


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
801 FXUS61 KGYX 120735 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 335 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Broad low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will bring increased rain chances, gusty winds, and high surf through early week. The low will eventually be pushed east by a cold front midweek. Cooler temperatures arrive late week, particularly for the mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Messages: * Easterly fetch will build wave heights today and into tonight. Wave action will result in the high risk for dangerous rip currents today, continuing with higher waves overnight through Monday. Surface high pressure retreats into Atlantic Canada today, but will hold steady as broad low pressure pivots near the Mid- Atlantic coast. Combined flow between these pressure systems will bring a strong easterly component, and this will dictate our weather through Tuesday. Initially, this easterly air is dry, and it will stave off continuous precipitation from the area through today. Uneven saturation through the column will allow for some showers to develop as the day goes on, mainly for southern NH and the coastal waters. Increased cloud cover will limit high temps today, a couple degrees cooler than Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Key Messages: * Building waves will create high surf conditions late tonight through Monday. Rip current risk remains high, with the added impact of localized beach erosion. View wave action from a distance, not on rock outcrops or land exposed to crashing waves. * Wind gusts increase tonight into Monday morning with ENE gusts up to 30 mph possible mainly along the coast and some interior higher terrain. Low level jet strength will be greatest tonight across southern New England. This combined with moisture advection aloft will result in rain slowly overspreading southern NH into southern ME through the night. There remains uncertainty how far north the steadier rain pushes, as high pres to the north will still be opposing with low level dry air. By the time Monday daylight arrives, low level flow is southeasterly. This will be a more favorable path for deeper moisture to make its way into NH and southern ME. Can expect additional steady rain to occur, with a half inch to an inch of rainfall for much of NH south of the mountains through Monday. Will continue to monitor wind gusts overnight into Monday as there are a few solutions that allow better mixing in the low levels. This could result in a few stronger gusts at times, most frequent along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... By Monday night, the coastal low will be starting to wind down a little bit, but rain chances will continue to hang on through the night and into Tuesday. When all is said and done, it still appears that southern New Hampshire and portions of coastal Maine will see the highest totals. Here, NBM probabilities suggest medium to high chances for at least an inch of rain and low to medium chances for at least 2 inches. NBM spread for 48 hour totals has narrowed a little bit but remains large, which makes sense given that our area is on the northern fringes of the system. Northeast winds will also be starting to relax overnight but we could still see some 20 to 25 knot sustained values out over the waters with some 30 to 35 knot gusts. Thus, hazardous marine conditions may hang through at least Tuesday. Most of the area will remain in cyclonic flow aloft through Wednesday or Thursday which could lead to some lingering showers/sprinkles but nothing major. Ridging will then start to approach by the weekend which should lead to mainly dry conditions. Regarding temperatures, we will see highs mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday with cooler temperatures for most on Wednesday. Thursday will be the coldest day of the week with forecast highs ranging from the mid to upper 30s across portions of the north, to the low to mid 50s south. As the ridging approaches by the end of the week and into the weekend, temperatures should warm back to around normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Fog and low stratus early this morning will generally consolidate in southern NH with visibility improving after daybreak. MVFR ceilings likely continue for southern NH terminals today, with SCT IFR. SHRA slowly pushes north this afternoon into the overnight, with RA more steady into Monday. Ceiling restrictions of MVFR/IFR are most likely south and along PWM to IZG to LEB through Monday. Long Term...Restrictions are possible Monday night through at least Tuesday, especially across southern New Hampshire and along the coast, as a coastal low continues to bring widespread IFR to MVFR ceilings and precipitation. && .MARINE... Short Term...Wave heights build today and tonight as easterly flow intensifies. 1 to 2 ft waves this morning will become 7 to 10 ft by Mon morning. This is driven by increasing winds today with Gales in the coastal waters off much of the southern ME coast and NH Seacoast tonight. A few gusts to Gale force will be possible off the coast of the coasts of Vinalhaven/Isle au Haut, but of less frequency than further south. Long Term...Hazardous marine conditions are likely to be ongoing Monday night, potentially lasting until mid to late week. Gusty winds and high seas will be ongoing Monday night and will slowly relax through the day on Tuesday. Gale-force winds will be possible Monday evening before diminishing and SCA conditions will be likely through at least Tuesday night. SCA conditions could hang on through the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Steady easterly winds will build water along the coast through early week, coinciding with high surf and astronomical tides around 10 to 10.5 ft (at CASM1). The result may be high tides nearing minor flood stage as well as splashover surrounding the high tide time. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Risk for Rip Currents from noon EDT today through this evening for MEZ023>027. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MEZ023>027. NH...High Risk for Rip Currents from noon EDT today through this evening for NHZ014. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-151-153. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ152-154. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Cornwell SHORT TERM...Cornwell LONG TERM...Hargrove