641
FXUS61 KGYX 141805
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
205 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will cross the region by Wednesday morning
bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Gusty northerly winds
will accompany the fall air and make it feel a little colder
than the thermometer reads. An area of high pressure will slowly
drift across the area through the weekend as the next cold front
marches in our direction. That front will bring our next rain
chances, which look likely even if the amount of rain forecast
is not terribly high.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar and satellite imagery currently shows a few isolated
shower over interior NH and central ME, with mostly cloudy to
overcast skies being reported across the region. A few more
showers are possible this evening as more light showers move
eastward. Mostly cloudy skies are expected to continue through
the remainder of the evening.

A frontal boundary moves south, allowing for a few isolated
showers to pop-up in the mountains tonight. Winds should start
light, but pick up early tomorrow morning after the front moves
through. Clear skies and calm winds through most of the night
should allow for some radiational cooling initially, but
overnight temps and a warmer column of air will keep lows on the
warmer side tonight. Lows in the lower 40s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned upper-level low continues to move southward
through the day on Wednesday. Low-level vorticity associated
with this upper-level low should provide enough spin to develop
a weak frontal passage Wednesday morning. The front will move
southeastward through the day, allowing for increased cloudiness
and breezy NW winds across the area. Skies will clear out and
stronger NW winds are expected behind the front, with it
reaching the Gulf of Maine by mid-afternoon. High temperatures
will range from upper 40s up north, to around 60F along the
coast.

Wednesday night, breezy northwest winds will continue to bring
a colder air column into the region. Winds will also prevent
radiative cooling Wednesday night as well, with lows in the
mid-30s expected, upper 20s up north.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message: North flow will keep temps near to below normal for
most of the period. Offshore winds will also keep precip below
normal as well.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated.

Forecast Details: Anticyclonic wave break looks to foster a new
ocean storm deepening out in the northwest Atlantic by midweek.
This will keep a strong pressure gradient in place locally and
gusty winds are likely to continue into Thu. Low to mid level
winds are forecast to be strong enough to be something we see on
the order of every 2 to 5 years. Not extreme...but it will be
noticeably gusty. I opted to increase the NBM forecast using the
90th percentile and MOS guidance.

Otherwise gradual warming is expected thru the period ahead of
an approaching cold front. This will occur along with a gradual
decrease in winds and reversal in wind direction.

The pattern does start to get blocky as ocean low cuts off...so
there is model uncertainty with speed of said cold front. Some
guidance continue to put the front well into the forecast area
Sun...roughly 20 percent of available ensemble members. Given
the previous forecasts were higher PoP...I slowed down the
arrival by sharpening the gradient on the leading edge. But the
event itself looks like a good chance for rain but nothing to
write home about. The PWATs will not be all that anomalous and
the IVT will be weakening as it moves into the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Restrictions are likely to flirt between VFR and
MVFR this afternoon, as isolated showers and clouds may lower
CIGs intermittently. Conditions return to VFR as skies clear
overnight, except for LEB, HIE. LEB and HIE should stay MVFR as
a wave of low stratus moves through. The possibility of lowered
restrictions returns elsewhere tomorrow morning, with more low
stratus moving southeastward later in the day. After the frontal
passage, VFR returns as skies clear out tomorrow night.

Long Term...Largely VFR conditions expected thru Sun. Surface
wind gusts on Thu are forecast to be between 25 and 30 kt at
times.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Northeast winds and seas of 6-9ft are expected
this evening as a coastal low pushes away from the Gulf of
Maine. Winds will range from 15-25kts in coastal New Hampshire /
York county, with 8-14kts in marine zones east of Portland.
Winds and seas gradually die down overnight and shift to
northwesterlies at 7-12kts by tomorrow morning. Seas of 4-6ft
are expected through Thursday morning. Northwest winds
strengthen to SCA levels by the end of the day Wednesday. A weak
frontal passage tomorrow evening will enhance northwest winds
Wednesday night. Winds will at least be at SCA- levels Wednesday
night, though a few gales can not be ruled out either.

Long Term...Strong pressure gradient between ocean storm and
building high pressure will lead to potential gale force wind
gusts thru Thu night. Gale watch has been issued for the outer
waters until Fri morning. Winds will then quickly diminish as
high pressure shifts east and flow becomes southwesterly.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>027.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150>154.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Palmer
SHORT TERM...Palmer
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Legro/Palmer
MARINE...Legro/Palmer