757
FXHW60 PHFO 260138
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
338 PM HST Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will weaken this weekend with land and sea breezes becoming
dominant. A disturbance aloft could bring some unsettled weather
and locally heavy rainfall to the islands early next week. A
return to more typical trade wind weather featuring mainly
windward and mauka showers may return during the latter part of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1012 mb surface low is centered 850 miles northwest of Kauai,
while a 1029 mb high is centered around 1500 miles north northeast
of Honolulu. Between these two features lies a band of thunderstorms
along a trough of low pressure stemming from the low, which
passes around 150 miles northwest of Kauai. Visible satellite
shows thin cirrus clouds tracking across the main Hawaiian
Islands. At the low levels, moderate southeast flow across the
state are pushing a few clouds with isolated showers onto windward
and southeast slopes, but overall mostly dry conditions expected
through night. A slight chance of thunderstorms possible tonight
for waters north and west of Kauai along the eastern fringes of
the trough, but stability is expected to increase this weekend.

The surface low will shift eastward this weekend, then dampen
into a trough over the islands early next week. This will ease the
east-southeast flow allowing for daytime sea breezes and nighttime
land breezes to become dominant across the state this weekend through
the middle of next week. Low clouds and showers will favor
leeward and interior sections in the afternoon and evening hours,
and east and southeast facing slopes and coasts overnight and
during the morning hours, with most showers over the coastal
waters or near the immediate coast overnight. A disturbance aloft
diving southward over the state could bring locally heavy rainfall
to portions of the island chain Tuesday into Wednesday.

The trough will then fizzle out with a gradual return and
strengthening of the trade winds across the state for the second
half of next week featuring mainly windward and mauka showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light winds with a background southeasterly flow will continue to
persist through Saturday. Winds will be light enough for localized
land breezes to develop tonight and sea breezes during the day
Saturday. Clouds and scattered showers may produce brief MVFR
conditions tonight. A strong upper level jet passing just south
of the state will produce a stream of high clouds and moderate
upper level turbulence across the entire state through tonight and
possibly into Saturday. AIRMET TANGO is in effect for moderate
turbulence between FL280 and FL400.

&&

.MARINE...
Locally fresh southeast winds will gradually ease and become light
and variable over the weekend as low pressure northwest of the
Islands slowly weakens and shifts northward. Light flow will
continue into Monday and Tuesday. Trade winds will eventually
return midweek. A slight chance of thunderstorms remains northwest
of Kauai through late tonight.

Existing small northwest swell will continue to fade, but a new
slightly larger long-period northwest swell is forecast to build
in overnight, peak Saturday night or Sunday, then fade through
early next week. Surf along north and west facing shores is
expected to remain small for the coming week.

Multiple small early season south swells will maintain small
background southerly energy into the coming week. Weak upstream
trade wind flow will keep surf along east facing shores near or
below seasonal averages.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...Kino
MARINE...Bedal