130
FXUS61 KGYX 092259 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
559 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses the Northeast tonight and Sunday for fair
weather. A warm front lifts through the region Sunday night
followed by a strong cold front crossing Tuesday. These fronts
will bring chances for precipitation, while amounts will be
light. High pressure builds back into New England Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

Previous discussion...The fast moving flow at 500 MB helps us
quickly build a sfc ridge in over the CWA tonight, which then
starts to shift tour SE early Sunday morning. Wind should
diminish this evening, most likely within an hour or two of
sunset, and become light/variable. Skies have cleared out
already, so will see decoupling in the sheltered areas around
sunset, and everywhere else mid-late evening, which which allow
temps to drop quickly producing mins mostly in the 20s, with
some upper teens possible in the normally colder mtn valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As the ridge slides SE on Sunday, expect SW winds to begin tom
increase toward midday, which should help push temps to near 50
in the mtns, and into the low to mid 50s S of the mtns. Most of
the day will be mainly sunny, although cirrus will start
filtering in through the day, with mid clouds likely in the W by
mid to late afternoon,

A fast moving and somewhat compact 500 MB closed low will cross
the Great Lakes on Sunday and then shift NE into S QC by early
Monday. The warm front associated with this system will cross
the region overnight, and should produce some showers or even a
period of steady light rain in the hours after midnight. It
could start a brief period of snow over the higher terrain in
the mtns. Lows will like occur late evening, bottoming out in
the mid to upper 30s in the N, to the low to mid 40s in the S,
with temperatures rising slowly in most spots during the pre-
dawn hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A pair of short wave troughs will track northwest of New England
Monday into Tuesday. These systems will bring chances for showers
followed by a shot of colder air late Tuesday into Wednesday. High
pressure slides across the Northeast Wednesday and Thursday with
moderating temperatures the second half of the week. There is a
growing signal for high latitude blocking forming near Greenland the
second half of the week with an upper low developing southeast of
Nova Scotia. The next chance of precipitation arrives around
Thursday as a trough approaches from the west, while models diverge
in the evolution of this system and the cut off low to our east.

An upper low of the central Plains will lift northeastward the next
36 hours and will pass northwest of the region Monday. All the
while, a northern stream short wave will race across southern Canada
and swings across New England Monday night. The 12Z model suite is
in decent agreement that these waves will not quite phase leading to
more in the way of showers with light QPF. Warm air advection ahead
of these waves will bring temperatures into the mid 60s south of the
mountains Monday. The second short wave will send a cold front
across the area Tuesday for additional chances for showers with rain
changing to snow showers in the mountains. Strong CAA behind the
front and good mixing will bring gusty NW winds across the area
Tuesday.

High pressure builds in along the East Coast Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This will allow for winds to subside and mostly sunny
skies. Highs of Wednesday will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than
Monday and will range from the 30s north to the 40s across the
south. High pressure along the East Coast starts to compress from a
trough approaching from the west and an upper low southeast of Nova
Scotia Thursday. Various model solutions bring chances for
precipitation from the approaching trough or the upper low
retrograding into the Canadian Maritimes while others keep the area
dry. Have mainly stuck with the NBM for PoPs through the end of the
period, which brings chance to slight chances Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Gusty winds diminish early this evening. VFR expected
into early Sunday evening, but will likely see MVFR-IFR later
Sunday evening into early Monday morning in RA and low cigs.

Long Term...Scattered showers and low cigs will bring potential for
MVFR to IFR Monday morning with improving conditions Monday
afternoon. Mainly VFR Monday night and Tuesday south of the
mountains while KHIE will see potential restrictions in low cigs and
SHRASN. A cold front crosses Tuesday bring a period of gusty NW
winds around 25-30 kts. VFR is likely for all TAF sites
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA now in place for all the waters through 00Z, as
high pressure builds across the waters. Should stay below SCA
levels into Sunday evening, but may need an SCA in increasing SW
flow behind a warm front Sunday night.

Long Term...SW winds and building seas bring SCA conditions Monday into
Tuesday morning. A cold front crosses Tuesday shifting winds out of
the NW with gusts approaching gale force along the outer waters.
Winds and seas drop below SCA thresholds Wednesday as high pressure
builds into New England.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Schroeter