346
FXUS61 KGYX 092216
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
616 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will bring isolated to scattered snow showers through
this evening. Weak low pressure quickly passes out of Quebec
across the area late tonight and early Monday morning, bringing
another round of light snow. High pressure then builds in
through Tuesday with a warming temperature trend continuing. A
cold front passes Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High
pressure then returns for the end of the week through the first
half of the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
610 PM Update...Plenty of snow showers and some squalls continue
in the the mountains and foothills as of this writing and should
continue for a few hours. A few may make it to the coast before
ending. Otherwise, weak WAA will ensue after midnight allowing
for light snow to overspread the area, mainly central and
northern zones. Have moved the axis of best snowfall rates a
little farther north than previously forecast based on new
information.

Previously...

A frontal boundary and wave aloft are currently in the process
of moving through the region. The increasing moisture/lift has
brought in mostly cloudy skies this afternoon with a good
signature for snow showers in the mountains. As flow becomes
more unblocked through the afternoon, there`s increasing
potential for these to spill over into the foothills and
interior, potentially making it all the way to the coast. There
is sufficient low-level instability for a couple of these to be
heavy or possibly even a squall or two, and latest SPC
mesoanalysis supports this with the snow squall parameter
increasing to 1 to 3 in the mountains and across western ME this
afternoon with the main concerns being gusty winds and rapid
reductions in visibility.

Any snow showers that develop south of the mountains will wane
around sunset with the loss of daytime instability and as this
initial wave/front pushes east of the area. Winds will also
follow a downward trend into this evening but may remain
somewhat gusty an hour or two past sunset. Except for upslope
snow showers in the mountains, shortwave ridging then very
briefly builds providing a lull in precip through the rest of
the evening.

The next wave quickly approaches after midnight with light snow
overspreading much of the area overnight. Models have really
struggled with this system over last several days but seem to have
finally converged more on the location/amplitude of the wave and
favor central NH and southwestern ME and moreso areas to the north
and east for seeing more potential for snow. In general,
expecting these areas to see between 1 to 2 inches of snow with
locally up to 3 inches possible, and rates could approach 1"
per hour in the 4AM to 7AM from the Maine Lakes Region to the
Kennebec Valley and Midcoast per the HREF probabilities and
snowband probabilities from WPC. This could lead to difficult
travel and slick roads for the morning commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The bulk of the light snow is expected to fall prior to 7 or
8AM, but some of the hi-res guidance has it lingering over
portions of the coast and interior through 10 AM, so there is a
slight chance through this time to account for this. Once the
wave passes, we could see a few hours of breezy conditions in
the morning (25 to 35 mph), especially over southern NH. Winds
will be lighter in the afternoon as the gradient relaxes and as
high pressure builds in. Drying and subsidence from the high
pressure will also diminish cloud cover with skies becoming
partly sunny into the afternoon. Temperatures will get into the
40s most of the area with low 50s possible in southern NH. In
the mountains, upslope flow will keep skies mostly cloudy with a
chance of rain and snow showers through the afternoon.

High pressure slides east Monday night bringing a return to light
southerly flow. Low will be mostly in the 20s with some low 30s
possible near the coast and teens across some northern areas. Fog or
low stratus may also develop with the return flow in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: The extended forecast will begin on a warm note with above
average temperatures and mainly dry conditions on Tuesday. A cold
front will then cross Tuesday night with cooler more seasonable
temperatures to follow on Wednesday. A weak trof of low pressure may
result in a few scattered rain and snow showers on Wednesday but
otherwise mainly dry conditions and gradually moderating
temperatures look to prevail through Saturday. A potentially more
significant weather system may then bring widespread rain and gusty
winds Sunday night into Monday.

Impacts: No significant weather related impacts are expected Tuesday
through Saturday. There is a low-end chance for heavy rainfall and
gusty winds Sunday night into Monday but forecast confidence at this
time range is low.

Forecast Details: The forecast begins with New England sitting
within a broad warm sector on Tuesday with closed low pressure
passing near Hudson Bay. This will send h925 temperatures up to
around +5C to +7C from north to south, allowing high temperatures to
range from the upper 40s across the north to around 60 degrees in
southern NH. Cooler readings will be common along the coast due to
gusty southerly winds off the cold Gulf of Maine. Skies will be
partly sunny. A sfc cold front will then cross Tuesday night but
will bring little in the way of precipitation, other than a few snow
showers across the north and mtns. Lows will range from the teens to
lower 30s from north to south.

Cool Canadian high pressure will then build over New England on
Wednesday, resulting in seasonably cool high temperatures into the
20s to lower 40s from north to south. A weak trof of low pressure
will then cross Wednesday night into Thursday morning, possibly
resulting in a few scattered rain and snow showers. Highs on
Thursday will generally be into the 30s and 40s with lows into
the 20s and lower 30s. Moderating temperatures and mainly dry
conditions then look to follow for Friday and Saturday with
afternoon readings reaching the 50s to lower 60s.

Our attention then turns towards a potentially more significant
storm system that could bring widespread rainfall and gusty winds
late Sunday or Sunday night and lasting through part of Monday.
There are some signals for locally heavy rainfall and strong winds
with this system along with warm temperatures resulting in snow
melt. We are still a week out though and therefore while its too
early to start ringing alarm bells this will need to be monitored
through this week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR into this evening, but brief snow
showers could result in brief IFR conditions and gusty winds.
Higher potential is at HIE, AUG, and RKD with lower potential
elsewhere. A weak low pressure then moves through New England
overnight and into early Monday morning bringing a round of
light snow. IFR to MVFR restrictions are mostly likely north and
east of a LEB to PWM line through 13 to 14Z. Mostly VFR then
expected Monday except MVFR cigs/vsby possible at HIE through
the day Monday. Monday night may feature restrictions due to fog
and/or low stratus.

Long Term...VFR conditions will prevail Tuesday through Friday.
There is a low-end chance for scattered rain and snow showers
Wednesday night into Thursday, which could result in some
restrictions. Gusty southerly winds are likely on Tuesday with
some gusts approaching 25-30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions wane this evening and tonight, but
a weak low will move across the waters from the W/WNW overnight
and early Monday and could bring another brief increase winds.
Conditions then remain below SCA levels through Monday night as
high pressure builds across the waters during the day Monday and
then slides to the east Monday night, bringing a return to
southerly flow.

Long Term...Southerly wind gusts up to 30 kts are possible on
Tuesday and Tuesday night with seas outside of the bays of 4-6
ft. Otherwise, winds and seas will largely remain below SCA
levels through the period.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Combs
SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM...Tubbs
AVIATION...
MARINE...