550
FXUS61 KGYX 041422
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1022 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control of the weather for most of the
week. A weak frontal boundary will bring isolated showers today
and then cool temperatures off on Tuesday and Wednesday before
increasing once again towards the end of the week. Overall
conditions will remain mostly dry, except for a few passing
showers in the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10am Update...Quick update for expected sea breeze this
afternoon and increasing shower chances in the Midcoast region
this afternoon into early evening. Will be assessing shower
chances on Tuesday. HREF runs do depict some stationary showers
over western NH terrain that could produce local maximums of
QPF.

Previous Discussion...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early this Monday
morning shows mainly clear skies over the area with some clouds
over southern Quebec and northern ME in association with a few
dissipating showers. Current temperatures range from the lower
50s in some interior valleys with 60s in most other locations.
Some additional cooling can be expected through sunrise.

Canadian high pressure will remain over Quebec today as a weak
surface cold front sinks south over northern New England. Skies
will be mainly sunny but Canadian wildfire smoke will persist
again today with air quality alerts in place through 11PM this
evening for all of Maine and New Hampshire. Highs will be into
the upper 70s across the north with middle and upper 80s further
south. A few spots could touch the 90 degree mark but relatively
low dew points will keep heat indices near air temperatures.
Much of the region will remain dry but an isolated shower/rumble
of thunder cannot be ruled out late day as an advancing sea
breeze boundary moves inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Clear skies this evening will become partly cloudy overnight.
This will limit low temperatures a little but readings should
still fall into the 50s and lower 60s in most locations.

High pressure will remain in place on Tuesday behind the front
with partly cloudy skies and comfortable high temperatures into
the lower to middle 80s south of the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     High Impact Weather...
* No high impact weather is expected

* Cumulative drying will continue this week
except for mountain thunderstorms.

Mostly quiet weather expected in the extended period with no strong
frontal features. Pattern will consist of a broad 500mb trough to
our north in Canada and very weak zonal flow to our south. Tuesday
through Wednesday the surface ridge will be centered to our north
allowing for weak easterly flow along the decaying stalled frontal
boundary. A few afternoon storms over the mountains cant be ruled
out on Tuesday afternoon and maybe Wednesday afternoon, but
everywhere else will remain dry. Thursday into Friday the surface
ridge begins to slide to the southeast with return southerly flow
becoming established along with building heights aloft. Low chance
for an isolated storm continues over the terrain, but very low
chance pops in the consensus forecast remain. Temperatures along
with surface dewpoints will be on the upswing as the relatively
drier air we have been experiencing moves out of the area. Guidance
is beginning to hint at a building east coast ridge axis aloft along
with the surface high off the coast. Expect it to be hot and mostly
rain free next weekend at this point with a continued uptick in the
humidity. Overall most areas will not see any measurable
precipitation in this period with above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions are generally expected through the
period. HZ/K is likely through the day at all TAF sites with
perhaps some MVFR visibility restrictions at times. An isolated
SHRA is also possible late day but most sites will remain dry.
Winds will be light and variable, although a sea breeze will
move inland this afternoon across coastal sites. No LLWS is
anticipated.

Long Term...No significant aviation weather impacts expected through
this period with limited stratus incursions expected as high
pressure and relatively low dewpoints keep the threat for low marine
stratus low through Thursday. Some valley fog is possible at KLEB
and KHIE.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds
through the period as high pressure remains near or over the
waters.

Long Term...Seas will remain below SCA conditions with a persistent
area of high pressure over the coastal waters next week. No
significant moisture pushes are expected until late this week, so
the fog threat remains low until Friday or Saturday.  Thunderstorm
activity also looks very limited.  One thing that will have to be
watched is the potential for some long period swell from a
developing tropical low off the Carolina coast. If this storm
gets more organized, could see some swell in the Gulf of Maine
Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028-033.
NH...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NHZ001>015.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cornwell/Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Dumont