Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
267 FXHW60 PHFO 010148 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 348 PM HST Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate trade winds will continue through tonight with afternoon sea breezes over sheltered leeward areas. Trades will become moderate to breezy on Monday and continue through the week with clouds and passing showers favoring windward and mauka areas. && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor satellite imagery continues to show the upper-level low north of Kauai moving northwest away from the state this afternoon. Meanwhile, radar imagery shows some scattered showers over areas west of Kauai due to lingering instability from the low. Expect these showers, along with the potential for isolated thunderstorms, to continue through this evening. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient over the islands have kept moderate trades and has allowed for weak sea breezes to develop over sheltered leeward areas. Light showers and limited clouds will impact areas east of the Kauai Channel tonight. Guidance continues to show high pressure building north of the islands this week as the upper-level low weakens and moves further away from the state. Expect trade winds to become moderate to breezy on Monday with a return to a more typical summertime trade wind weather pattern as the ridge builds into the region and stabilizes the atmosphere. Trades look to potentially become moderate to locally breezy by mid to late next week as the high north of the state strengthens. Clouds and showers will tend to favor windward and mauka areas during this time, with an increase in coverage and intensity during the overnight and early morning hours. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally breezy trades deliver limited clouds and light showers windward and mauka through the period. VFR expected to prevail. West of Kauai, in the vicinity of Niihau, a few locally heavy showers or an isolated t-storm or two will be possible through this evening, but activity will remain well west of PHLI. No AIRMETs are currently in effect. && .MARINE... High pressure north of the state will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds tonight. The trades are expected to strengthen back to fresh to strong levels on Monday and persist through most of the week. Small Craft Advisory should return to the typical windy areas on Monday. A slight uptick of the trades are expected around Thursday, then it should decline over the weekend as the pressure gradient over the state weakens. No significant south swells are expected through this upcoming week. However, a series of small south-southwest and southeast swells will keep south facing shores from going flat. Typical mostly flat summertime conditions will continue along north facing shores through most of the week. East shore surf will gradually trend up closer to seasonal levels by around the middle of this week as the trades strengthen over and upstream of the islands. A fetch of strong northeast winds well off the California coast should bring a small northeast (050 to 060 degree) swell late this weekend into early next week. Some of this swell should wrap into select north facing exposures as well. Water levels running roughly 0.5 ft higher than normal around the Big Island combined with the new moon tides could cause minor flooding issues between July 2nd and July 6th with peak water levels expected on July 4th. Our last full moon, we did receive reports of some areas of the coastline becoming inundated with the high tide such as Coconut Island and Puhi Bay. A Coastal Flood Statement will likely be needed for the Big Island near the 4th of July. For the other islands, water levels are running just a touch above normal and will likely not reach our criteria of 1 foot above the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ahue AVIATION...JVC MARINE...Kino