539
FXUS61 KGYX 222018
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
318 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
It remains very cold across the region today but we have turned
the corner on the worst of the Arctic air mass. Tonight will
feature increasing clouds and a few flurries, so temperatures
while cold, will be warmer than the past couple of nights. The
real moderation begins Thursday as temperatures climb back into
the 20s. That gradual warm up continues for the rest of the week
along with the occasional chance for mountain snow showers or
flurries.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure begins to shift east of the area tonight as an upper
wave approaches, and even though winds remain very light, WAA and
the upper wave will bring increasing and lowering clouds this
evening and tonight. These clouds are expected to cause temperatures
to level off and even come up slightly tonight, but it looks like
there will still be an opportunity for good radiational cooling
early on, especially across eastern areas where clouds probably
arrive a little later. The forecast shows temperatures dropping
quickly around and just after sunset this evening, similar to
yesterday and then eventually plateauing/coming up a bit
overnight. I mostly have lows in the positive single digits,
except a few degrees below zero in the normally colder
spots...and other areas still could see lows drop below zero if
the clouds arrive a little later. On the flip side, temps may
not get as cold if the clouds arrive quicker. The bottom line
is not as cold as the previous two nights and also wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few flurries either as cloud bases lower, but
there will be quite a bit of dry air in the low levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure shifts farther east during the day Thursday with the
shortwave aloft moving through, and skies will likely stay mostly
cloudy into the afternoon. Hi-res guidance is advertising the
potential for a few ocean-effect snow showers for the Midcoast, but
the trajectory of the flow may also keep these confined to Downeast
Maine. Another area favored for light snow will be in the mountains
where the low-level moisture is more conducive, but accums should be
limited to a light dusting. The rest of the area may see some
flurries from time to time, but again the low levels will be quite
dry. Once the waves passes in the afternoon, clouds will start
decreasing from west to east with NH expected to see more in the way
of sunshine. High temperatures will return to the 20s for most,
maybe even reaching 30 in southern NH, but it will be somewhat
breezy with southwest winds gusting 20-25 mph.

Skies will continue to clear out south of the mountains in the
evening, and with most areas expected to decouple, I have trended
the forecast toward colder guidance with good radiational cooling
possible. More clouds and a few snow showers could hang around in
the mountains with flow becoming more upslope behind a weak front,
and this may keep temperatures from dropping as much there.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message: Temps will remain near to below normal thru the
extended. Dry, offshore winds will keep precip chances below normal
as well.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated thru the
early next week.

Forecast Details: Once again there are not many details and very
little change from previous forecast to share with the extended.

The dominant pattern remains western CONUS ridging which will tend
to promote lower heights/trofing over the eastern CONUS. While the
trof may not be the deepest...it does look like it will be
reinforced every couple of days by passing S/WV trofs. As a result
temps will average out to be below normal...even if a day or two may
sneak above normal for a max or min.

The primary moisture source will be the Pacific...so there will be
little to work with by the time it reaches New England. Upslope snow
showers in northwesterly flow will be the most frequent precip
maker...but a stronger S/WV trof may be able to expand the coverage
of snow showers across most of the forecast area. This may happen
roughly around the Fri...Sun...and Tue time frames.

Very late in the period another very cold air mass will descend into
eastern Canada. That Tue S/WV trof will push a cold front thru the
region and another round of very cold air is possible
locally...though probably not as cold as the current air mass.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR the rest of today. A weak disturbance will
then bring increasing and lowering clouds tonight, but ceilings
are still expected to remain mostly VFR. The exceptions might be
at HIE and RKD where there could be a brief period of
restrictions of MVFR ceilings and light snow showers Thursday.
Expect decreasing clouds late Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night with VFR continuing, but HIE again stands the
chance of MVFR ceilings and a snow shower due to upslope flow.

Long Term...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of the
extended. Occasional MVFR CIGs are possible around HIE when upslope
snow showers are likely...but otherwise the relatively meager
moisture will keep any CIGs VFR...or keep MVFR from being frequent
and/or prolonged.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure shifts starts to shift east of the
waters tonight with increasing southwest winds, which look to
reach SCA levels Thursday morning. Winds look to fall below SCA
levels either late Thursday evening or Thursday night as a weak
front crosses the waters and shift winds out of the
west/northwest.

Long Term...Cold air masses and westerly flow will likely mean SCA
conditions are possible for much of the extended. There looks like a
break in SCA conditions to start the period Fri but later Sat winds
and seas will be increasing again and continuing into early next
week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for
     ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for
     ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Combs
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Combs/Legro
MARINE...Combs/Legro