204
FXHW60 PHFO 101334
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
334 AM HST Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will remain light over the next couple of days, instilling
a land-sea breeze pattern with rising humidity as Henriette passes
to the north of the state. By late Wednesday, a low-level trough
propagates into the vicinity of the islands, increasing the
probability of clouds and enhanced shower activity for windward
and mountain areas. Trades return thereafter, allowing humidity
levels to return to normal for the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An area of high pressure remains well northeast of the state,
while Henriette propagates northwestward, maintaining distance
away from the islands. As Henriette passes through the region,
trades will be disrupted, resulting in a light and variable
pattern through Monday afternoon. In the absence of local scale
winds, island heating will develop sea breezes each day, and
overnight cooling will drive downsloping land breezes each night.
During the day, sea breezes will enhance leeward and interior
region shower activity, while land breezes overnight will clear
the night skies, limiting showers. Additionally, hot and humid
conditions can be expected across most locations as dewpoint
values are progged to reach and even exceed 70 in some locations,
given the influx of excess moisture associated with Henriette
while passing in the vicinity of the islands.

Latest projection on the tracking of Henriette has it well north
of the islands late Monday into early Tuesday, releasing its
influence on the islands, and allowing trades to reestablish
across the state. The aforementioned area of high pressure will
then regain dominance over the region briefly.

By late Wednesday, latest model guidance depicts a low-level
trough that propagates westward into the state. Temperature
inversions across much of the state increase to near 8,000 feet
during this time, increasing cloud cover and shower trends across
the state, favoring windward and mountain areas of all islands.
This quick-moving trough continues westward and exits on the west
side of the islands by late Friday.

Thereafter, as the weekend approaches, trades strengthen back to
moderate to locally breezy and a more typical summer-like trade
wind weather pattern will once again prevail.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light and variable winds prevail, with enhanced shower activity
across leeward and interior regions across all islands, and a few
light showers across windward and mountain areas. VFR conditions
are expected to prevail, however, brief MVFR conditions cannot be
ruled out with showers.

There are no AIRMETs in effect at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds will continue through Monday as Tropical
Storm Henriette continues on a northwestward path, passing north
of the Hawaiian Islands. A ridge will build into the region with a
return to moderate trade winds as Henriette departs the pattern.
Trades winds will briefly strengthen into moderate to fresh range
from Tuesday into Wednesday. Global models then show a trough
moving westward through the region, weakening the ridge and
allowing winds to ease into the light to gentle range through
Thursday. Moderate to locally strong trades blow across the region
from Friday through next weekend.

The long period south swell will hold at high end High Surf
Advisory (HSA) levels, just below warning thresholds this morning.
Surf heights will slowly decline through tonight. However, surf
heights will likely remain above HSA thresholds into Monday.
Therefore the current HSA was extended in time through Monday
afternoon for the south facing shores of all islands. After this
current south swell diminishes from Tuesday into Wednesday, we expect
only small long and medium period background pulses along south
facing shores into next weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will increase as Tropical Storm
Henriette passes northeast of the state today, sending a medium
period east swell into the islands. This swell will decrease
rather quickly on Monday with smaller east shore surf expected
from Tuesday into Wednesday. A medium period northeast swell will
be possible by Thursday.

Tiny surf along north facing shores will continue with just small
energy pulses keeping north shore surf above flat levels this
week.

Peak afternoon high tides, combined with elevated water levels
running about a half a foot higher than predicted and a large
south swell, will lead to minor flooding along many south-facing
shorelines and low lying coastal areas through this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will remain light and variable over the next couple of
days, allowing for the development of a land-sea breeze pattern
for much of the state through Monday. Dewpoint values are expected
to gradually rise through early next week, with many areas
nearing or even exceeding dewpoints of 70 degrees. As a result,
weather conditions are expected to remain below critical fire
weather thresholds. However, remain vigilant when recreating
outdoors or when operating equipment that could cause a spark.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kohala-
Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai
Southeast-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui
Central Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big
Island South-Big Island Southeast.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Pierce
MARINE...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...Pierce