Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
295 FXHW60 PHFO 120122 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 322 PM HST Sun May 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure far the northeast will drive breezy trade winds with mainly windward and mauka showers. An upper low moving across the state could increase shower coverage and intensity Thursday through next weekend && .DISCUSSION... High pressure far northeast of Hawaii will drive breezy trade winds through the next week, with slight variations through the week. Cumulus clouds and scattered showers will move across the state pushed along by the trades, focusing mostly over windward and mauka sides of the islands. Isolated showers will pass over leeward areas of the smaller islands at times, but will not linger long. Most showers will fall during the overnight and early morning time frames, except for Big Island which will receive most of the showers during the afternoon. Overall rainfall amounts will be insignificant through midweek. An upper low moving across the state could increase shower coverage and intensity Thursday through next weekend, with a similar distribution across mostly the windward and mauka areas. && .AVIATION... VFR prevails with isolated MVFR as breezy trades deliver clouds and showers to windward and mauka areas. Shower coverage then increases tonight for windward portions of Maui through Oahu potentially warranting AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration overnight. AIRMET Tango for lee turb remains in effect. && .MARINE... Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue as an area of high pressure remains far north of the state through the next couple of days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most Hawaiian waters as a result, through late Monday afternoon. The high is expected to slowly drift the east, which will allow the trades to weaken slightly Tuesday through mid-week. As that happens, expect the SCA to be scaled back to the more typical waters near Maui and the Big Island through the remainder of the week. The current long period south-southwest swell continue to keep surf elevated today just below advisory levels. Surf is expected to begin a slow decline over the next few hours that will continue through mid-week. Surf along east-facing shores will be rough and choppy today due to the stronger trade winds. Rough and choppy surf will persist throughout the week with a slight decrease in surf heights as the trades ease slightly by mid-week. A series of small northwest swells will keep small surf in place along north facing shores through next weekend. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters- Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters- Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel- Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...JVC MARINE...M Ballard