Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
515 FXUS61 KGYX 060218 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1018 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... We have reached the coolest portion of the week after a weak cold front has pushed into the area, but a return to hot temperatures is looking more likely by the weekend. Aside from some isolated showers it will also remain mostly dry across the region into early next week. Smoke and haze may try and return to the area Thursday into Friday as winds become southwesterly. Then temperatures in the 90s appear likely for some of the area by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 1018 PM...Minor update to reflect observational trends. Previously... Showers have developed across the VT/NH border, and would expect isolated showers to develop through whats left of this afternoon. CAMs have been consistent with development across west central NH, although morning high clouds limited early instability. Mostly sunny skies elsewhere as low level smoke/haze has largely moved south and west of the area. Mid/low deck builds tonight with the arrival of moisture. This should help overnight lows be more uniform in the mid to upper 50s. Uncertainty to how much valley fog we get in this scenario as it dampens overnight valley decoupling. Did keep mention of this fog in the Kennebec Valley as clouds may be thinner here. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Very similar forecast for Wednesday with a bit more cloud cover. High temps and winds largely follow same diurnal pattern. Again forecast isolated to scattered shower development in western NH for the afternoon. SBCAPE values are displaced west, so overall coverage and intensity may be further suppressed. Dry conditions into the overnight hours with some valley fog. Lows again fall into the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message: Mostly quiet weather anticipated thru the extended. A return to very warm/hot temps is looking more likely for the weekend into early next week. Impacts: Continued dry weather will start to expand the area of abnormally dry weather on the drought monitor. By the weekend into early next week there is a growing signal for a return to well above normal temps and increasing humidity. Forecast Details: Early on in the extended we will be monitoring smoke/haze once again. Latest long-range RRFS smoke guidance has the near-surface concentrations low to start Thu but an area of higher amounts off to our southwest. With winds becoming increasingly southwesterly I anticipate at least hazy conditions working back into the forecast area early Thu. I added an area based on 06z RRFS forecast...with some expectation that it may linger longer than thru 8 PM Fri. Otherwise the NAEFS and ECMWF EFI guidance does not show any significant anomalous portions of the forecast period until at least Sun. Forecast percentile and EFI show a high likelihood of above to well above normal temps starting then into early next week. NBM currently forecasting widespread low 90s into Tue...which seems reasonable given the look to the pattern. No real changes were necessary. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...VFR with haze abating and some SHRA in western NH this afternoon. Mid/low cloud deck develops tonight, but ceiling remains abv 3000ft. These clouds do create uncertainty in valley fog development tonight. Added mention to typical spots like HIE and LEB, but duration and intensity may depend on higher cloud cover. Another period of SHRA for western NH Wed afternoon. Long Term...Largely VFR conditions expected in the extended. Will have to deal with some valley fog especially early Thu. I do not anticipate smoke/haze to reduce VIS to MVFR...but it may linger around 6SM at times especially across NH terminals. && .MARINE... Short Term...High pressure remains overhead resulting in conditions below SCA criteria. Seas 1 to 3 ft expected with winds generally 15 kts or less. Long Term...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Sea breeze Thu will give way to more southwesterly winds by Fri. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NHZ001>015. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Cornwell/Schroeter SHORT TERM...Cornwell LONG TERM...Legro AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro MARINE...Cornwell/Legro