

.MARINE...
The high pressure ridge will begin to build back over the region
with easterly trade winds returning, as Hurricane Henriette
continues to drift northwestward away from the Hawaiian Islands.
Trade winds will strengthen into the moderate to fresh range from
Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds briefly weaken by Thursday as a
surface trough advances westward through the island chain.
Trade winds forecast to increase into the moderate to locally
strong range through the weekend with a return to Small Craft
Advisories for windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big
Island.

Barber`s Point and Kaumalapau (Lanai) PACIOOS buoys indicate the
ongoing medium to long period south swell continues to gradually
decline. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) for south facing shores
remains in effect today. The HSA may be cancelled later this
afternoon as the surf heights could fall below advisory
thresholds. Small background pulses of south and southeast swell
energy will keep small surf in the south shore forecast lasting
through into the weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will rapidly decline today with
small surf continuing through the week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather thresholds are not expect over the next
couple of days as winds will remain light to moderate with
dewpoint values near or above 70 degrees for some areas. Some
instability will linger around the the Big Island upper slopes
today and possibly through the rest of the week as inversion
heights fluctuate between 5-8 kft with pockets of deep moisture
moving through. Drier and more stable conditions will gradually
return late this week into the weekend.




&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kohala-
Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai
Southeast-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui
Central Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big
Island South-Big Island Southeast.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Almanza
MARINE...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...Almanza