095
FXUS61 KGYX 041352
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
952 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be a pretty typical spring day across the forecast
area. Temperatures will be warm but it will be breezy and drier.
This will be short lived however, as the next storm will be
approaching Saturday. Precipitation overspreads the area during
the second half of the day. Some snow is possible, but most
likely it will be a wintry mix followed by a transition to rain.
The weather pattern will remain active into next week, with
additional chances for wintry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950am Update...Upper cloud cast is quickly moving east across
the forecast area at this hour. This should give way to a mostly
sunny day along the coast and interior with clouds lingering in
the mountains. Expect breeze to pick up as well as temps to jump
w/ more direct sunlight. Will next focus on weekend event which
will bring mixed precip to the area. Ensemble guidance has
trended less confident in total amounts greater than half an
inch through Sunday morning. Will be looking to perhaps include
periods of drizzle between segments of QPF Saturday and Saturday
night.

630am Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational
trends.

Previous discussion...Lingering fog near the coast is gradually
mixing out as a cold front slowly works thru the region. Once
the fog clears...besides some high clouds...it will be mostly
sunny and warm today. A steady northwesterly breeze may make it
feel slightly cooler than what the thermometer will read...but
highs in the 50s to near 60 in the far south are likely today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Tonight will be a quiet one...with the breeze lingering thru the
first half of the night before becoming light and variable. The
next storm system will be approaching with a warm front heading
for northern New England. Opted for a non-diurnal temp trend
Sat...as it will be warmer prior to precip onset. Once precip
starts falling temps will wetbulb down into the low to mid 30s.
My confidence is pretty low on exactly how cold it will get
during the day...but temps will be near freezing and there is a
threat of mixed precip again. This could be another case of a
brief period of snow followed by sleet/freezing rain before
ending as rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
04Z Long Term Update... Latest forecast guidance including the
latest NBM is hinting at a potentially longer period of sleet
for areas even south of the mountains on Saturday evening and
therefore incorporated this into the forecast. Otherwise, no
major changes were made at this time.

Previously...
Overview: A wave of low pressure will follow
exiting high pres into the Northeast this weekend, bringing
another round of rain and wintry precipitation to the area. This
lingers through Sunday night before high pressure quickly moves
through northern New England into Monday. Another disturbance
will move through the region through early to mid week.

Details: Main focus is on this weekend`s event which appears
likely to include another round of mixed precipitation. Low
pressure will initially glide along a stationary front well to
the south, with overunning precipitation spreading throughout
the forecast area Saturday afternoon.

Surface temps and profile temps will play a role in precip types
for the area. CAD appears to be weak as onshore flow moves over
the coast and interior for a couple hours ahead of precip onset.
This will at least allow surface temps to rise above freezing
for all but the mountains of northern NH and western ME.

Warm layer above the surface will bring the chance for wintry
mix across northern areas. NBM probs are high for both a period
of sleet but also freezing rain where sfc temps stay cooler in
the mountains. Confidence in values and area should improve here
on out, but a lot of current uncertainty revolves around how
far north warm front gets this weekend. With warm sfc temps
leading into the event, would need greater CAA to make ice
accretion greater. Will need to watch QPF Saturday evening and
overnight as accretion rates may be greater then vs. Saturday
evening. Should the warm front successfully push north Sunday,
remaining precip falls as rain.

This exiting system will flush the region as a cold front
arrives. Guidance keeps its movement slow, and this could result
in additional precip w/ another wave traveling northeast. EPS
has been fairly locked on positioning for a number of runs, with
GEFS wavering a bit more. The passage is close enough to
include some inland mention of showers lingering into Monday,
perhaps as light snow.

The active pattern continues as a compact low exits the eastern
Great Lakes into Tuesday. This has slowed somewhat, and phasing
with the complex pushing off the East Coast isn`t as complete.
Precip may be snow on the heels of the exiting cold front, and
may need to watch for the chance of snow squalls Tues afternoon
should lapse rates increase.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...IFR or lower conditions have become much more
localized this morning as a cold front works thru the region.
Fog and low CIGs are largely confined to the coast at this
time...and will mix out with the front over the next hour or
two. VFR conditions are then expected thru around Sat morning.
Precip moves in with another warm front crossing the region
later Sat. IFR or lower conditions are expected once
again...with some mixed precip possible. Right now any mix is
most likely in the far interior and higher terrain.

Long Term...Waves of low pressure brings a period of a wintry
mix late Saturday into Saturday night with rain continuing
through Sunday. Periods of IFR to LIFR will be possible late
Saturday through Sunday. Some improvement is possible Sunday
afternoon before the next system crosses New England Sunday
night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Wind gusts have diminished but it will remain
breezy today as a cold front crosses the waters. Seas also
continue to diminish...but north of Cape Elizabeth they will
remain above 5 ft for several more hours. I have dropped the SCA
for the bays and outer waters south of Cape Elizabeth. Winds
will gradually become onshore again by Sat, increasing thru the
day but remaining below SCA thresholds.

Long Term...Waves of low pressure will track across New England
this weekend with winds and seas approaching SCA thresholds
Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will drop below 25 kts Sunday
night while seas remain elevated into Monday. A cold front will
pass the waters Monday, with a compact area of low pressure
advancing towards the waters from the west Tuesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cornwell/Legro
SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM...Cornwell/Tubbs