142
FXUS61 KGYX 300708
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
308 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over eastern Canada extending into New England
will continue dry weather through mid week. Temperatures will
run above normal today followed by a cooler onshore flow
Tuesday. A weak cold front will cross the region Wednesday and
Wednesday night bringing low chances for showers. High pressure
arrives on Thursday with another cold frontal passage on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure centered over eastern Canada will maintain dry
conditions today. Fog will diminish after sunrise this morning
while lingering within interior valleys until around 9 to 10 am.
Skies will be partly to mostly sunny across the northern two
thirds of the area today while some high clouds move into
southern areas as waves of low pressure track east off the Mid
Atlantic coast. High temperatures will climb into the 70s
across much of the region with winds out of the east northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control tonight through Tuesday.
Patchy fog will develop along the coastal plain with locally
dense fog within interior valleys. Lows tonight will range from
the low 40s north to near 50 degrees across the south.

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered to the
north and low pressure passing well south of New England will
tighten on Tuesday. This will enhance easterly flow over the
area leading to highs relegated to the 60s. This onshore flow
will also bring more in the way of clouds while the 00Z HREF
suggests there will be times of partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview...

The pattern continues to trend drier for the week ahead. High
pressure departs Tuesday night, then a weakening cold front
crosses through on Wednesday. High pressure then builds back
across New England for the end of the week. Another cold front
likely approaches from the west next weekend.

Details...

High pressure slides eastward from New England Tuesday night,
with increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front.
By Wednesday the cold front will approach from the west while
weakening. The global models and ensembles have steadily trended
this feature weaker and with less moisture. This leaves little
in the way of rainfall for most of northern New England, with
generally a tenth of an inch or less expected. Should this
feature continue to trend weaker, even less would be expected.
Decaying showers likely arrive into northwestern areas by late
in the day Wednesday, with whatever remains spreading
southeastward through the overnight hours. Some drizzle or
sprinkles are also possible ahead of the front during the day on
Wednesday.

The front mostly dissipates as it moves eastward, with a weak
area of high pressure building in from the southwest by Thursday
and continues into Friday. This keeps a west to southwesterly
flow ongoing behind the front, allowing temperatures to moderate
into the low to mid 70s each day.

By next weekend another cold front will likely approach from
the west. It`s still far too early to try to determine whether
it will feature any meaningful precipitation, or merely weaken
in the presence of the ridge, like Wednesday`s front. We`ll
continue to see how this trends over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...LIFR conditions through sunrise in low ceilings
and fog at KLEB, KHIE, KCON, and KAUG while occasional
restrictions will impact coastal sites. Conditions improve to
VFR for all sites during the day today. Valley fog along with
patchy fog and low ceilings will likely bring IFR to LIFR
conditions tonight for much of the area. Conditions improve to
VFR during the day Tuesday with steady easterly winds.

Long Term...Nighttime valley fog likely at HIE and LEB Tuesday
night. Some MVFR ceilings are possible on Wednesday as moisture
increases ahead of an approaching cold front, and scattered
showers late in the day. VFR conditions then return each day for
Thursday through Saturday, with nighttime valley fog likely at
at least LEB and HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds today
through Tuesday. Easterly flow will increase Tuesday with gusts
approaching 20 kts along the outer waters.

Long Term...Conditions look to remain below SCA levels through
the week. High pressure moves eastward on Tuesday, then a weak
cold front crosses the waters late Wednesday. High pressure
returns for the end of the week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Clair