952
FXUS61 KGYX 281536
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1036 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a breezy day today another low crosses just north of the
area tonight and Saturday, bringing more accumulating snow with
yet again a transition to rain along the coastal plain. A shot
of colder air works into the region Sunday and Monday as high
pressure builds in from the west. High pressure moves offshore
around Tuesday leading to a warming trend through the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1035 AM...Cold front and accompanying showers have moved off the
coast and have made some adjustments to PoPs and sky cover to
align with these trends. Gusty WNW winds will continue through
the afternoon.

830 AM...Latest radar shows snow showers moving through the
mountains becoming a bit more robust with some light returns
moving down stream of the mountains. Recent run of the HRRR also
suggest these showers will try and maintain themselves into the
coastal plain so have increased PoPs based on these latest
trends.

Previously...Expecting a generally pretty good day today,
although will be on the breezy with some gusts to 25-30 mph from
the W, but mostly sunny outside the mtns. Morning clouds and
upslope SHSN in the mtns should start to break up for at least a
partly sunny afternoon there. Also, given that a narrow wedges
of high pressure will move in from the west this afternoon,
should see winds diminish somewhat during mid afternoon. Highs
range from the mid to upper 20s in the mtns, to the mid to upper
30s in the S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Our next precip making system will be fast moving sfc low
pressure tracking from near Georgian Bay this evening through
Montreal early Saturday and across the crown of ME Saturday
afternoon. Unlike Thursdays system, this low stay to our N, so
most of out precip will come from the WAA ahead of the system
tonight. IT will start as snow and should begin mid to late
evening in NH, and around midnight or shortly thereafter in ME.
The best dynamic forcing is well to our N, and even the best
thermal forcing stay closer to the intl border, so QPF amts are
lower than the Thursday system. Warmer air will move in from the
S, and change things over to rain in S NH and coastal in the
pre-dawn hours, but for most of the area the precip will be
winding down in the 11-15Z range. So snowfall amounts generally
range from 1-3across much of the area, with lesser amounts in
SE NH and along the ME coast. Higher amounts are possible near
the intl border. Tonight mins will likely be around or just
after midnight, especially S of the mtns, and range from around
10 in the mtns to the mid to upper 20s in the far S.

By mid Saturday morning, most of the CWA will be in the warm
sector with some clearing S of the mtns, and highs mid to upper
30s in the mtns to the mid to upper 40s in the S. On Saturday
afternoon will see arctic sfc from start to move SE across the
region, and will likely see a line of showers moving SE out of
the mtns. This has the potential to produce some snow squalls in
the mtns and maybe foothills, but it looks too warm further
south and these may end up mostly rain showers, if that make it
that far S and E given the weaker forcing there.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
955 PM Update...New model information including the 01z NBM has
have come in with reasonable agreement with the earlier
forecast.

Previously...

The extended forecast will lead to large swings in temperatures
for the long term. Here are the details...

Latest operational guidance and ensemble solutions suggest yet
another area of low pressure will attempt to track northeast up the
Saint Lawrence County on Saturday. It appears cold air damming will
keep low level atmosphere profiles on the chilly side as we head
into early Saturday morning with predominantly snow exiting the
forecast area with perhaps some rain or possibly mix along the
Midcoast region. By the end of the day however mixing along the
departing system will allow for mild temperatures to climb to
into the 30s and 40s by late in the day.

Strong cold air advection will bring H8 temperatures down to as low
as -20C across the far north Saturday night. This will allow
for low wind chill values and air temperatures in the single
numbers north to the teens south. Upslope snow showers are
possible in the usual suspect cases of the northwest facing
terrain.

A large area of high pressure will build in from the west Sunday,
Monday and even into Tuesday. This will allow for dry conditions
with a gradual moderating trend.

Ensemble solutions suggest the next chance for a significant weather
system will arrive mid to late next week (possibly the late
Wednesday/Thursday time frame) with low pressure potentially
tracking west of the Saint Lawrence River Valley. This will allow
for rain to enter the region along with increasing surface dew
points on a strong, gusty southernly gradient. This would lead to
more snow melt and the potential movement of some ice on area
rivers.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term... Some terminals are bouncing around a bit with
fog, as initially wind shift had enough push to mix down, but
now some decoupling is occurring, and will likely have to wait
for sunrise to mix out again. Otherwise, it does look like
mainly VFR today into early evening, with some W wind gusts to
around 25 kt. Will conditions deteriorate from W -E mi evening
through just after midnight as light snow moves in, bring
terminals down to IFR at times, although, cigs may not drop off
much below 1000 ft in some places. Flight restrictions linger
into early Saturday, but should VFR outside of KHIE, and maybe
KLEB through the day Sat.


Long Term...Precipitation continues over the region on Saturday
as low pressure crosses the region with snow in the north and
rain with mixed precipitation in the south. IFR and LIFR
conditions expected which will be improve Saturday night as
winds become westerly and drier air enters the region. High
pressure will allow for dry conditions Sunday and Monday. Warm
air advection with scattered snow showers expected on Tuesday
with areas of MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...W wind increases this morning with SCA gusts
expected through the daylight hours, but winds should subside
late this afternoon and this evening, but will pick up again on
Saturday.

Long Term...Winds increase out of the south ahead of a system on
Saturday with building seas. This will send us above SCA
thresholds. Winds will switch out of the west before veering to
the northwest by Sunday, again gusting over SCA thresholds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As low pressure crosses the region on Saturday, it will maximize
storm surge values in the Gulf of Maine. The ETSS and ESTOFS
runs were in very good agreement today, with the ESTOFS run have
a greater change in values from hour to hour, making for a more
potentially changeable forecast. In any case, even the SNAP
model indicates around a foot of surge during high tide on the
1st which will be the highest astronomical tide of the month at
11.0 feet in Portland Harbor. Minor flooding and/or splash-over
can be expected from Portland and points south along the coast.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cempa/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Cannon/Ekster