524
FXUS61 KGYX 082020
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
320 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The main story through the weekend will be below normal
temperatures and gusty winds making it feel even colder. Upslope
snow showers will be the dominant form of precipitation, but
there will be one narrow window with chances for light snow on
Saturday as a storm passes well out to sea. Even colder
temperatures are possible by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Light snow showers will continue to invade central ME this
afternoon as a embedded shortwave slowly moves south out of
Quebec/New Brunswick. It will take much of the overnight for
this to shift south, and eventually could bring some early
morning snow showers to the morning commute into southern ME and
NH.

Wind chills and overnight lows remain similar to past few
nights. Expect wind chills to be in the single digits below zero
for much of the area tomorrow morning.

As for winds themselves, gust factor will again decrease, but
it remains breezy overnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Another windy day on tap Thursday, this time with gusts up to
around 50 mph in southern NH. This comes amid the departure of a
embedded shortwave and continued strong pressure gradient. 850mb
winds increase to around 55kt, with momentum transfer set to
climb just below. Have issued a Wind Advisory for southern NH
and the Seacoast where winds have been toeing the line on Adv
criteria the past two days. Additional instability w/ mixing
should bring peak gusts above this criteria tomorrow morning
through the evening hours. Some uncertainty when these winds
fall off as the low level gradient remains until midnight
tomorrow night. Additional expansion may be needed towards the
CT River Valley where the ridges may see these gusts as well.

Otherwise, light snow or snow showers should be decreasing in
coverage through the morning hours with a warmer day. Of course,
it will still feel cool due to present wind and wind gusts, but
background temps rise into the mid 20s for the coast and
interior, with teens in the mountains.

The only precip chances remaining into the overnight hours will
be in the mountains where it is expected upslope snow continues
through. Where 3" has been reported via COOP this morning in
Pittsburg, NH, it is possible to see an additional 3" near the
Quebec border today through Thurs night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message: Temps remain below normal thru the extended. A chance
for light snow and light accumulations exists on Sat but otherwise
dry with below normal precip.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated thru early next
week.

Forecast Details: Model guidance is starting to come into better
agreement...and it is not in favor of any significant snowfall
this weekend. The storm track is converging towards an out to
sea scenario. At this time the northern stream S/WV trof is
tracking in such a way that it should provide the area with
light snow despite the main forcing south of southern New
England. The lift will be weaker...but the snow growth zone on
the order of 100 mb...so we should be able generate decent snow
ratios and some accumulation off of very light QPF. However
given the event looks like it will mainly be on Sat
morning...impacts are expected to be rather minor from this
event.

In the wake of this wave the cold will be refreshed by a new
Arctic air mass invading the Northeast. High temps will likely
be in the 20s at best for some areas with overnight lows falling
to near zero...even in gusty CAA. The offshore winds will ensure
precip stays confined to the higher terrain and upslope snow
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...NW wind gusts 30-40 kts continue across southern NH
this afternoon, slackening overnight. Another day of these gusty
winds is expected Thursday. VFR is expected outside of the
mountains, but brief periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible
as light SN traverses the interior and coast this evening and
overnight. Can`t rule out reduction of vis during this snow as
well. Upstream obs occasionally have been falling to 1 to 2
miles in more moderate snow, but has been shortlived.


Long Term...VFR conditions will dominate the extended...save for
one period Sat. Gusty winds continue Fri...with surface gusts
around 20 to 25 kt at the TAF sites. Light snow may lead to
areas of IFR conditions...mainly across the southern half of the
forecast area. Upslope cloud cover may linger around MVFR
thresholds near HIE thru the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...NW flow continues over the waters, with gusts to
Gale on the outer waters and SCA gusts in the bays and harbors.
Another gusty day Thursday before the pattern begins to weaken.
Have extended these headlines out to Thursday night.


Long Term...Westerly winds and seas will be diminishing
Fri...but SCA conditions likely linger thru much of the day
outside of the bays. After a brief break in light snow
Sat...winds behind ocean storm will increase again to marginal
SCA conditions. Early next week winds and seas look to remain
below SCA thresholds.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for
     NHZ008>010-012>015.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro
MARINE...Cornwell/Legro