193
FXUS61 KGYX 010725
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
325 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier air works into the region today behind a
departing cold front. High pressure slides west to east across
the Northeast tonight through Wednesday for fair weather.
Temperatures and humidity increase Wednesday into Thursday as
the high moves offshore and a frontal system tracks NW of New
England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The cold front that brought thunderstorms yesterday is now
pushing offshore with light NNW winds advecting drier air into
the region this morning. Aloft, there is a positively tilted
short wave over Upstate NY that will pivot across southern New
England today. Most models hint at some isolated showers
developing across NH and Mass into York County as this trough
swings close to overhead. However, recent runs of the HRRR have
backed off on this shower activity. Will continue slight chances
for isolated showers across SE NH into far SW Maine this
afternoon, while on the whole today is looking mostly dry with a
mix of sun and clouds.

High pressure will gradually build in from the west today
maintaining a northerly gradient over the area. This will
allow for steady northerly flow over the forecast area with
coastal areas approaching 80 degrees for afternoon highs.
Elsewhere, highs will range from the low to upper 70s north to
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build in from the west tonight
cresting over the area Tuesday. Clear skies and light winds will
allow for lows to drop into the 40s within northern valleys
with 50s elsewhere.

High pressure centered overhead Tuesday will provide fair
weather with light winds. Temperatures will rise into the low
80s with and afternoon seas breeze likely developing and cooler
down coastal zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Enjoy the cool and dry start to the work week because heat and
humidity will return. The area will be under the influence of a
mid and upper level ridge through Wednesday, but an upper level
trough will drive the ridge southward by Thursday. The surface
high will slide offshore, with a warm front pulling in heat and
humid air back into the region late Wednesday. This will likely
be accompanied by showers in the afternoon. Southerly flow
becomes more established leading to hot and humid conditions
late week starting on the 4th. Aloft there will be fairly zonal
flow, with a series of weak upper level troughs Thursday through
Saturday. A pre-frontal trough could keep some showers possible
Thursday, with a series of weak frontal passages that will
support scattered showers and thunderstorm activity with low
confidence on timing through the weekend. Despite any cold
frontal passages, the overall airmass will remain warm and
humid, fairly typical of July.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will prevail today through Tuesday. The
exception will be potential for a few hours of patchy valley fog
impacting KLEB and KHIE tonight.


Long Term...VFR expected Monday night through Wed, with
possible valley fog Monday night. Then more widespread flight
restrictions possible Wed night into early Thu in SHRA/TSRA and
some fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure builds in from the west with
northerly winds prevailing over the waters. High pressure moves
closer to overhead Tuesday for light winds with an afternoon sea
breeze. Winds and seas stay below SCA thresholds through the
period.

Long Term...Swell from Beryl will arrive late Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing minimal rise in wave heights but could raise
rip current risk. The high will drift east on Thursday with a
warm front lifting north, bringing heat and humid conditions.
The pattern remains unsettled under zonal flow by the end of the
week into the weekend with the passage of weak frontal
boundaries. Outlook...


&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Jamison