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FXUS61 KGYX 201715 AAB
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
115 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides fair weather today. A cold front drops
south tonight through Sunday that will bring the chance for
isolated showers. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions continue into
Monday. Moisture increases Tuesday with daily chances for
showers and afternoon thunderstorms into Friday. High pressure
looks to return for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM Update: Only very minor changes to the forecast this
morning to align near term temperatures and dewpoints with mid
morning observations. 12Z GYX RAOB shows robust subsidence
inversion around 790 MB which...with a relatively dry boundary
beneath suggesting some scattered clouds with some high clouds
also streaming overhead from shower activity across the Mid
Atlantic. A warm/dry afternoon is expected with highs south of
the mountains reaching well into the 80s.

630 AM Update...Minor changes were made to sky cover and
temperatures to reflect observational trends.

Previously...

High pressure centered south of New England will allow for
another day of fair weather today. Skies will start off mostly
clear outside of some patchy valley fog early this morning.
Waves of low pressure moving through the Mid-Atlantic will
spread some cirrus into southern areas this afternoon. A cold
front dropping south through Quebec will lead to steady WSW
winds through the afternoon. These steady WSW winds will limit
the inland penetration of a sea breeze with highs generally in
the mid to upper 80s with comfortable humidity levels as
dewpoints will be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The cold front in Quebec will start to weaken as it approaches
northern zones tonight. This front will bring scattered showers
across the north tonight. Winds also look to remain steady
overnight limiting radiational cooling. Lows will not drop as
low as last night and will range from the 50s north to the 60s
across the south.

The cold front continues to weaken as sinks into southern zones
Sunday. Mesoscale models generally keep the forecast area dry
as the front drops south of the mountains while an isolated
shower cannot be ruled out. Highs on Sunday will range from the
70s across the north to mid 80s across the south with winds
shifting more northwesterly.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview...

A stalled front lingers over New England into the middle of
week as a ridge builds in from the southeast, bringing
increasing moisture and chances for showers and storms. It takes
until late in the week for the next front to push through to
bringing any meaningful clearing as high pressure gradually
builds in from the west.

Details...

The front wobbles back and forth for a few days, with scattered
showers and storms developing in the afternoon. Monday looks
like the best chance for a dry day, with the front most likely
south of our forecast area.

By Tuesday, the front begins to drift northward with increasing
moisture as the ridge builds along the Northeast coast. This
threat increases into Wednesday as the front remains nearby
while moisture continues to increase. Wednesday looks to feature
the most widespread threat for showers and storms. There is the
threat for some areas of heavier rainfall, but we`ll have to
wait until we`re closer in time to try to pin down these
locations and see where the stalled front has drifted to by that
timeframe.

By Thursday, a weak wave of low pressure may try to develop and
drift along the front as a stronger cold front approaches from
the west. Showers and storms are likely again on Thursday with
these features, but then chances drop by Friday as high pressure
begins to build in from the west behind the front.

In terms of temperatures, temps look to remain warm for Sunday
and into the first part of the week as the humidity increases.
Wednesday and Thursday look like the only chances for highs to
get close to or just a hair below normal with the rain and
clouds. Then by Friday and into next weekend temps warm again as
the sunshine returns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...

Summary: A cold front crosses the region from north to south late
tonight and Sunday with clouds and a few showers before much drier
air moves into the region with clearing skies late Sunday and Sunday
night.

Restrictions: VFR conditions are expected to dominate the period
through Sunday night. Increased cloud cover tonight will likely
limit fog development except at LEB where there is potential for
fog just before daybreak. Any shower activity is expected to be
light and...while some localized restrictions are possible...
confidence is not high enough to include mention of them in this
afternoon/s TAF package.

Winds:  Outside of a robust seabreeze for coastal locations...
southwest winds around 10kts will gradually diminish with all sites
5kts or less for the overnight.  Winds become northwesterly and
increase to 8g15kts for the day on Sunday with some potential
for a seabreeze again at PSM. Winds go calm/light-variable
Sunday night.

LLWS: LLWS is not expected through Sunday night.

Lightning: There is a very low /20%/ potential for thunder at
CON-PWM-AUG Sunday afternoon.

Long Term...Mainly VFR prevails during the daytime Monday
through Tuesday, with nighttime valley fog likely each night. A
stray afternoon shower or storm may bring brief restrictions at
any terminal each day. On Wednesday and Thursday, showers and
storms look more frequent with restrictions at times. VFR likely
prevails from Friday into next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds today
through Sunday with high pressure centered south of New England
today. A weak cold front approaches the waters tonight shifting
winds out of the SW and then briefly out of the NW Sunday
morning before winds turn back onshore Sunday afternoon.

Long Term...A front stalls and lingers across the waters on
through early next week. Areas of locally dense fog are
possible starting on Tuesday. These conditions continue through
the middle of the week as a weak wave of low pressure moves
along the front Wednesday and Thursday. Pressure gradients
remain weak through next week, so conditions mostly look to stay
below SCA levels.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Arnott