117
FXUS61 KGYX 061439
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1039 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue for much of the first half of the day as a
cold front slowly sinks south across New England. It looks like
we will only get the briefest of breaks in precipitation late
today and tonight because the next batch of rain or snow will be
moving in early Monday. It may still slide south of most of the
area, but parts of southern New Hampshire may wake up to flakes
on Monday. Yet another storm system will approach Tuesday and
bring rain and snow to an even larger part of the forecast
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030am Update...Showers this morning quickly filled in for a
more continuous period of rain. This has been slow to exit along
the cold front that is now exiting over the Gulf of Maine.
Increased PoPs a bit to get us through the rest of the morning,
but drying trend is underway to the west. An embedded shortwave
will near the mountains with showers. Radar returns can be
observed entering northern VT.

620am Update...Minor changes to PoP based on latest radar
trends. The best chances for accumulating precip will
increasingly shift towards the coast over the next couple of
hours.

Previous discussion...Cold front continues to march
southeastward this morning...but showers also continue along and
ahead of the boundary. By midday the focus of showers will be
near the coast...though a couple isolated upslope showers are
possible in the mtns. At this time most locations have warmed
above freezing. While a few pockets of sub-freezing air may
linger in the mid slopes of the western ME mtns...the majority
of the freezing rain threat has ended. I have cancelled the
Winter Weather Advisory as a result.

Once the boundary layer gets mixed out today...temps should
climb into the 50s south of the mtns. Clouds and CAA will keep
readings in the 40s to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Besides a few upslope showers in the mtns tonight...it should be
relatively quiet. A steady drop in temps rather than radiating is
anticipated with CAA behind the cold front.

Heading into Mon positive vorticity advection continues as the
upper trof axis pivots towards the Northeast. A fast moving area
of precip is forecast to cross parts of New England. There is
some uncertainty about just how far north this will
materialize...but some light precip is possible over the
southern third of the forecast area. It may also be cold enough
for this to fall mainly as snow. While snow would not be
heavy...it would be occurring around the morning commute so any
snow covered roads could lead to slick travel.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Saturday evening update...No significant changes to the long
term forecast. Mainly minor events with cold and breezy wx
Tue/Wed. Next chance for something decent is mostly likely over
the weekend, but we are too far out to speculate on any details.

Previously...

The models are showing some hope for warmer weather toward the
end of next week, but not before we deal with a deep trough
building equatorward out of E Canada early to mid next week.
This will be an unsettled periods with several chance for
precip, and below normal temps. After this, the N Atlantic
blocking shifts towards Europe and allow the colder air to
shift back to to the Arctic. May have to deal with 500 MB closed
low lingering to our S for next weekend though.

We start the week with two systems, which are not phasing, a
weak and stretched out area of low pressure along a slow moving
front that is responsible for the severe wx over the S US this
this weekend, and another higher amplitude 500 MB diving SE
through the Great Lakes. The southern system arrives first late
Sunday night into Monday morning. The Euro has been pretty
consistent keeping the front and waves moving along the front
far enough S for the CWA to get a glancing blow from, mainly in
the southern zones, with some showers of RA or SN, while the GFS
pushes it a bit further N and interacting with some energy from
the N steam system, although it has pushed it S on some runs as
well. I am leaning toward the Euro because its the superior
model, and I think the GFS might be suffering from convective
scaling issues. Following the Euro we would see very little if
any snow accums. There might be more with the GFS as it tries to
develop a deformation N of the front further inland, where the
air will be colder, and could produce some inland accums.
Showers wind down during the afternoon, likely as rain
everywhere as highs push into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Slightly cooler air moves in behind this system, but the second
round of precip will begin late Monday night and continue into
Tuesday. This will will be a weak low pressure moving across the
N zones, and will provide another round of showers, although
this will bring the higher QPF to the N zones, where it could
fall as mostly snow, so a couple inches are possible in the mtns
late Monday night into Tuesday. To the show it will be mostly
rain, and also be more showery. Highs will mostly be in the mid
30s N to the low 40s in the S. By Tuesday evening the winds
shift to W and bring in colder air with lows Wed morning from
around 20 in the mtns to the mid to upper 20s in the S.

Wed looks dry, mainly sunny but cool, with breezy W flow and
highs ranging from the mid 30s in the mtns to the mid 40s in the
S. Thu also looks partly to mostly sunny and warmer, as ridge
building from the SE keeps us protects from 500 MB closing off
over the Ohio vly. Highs range from mid 40s N to low 50s S. Will
have to watch the development of that 500 MB closed low as it
could bring showers in for Friday and next weekend, although it
looks warm that we should not have to worry about snow.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Widespread IFR or lower CIGs remain in place south
and east of an advancing cold front. As the boundary moves thru
the region the low clouds will mix out. This will occur over the
foothills this morning and by midday at the coast. Showers will
linger thru much of the first half of the day as
well...especially south of the mtns. Largely VFR conditions are
anticipated tonight...but clouds will increase again from the
southwest heading into Mon. A passing area of precip may clip
southern zones...and may sneak precip into MHT and PSM with MVFR
or lower conditions.

Long Term...Southern terminals, KMHT/KPSM/KCON/KPWM likely to
start off the MVFR flight restrictions ans some SHRASN Monday
morning, and will likely stay there into the afternoon, before
conds improve to VFR Monday afternoon and evening. The N
terminals could see a brief period of MVFR, but could end up
being predominantly VFR through the Monday into the evening.
Another low passes across the N Mon night into Tues, and will
likely bring KLEB/KHIE/KAUG down to IFR for a time late Monday
night into Tue morning,with MVFR through the day Tuesday. The
rest of the terminals will probably VFR and some SHRA in this
time frame. Wed and Thu should be a fine VFR days although W
winds gusting to around 20 kts are expected on Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Strongest winds are moving east across the Gulf of
ME at this hour...and this is allowing both gusts and seas to
diminish. I have cancelled the SCA for Penobscot Bay. The SCA
remains for the outer waters as seas remain above 5 ft. By this
afternoon or evening those seas are expected to fall below 5 ft.

Long Term...Seas/winds generally stay below SCA levels day
through Thursday, with weak low pressure passing to our S on
Monday, and to the N on Tuesday. Gusty W winds could approach
SCA levels on Wed.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cornwell/Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Cempa