938
FXUS61 KGYX 240633
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
233 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The rip current risk will remain elevated through today as
swell gradually tapers off. A slow moving front will approach
from the Great Lakes this afternoon with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible across western New Hampshire. The cold
front moves through Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the area. An upper trough will
remain over the Northeast through much of next week favoring
below normal temperatures with few opportunities for
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* High surf continues today as swell gradually decreases.
  Dangerous rip currents remain likely for much of the southern
  ME coast and NH seacoast.

Winds quickly ramp up this morning as 35kt LLJ remains in
proximity to the coast and interior today. Gusts 30 to 35 mph
will be possible for much of southern ME today, with 20 to 25
mph into southern NH. These winds will be advecting a marine
airmass with a bit more moisture to keep RH vales from falling
too low, but much of the area remains dry outside of the
mountains.

To the west, cold front is slowly advancing towards the area.
Continued to keep mention of showers muted and confined to the
mountains through the afternoon. Sufficient instability is hard
to come by this afternoon and think coverage remains isolated to
scattered at most.

Some uncertainty in cloud cover today, particularly along the
coast. Overnight hires models have little agreement on ceilings,
but general consensus is most cloud remains across the western
half of the CWA today. Guidance may be picking up on some low
level moisture condensing over landmass as the marine air
arrives. At this time, think this would result in some tufts of
lower cloud, with broken or overcast conditions not arriving
until late afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds thicken and lower this evening as low level moisture
is forced by arriving frontal feature. Some fog may result along
the coast in the evening and overnight.

Overnight into Monday, front slowly crosses the forecast area.
Precip chances increase, but shower coverage has been on a
downtrend over the past day or so. System will lack deeper
moisture to bring a more widespread wetting rain. Thus there may
be few winners and more losers in the beneficial rain department
for this event.

Hires guidance does suggest the combo of forcing and slow
movement generating lines of training showers as it slowly
moves east. Locations under this would see a higher chance of
wetting rain. This feature is most prominent through the
northern half of NH and into the Longfellow Mtns of ME Monday
afternoon.

Interesting offshore low moving north to Nova Scotia may also
assist in bringing Monday showers to the coast before the
aforementioned frontal feature. Although, QPF from these are
paltry compared to the 1-2 inch swath of rain it may bring to
the Gulf of Maine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early morning long term update...The 01z NBM has been
incorporated into the going forecast. This yields very little
change from what we had going previously. An upper trough will
meander over the northeast and Great Lakes but there`s really no
connection to higher PWAT air so the chances for beneficial
rain next week looks rather low.

Previously..

Pattern Overview: The pattern for the extended will be
dominated by broad 500mb troughing, but only feature a couple
chances for precipitation. Otherwise, this will only act to keep
temperatures on the cooler side through late next week.

Impacts and Key Messages:
* Continued drying will lead to worsening drought conditions as
  opportunities for widespread precipitation remain sparse in
  the extended forecast.

Details:

Tuesday and Wednesday: Broad troughing settles in overhead for
Tuesday and Wednesday, but with high pressure building in at the
surface, this won`t result in any increased precipitation
chances, except maybe in the mountains where the terrain adds an
extra degree of lift. Otherwise both days look mostly clear,
with some cumulus likely developing in the afternoon. Post
frontal winds could be on the breezy side Tuesday with gusts
20-25 mph. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 70s south
of the mountains, and mid to upper 60s to the north. Mostly
clear skies and light winds overnight, should allow for
radiational cooling and low temperatures in the 40s and low 50s.


Thursday-Saturday: High and low temperatures are going to
remain similar through the back half of the week as the cool and
dry pattern stays locked in. Mountain showers continue to be
possible each afternoon as well, with troughing overhead. There
is some suggestion in a sharper trough/shortwave passage Friday
that may bring another chance for more widespread rainfall
looking at current global guidance, but this is still out in
time and the trends have not been kind to us recently, so stuck
with NBM PoPs which keeps showers confined to the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR with some light LLWS through pre-dawn hours.
Winds quickly increase after sunrise, particularly for southern
ME terminals. Peak gusts 25 to 30 kts possible through the
afternoon. Winds less gusty tonight, but still breezy.
Clouds/ceiling tricky today, some MVFR possible late this
morning through the afternoon mainly for coast, but not
confident on sky coverage. More confident this fills in this
evening for MVFR to IFR restrictions. This slowly improves
Monday.

Long Term...VFR ceilings/vsbys will prevail through Thursday
outside of any early morning fog development.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Swell slackens through the day, first across the
northern coastal waters. Winds pick back up this morning, also
decreasing late afternoon. Cold front will approach from the
west tonight and Monday, while a compact low rapidly transverses
the Gulf of Maine from the south. Being on the west side of this
low, conditions may remain below SCA until Monday night.

Long Term...Wind gusts and seas generally remain below SCA
criteria through Thursday. The only exception may be Tuesday
morning as gusty southwest winds behind a cold front stir seas
up to near 5ft. Otherwise winds, shift between southerly and
westerly through the week with afternoon gusts 15-20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dewpoints are expected to creep up slightly today and allow
minimum RH values to remain between 40 and 50 percent although
winds remain breezy. Isolated to scattered showers develop this
afternoon across the western mountains. This area may see more
in the way of wetting rainfall Monday, but forecast coverage of
rainfall has been on the downtrend for remainder of the area.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ023>025.
NH...High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Baron/Ekster