381
FXUS61 KGYX 070849
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
349 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure begins to build in across New England today
behind a passing cold front. A stronger front moves through
tomorrow afternoon, with high pressure moving in for the
weekend. Scattered showers return early next week with a broad
trough of low pressure before high pressure and mainly dry
conditions return by the middle of next week along with near
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak cold front continues to gradually sag southward across
northern New England this morning. Temps initially jump into
the mid 60s across southern areas, before cooling through the
50s during the afternoon. Cooler air is already filtering in
from north to south, which keeps highs limited to the 50s and
40s further north. A few scattered sprinkles accompany the
front, but otherwise a mainly dry passage is expected. Breezy
conditions follow the front this afternoon, with westerly wind
gusts of 20-25 mph. Mainly cloudy skies are expected north of
the mountains with upslope conditions, but increasing sunshine
is expected south of the mountains through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Relatively cooler conditions are expected tonight as lows cool
into the 30s across most of the region. A crossing axis of high
pressure allows winds to become light overnight, with a period
of decent radiational cooling conditions. The next stronger cold
front approaches from the north overnight, with a few showers
reaching far northern areas by daybreak tomorrow. Elsewhere, a
mainly quiet and clear night is expected.

The stronger front moves through during the daytime tomorrow
from north to south. This brings another wide range in temps,
with highs in the low 60s along the southern coasts, while north
of the mountains remains in the mid 40s. The front brings a
couple broken lines of the showers that gradually weaken as they
move southward.

The first line of showers ahead of the front reaches northern
locations during the morning hours, but looks likely to
dissipate before making much progress south of the mountains.
The next line of showers arrives during the afternoon hours and
looks a little more robust and organized. Some gusty showers are
likely and perhaps some small graupel as well. These also
weaken as they move southward, but some scattered showers likely
reach the coast by the evening hours. A few snow showers are
then possible close to the Canadian border late tomorrow
afternoon and evening as the cooler air moves in behind the
front. Additionally, winds become gusty in the afternoon ahead
of the front, and behind the front. Wind gusts around 30 to 35
mph are likely across most of the area, with some gusts to 40
mph downwind of the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overview: A large dome of high pressure will build over the
eastern CONUS this weekend, resulting in continued dry
conditions and near seasonable temperatures. A weak trough of
low pressure and associated frontal boundary will then arrive
late Sunday night into Monday, bringing our best chance for
scattered showers. High pressure then looks to return by the
middle of next week with mainly dry conditions to follow.

Impacts: Drought conditions are expected to worsen as very
little appreciable rainfall is expected.

Forecast Details: The forecast begins with a mid-level s/wv
trough crossing the region on Friday and Friday night as sfc low
pressure moves across Quebec. A cold pool aloft combined with
sfc heating will result in building cloud cover during the
afternoon but other than scattered showers over the
north/mountains, most locations should remain dry. Highs will
range from the 40s to lower 60s from north to south. Westerly
winds will become northwesterly with gusts between 25-30 mph.
Skies will gradually clear from south to north on Friday night
with lows into the 20s and 30s.

Heights will rise on Saturday through Sunday as sfc high
pressure builds to our south before moving offshore by Sunday
evening. This will allow for dry conditions both days with highs
into the 40s/low 50s and lows mostly into the 20s. A weak
trough of low pressure and associated frontal boundary will then
cross late Sunday night into Monday, bringing our best chance
for widespread scattered showers. High pressure then looks to
return by the middle of next week with near to a bit above
average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...A period of MVFR ceilings is likely at HIE most of
the day today, with a return to VFR late this afternoon.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail through tomorrow. MVFR
ceilings are likely again at HIE tomorrow afternoon, along with
some scattered showers. MVFR ceilings are possible at LEB late
tomorrow afternoon. Westerly wind gusts up to around 30 kts are
likely at all terminals tomorrow afternoon.

Long Term...VFR conditions will dominate through the period.
Winds will be predominantly out of the west-northwest at 10-20
kts, although gusts on Friday could approach 30 kts. Some
restrictions are possible late Sunday night into Monday within
scattered -SHRA and lower ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A few westerly gusts to 25 kts are possible across
the outer waters this afternoon behind a passing cold front. A
stronger front approaches tomorrow, with SCA conditions likely
in southwesterly winds ahead of the front, and then again in
northwesterly winds behind the front.

Long Term...SCA conditions likely through Saturday with west-
northwesterly wind gusts 25-30 kts and seas of 3-4 ft (highest
outside of the bays). There is a low-end chance for some gusts
approaching 35 kts across the outer waters during this
timeframe.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday
     for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Tubbs