381
FXHW60 PHFO 060235
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
435 PM HST Fri Sep 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate trade winds will persist into early next week,
occasionally disrupted by land and sea breezes. Generally dry and
stable conditions will prevail, though shower activity may
increase slightly late Sunday into Monday as an upper level low
approaches. Attention then turns to Hurricane Kiko, which may
influence island weather next week depending on its eventual
track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light to moderate trade winds will continue through the weekend
as weak high pressure to the north remains disrupted by a surface
low/trough. This weaker background flow will allow localized sea
breezes to develop each afternoon, producing clouds and a few
light showers over leeward and interior areas. Subsidence from
mid-level ridging and the intrusion of drier air will help limit
rainfall coverage and intensity through Saturday night.

From Sunday into Monday morning, a band of moisture embedded
within the lighter trades combined with increasing mid- to upper-
level instability from an approaching upper level low may lead to
a modest uptick in shower activity.

Attention then shifts to Tropical Cyclone Kiko. Kiko is currently
a Category 4 hurricane moving west-northwest at 10 mph. The
latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has
shifted slightly to the right of the previous forecast track and
has it weakening to tropical storm strength by Tuesday as it
passes north and east of the island chain. For now, the main
impacts look to be focused on the marine-side of things as
detailed in the marine section below. However, we will continue to
monitor Kiko`s track for the potential to see any direct impacts
from winds and rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to moderate trade winds will prevail across the state.
Trades will weaken this weekend as a trough moves closer to the
Hawaiian Islands, remaining NW of the state, while Tropical
Cyclone Kiko approaches the area from the southeast. Brief periods
of MVFR conditions associated with occasional showers are
possible, primarily over windward an mountainous areas. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect, and none are anticipated
through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak surface ridging just north of the state will continue to
produce moderate trades through tonight. A weak trough is expected
to develop just north of the islands this weekend and cause trade
winds to ease into the gentle to moderate range with localized
sea breezes. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds should briefly
return on Monday.

Hurricane Kiko, approximately 1000 NM ESE of Hilo, continues to
track west northwest in the Eastern Pacific. The latest forecast
from the National Hurricane Center has Kiko entering our offshore
waters late Monday as a strong Tropical Storm or weak Hurricane.
Kiko is then expected to skirt our coastal waters, north of the
Big Island or Maui County, as a tropical storm on Tuesday. Please
keep a close eye on the future National Hurricane Center forecast
track updates as the system approaches.

A small, short period, northwest swell will bring small surf to
north facing shores through this weekend. In the extended
forecast, additional small northwest swells from distant north
pacific disturbances will continue to generate rounds of small
surf along north facing shores through mid-next week.

A moderate long-period south-southwest swell will gradually fill
in on Saturday and peak on Sunday above the summer average. As
this swell declines on Monday, another reinforcing swell out of
the south-southwest is expected on Tuesday. This should help
maintain surf near or slightly above the summer average throughout
the first half of next week.

Surf along east facing shores will steadily rise Sunday through
early next week as swell energy from Tropical Cyclone Kiko
arrives. The surf may approach High Surf Advisory Criteria as
early as Monday and possibly breach High Surf Warning levels
Monday night into Tuesday. However, surf heights will be highly
depended on the track and intensity of Kiko as it nears the state.

Peak monthly high tides, combined with water levels running
higher than predicted, may lead to minor flooding along the
shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. A Coastal Flood
Statement remains in effect through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While afternoon humidities will briefly fall into the upper 30s
to middle 40s under dry and warm conditions, winds will remain
below critical fire weather thresholds with light to moderate
winds forecast through Sunday. On Monday, drier air will filter
across the state, dropping relative humidities, but winds should
still remain below critical fire weather thresholds. Showers may
increase in coverage and intensity over many windward exposures
early to mid next week as TC Kiko passes north of the state.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Vaughan/DT
MARINE...Kino
FIRE WEATHER...Farris