318
FXUS61 KGYX 060134
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
934 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant, dry weather is expected this weekend. A cold front
moves through the area on Monday, and should bring a measurable
amount of rainfall. Temperatures cool through the rest of the
week, with some rain/snow showers possible in the White
Mountains by the midweek. Temperatures bottom out on Thursday
and average temperatures look to return over next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
0130Z Update...
Winds have decoupled across portions of the forecast area this
evening, mainly across the interior valleys. This will allow for
temperatures to quickly drop under mainly clear skies and light
winds. Radiational cooling will allow for 30s across portions of
New Hampshire, interior Maine and in particular the northern
mountains.

A few clouds will reach far eastern areas at times during the
overnight hours. For the most part however, mainly clear skies
will continue with patchy fog developing.

Prev Disc...
Update...
Clouds continue to dissipate over the western two thirds of the
forecast area per latest satellite imagery and surface
observations. Over eastern areas, the latest HREF continues to
pinwheel moisture into that area in the form of SCT-BKN low
clouds.

The occasional cloud cover will allow for milder temperatures
overnight as you head towards the Penobscot River Valley.
Elsewhere, clear skies and light winds will allow for
radiational cooling later tonight. Temperatures will drop into
the 30s in the mountains with lower 40s elsewhere by morning.

Prev Disc...
High pressure continues to build in overnight tonight from the
west, bringing cooler and drier air into the region. A breeze
looks to continue most of the night, limiting the radiation
cooling potential. Northern valleys stand the best chance to go
calm and decouple late tonight, with a few hour window to cool
into the mid to upper 30s. Lows in the low to mid 40s are mostly
expected elsewhere under mainly clear skies most of the night.
Some clouds likely move into far eastern and northwestern areas
late tonight as some low level moisture and clouds arrive on a
north-northeasterly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tomorrow looks to be a seasonable day with highs ranging from
the upper 50s across the north, to mid 60s through southern
areas and the coastline. Clouds look to linger through eastern
areas most of the day, while much of western Maine and New
Hampshire enjoys a bright first half of the day. Clouds then do
start to arrive ahead of an approaching cold front with a wave
of low pressure developing along it. At the same time, low level
moisture begins to increase as high pressure slides offshore by
the afternoon hours.

Temps cool through the evening tomorrow, but then mostly level
out overnight as the cloud cover thickens. Patchy fog is
possible across the interior south of the mountains, where
increasing low level moisture may become banked up against the
mountains. The front steadily approaches from the west
overnight, with showers likely reaching far western New
Hampshire shortly after midnight. This gives way to a steady and
mostly light rain that spreads eastward, likely reaching
western Maine by daybreak on Monday.

The rain mostly falls within about a six hour window, with most
of the rain in New Hampshire falling overnight tomorrow night.
Generally about a quarter to a half inch of rain is expected,
but some isolated higher amounts are possible through the White
Mountains. The bulk of the rainfall through Maine will hold off
until the daytime on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper-level low situated over Canada looks to bring a cold
front through the Great Lakes and the Northeast. On Sunday
night, some instability over the Great Lakes will help produce a
long line of thunderstorms. As this line approaches New
England by Monday morning, the storms will gradually decay into
heavy rain. Southeast flow through the day on Monday should
help transport more moisture into the front. The flash flooding
risk is low on Monday given our currently drier soils and the
timing of the front through New Hampshire and Maine.

By Tuesday morning, the rain exits the region. The upper-level
low remains overhead and will help bring colder temperatures
into the forecast. Some wraparound moisture from the upper-level
low could spawn some rain or snow showers north of the mountains
through the midweek.

High pressure associated with a ridge enters the region on
Friday, bringing clearer skies and warmer temperatures. High
pressure remains in the forecast through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions prevail into tonight, with a
brief period of valley fog at LEB late tonight. An MVFR cloud
deck is likely at AUG and RKD by late tonight, and likely
lingers most of the day tomorrow. VFR conditions are expected
elsewhere. Ceilings then lower tomorrow night, with MVFR and
then IFR conditions likely moving from west to east over the
course of the night from midnight through daybreak on Monday.

Long Term...

MVFR likely through the day Monday as rain moves through the
region. Conditions improve to VFR Tuesday morning as skies clear
out. Mostly VFR is expected through the rest of the week, but
some showers may locally lower CIGS and visibility in the White
Mountains on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure continues to build in overnight
tonight, and then slides east of the waters tomorrow. A cold
front approaches from the west tomorrow night. A southeasterly
swell from distant Hurricane Kirk builds to greater than 5ft by
tomorrow night.

Long Term...
SCA issuance is like through the first-half of
next week. On Monday, southeasterly winds at 15-20kts are
expected with 5-7 foot seas. Winds shift to northwesterlies with
similar magnitude overnight Monday. Elevated seas continue
through Tuesday and let up by Wednesday morning. &&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
Cannon