739
FXHW60 PHFO 061337
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
337 AM HST Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Gentle to moderate trade winds will continue through today. A
hybrid tradewind/seabreeze pattern will develop this afternoon
with clouds and showers developing over select leeward and
interior areas. Instability from a low aloft will continue to
support locally heavy showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms
over portions of the state today. Stronger trade winds and
increasingly stable conditions will develop Monday through
midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast remains on track with gentle to moderate trade persisting
across the state through today. Latest satellite and radar
imagery show mostly scattered light to brief, locally heavy
showers mainly along windward and mauka locations. Most of the
persistent heavy showers have remained over leeward coastal waters
where convergence is more prevalent. The morning soundings show
slightly more unstable conditions near Kauai and a slightly weaker
inversion near the Big Island, resulting from the upper level low
that appears to be circulating near Kauai and Oahu. Expect clouds
and showers to develop along leeward and interior areas as the
day progress and seabreezes develop. Due to the instability
created by the upper low a slight chance of thunderstorms remains
possible through today, especially for the upslope areas of the
Big Island later this afternoon.

As we head into the evening hours expect more of a tradewind
pattern to take over as land breezes develop and the chances of
heavier showers shifts more towards windward areas during the
overnight and early Monday morning hours. The absence of a deep
moisture profile will continue make forecasting when and where the
heaviest showers or thunderstorms may develop and will remain
localized.

Models trends still show trade winds gradually increasing later
today into Monday as a new high pressure to the distant northwest
builds eastward. Instability may linger through Monday, but
generally, increasingly stable trade wind conditions should return
by Tuesday and persist through much of next week as the upper low
weakens into a broad trough and shifts just east of the state.
With the return of a more typical trade wind pattern, expect
clouds and showers to favor primarily windward and mauka areas.


&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trade winds will continue with afternoon sea breezes
decreasing in coverage over terrain sheltered leeward areas. An
upper level low moving over the islands today will increase low
cloud and shower trends. Periods of MVFR conditions this weekend
will favor windward and mountain areas, including converging sea
breeze boundaries along the leeward slopes. There remains a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the state today.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.


&&

.MARINE...
A weakened ridge to the northeast of the islands is driving
gentle to moderate trades across the region this morning. An
upper low remains just northeast of the islands and, as a result,
a chance for thunderstorms remains in the forecast for the
offshore and coastal waters near the upper low through tonight.
After tonight, the low is forecast to lift back to the north. A
ridge is rebuilding to the north of the islands and this will help
strengthen trades cross the region. By Monday morning, Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds are possible in the typical
windier coastal waters near Maui County and the Big Island. Once
SCA winds return, we can expect those to continue through at least
mid- week.

A pair of overlapping small, short period north swells should
maintain small surf across north facing shores through today. A
short lived small, short to medium period northeast swell is
expected through this morning, which will also boost surf along
east facing shores. There is the potential for a moderate long
period north-northwest swell today, which would peak Monday below
advisory levels for north facing shores, with the swell lingering
into the middle of the new week. A moderate, long period south
swell should fill in today, hold into Monday, and then gradually
decline through the middle of next week. This swell may boost surf
along south facing shores to near or slightly below advisory
levels during its peak.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Powell