


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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989 FXUS61 KGYX 020650 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 250 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will hang up near the coast today. It will be largely dry today as well, with very warm temperatures and slightly lower relative humidity. Another front will approach Thursday afternoon with more showers and thunderstorms. These have the potential to be more organized than today and gusty winds and small hail are possible. That front will usher in a much drier air mass for the Fourth, with temperatures in the 70s and 80s and comfortable relative humidities. The weekend will gradually get warmer and more humid along with increasing chances for showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Cold front stays hung up near the coast today with no real change in air mass. It will remain hot and humid...and daytime heating will likely lead to some towering cumulus. With a lack of forcing for ascent any showers will be isolated at best. Drier dewpoints begin to filter in late in the day...which should prevent heat index values from climbing much above 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Wed night will have to watch the creep of marine fog down the coast as the next front approaches and flow starts to turn back towards shore. Wind direction will not be quite as onshore as today however...so how far it makes it is in question. I suspect some fog will work into areas around Casco Bay at least. CSU machine learning severe guidance continues to highlight Thu afternoon for potential strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. SPC also has a day 3 marginal risk already. Forecast soundings are similar to the past 24 hours...with enough shear and sufficient lapse rates for strong updrafts with some organization. At this time it appears both wind and hail could be a threat. As some towns begin 4th of July festivities the severe threat may be more impactful than usual with more people outdoors. Timing also looks quite favorable for maximizing peak heating...with storms starting early in the mtns and moving south and east into a warm and still moist air mass. CAM guidance already looks a fair bit more robust than they did for today && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message: Pretty typical summer pattern beyond Thu night. After a dry Fri...warm temps and chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast each day. Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated at this time. Forecast Details: The most active weather looks to be in the short term and so the extended is largely the latest version of the National Blend of Models. What does look to be true is that Fri will be a very nice day. Temps will remain warm...but a fresh dry air mass will replace the higher humidity expected thru Thu. Dewpoints in the 50s and even upper 40s are likely during the afternoon. Ridge axis will slip southeast of the area by Sat. This will allow southwest to return and warm/moist advection to start again. This will also bring passing S/WV trofs a little closer and the chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase thru the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...Largely VFR conditions expected today. Wed night marine fog will start to creep back down the coast...with IFR or lower conditions possible from RKD to PWM. Then a cold front will cross the area Thu afternoon with scattered SHRA/TSRA. Beside local MVFR or lower in any convection...some of the stronger storms may contain gusty winds and small hail. Long Term...VFR conditions generally expected Thu night thru Sat under high pressure. Sun into early next week chances for SHRA will increase and local MVFR or lower conditions will be possible. && .MARINE... Short Term...Offshore fog bank will hang well offshore until the next cold front approaches. I suspect it will begin to creep southwest back down the coast heading into Thu. Otherwise winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. Long Term...Fresh westerly winds Fri will give way to predominately southwesterlies thru the weekend. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. By early next week persistent southwesterly winds may allow for seas to build to next 5 ft well outside of the bays. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Legro/MLE