803
FXUS61 KGYX 241810
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
210 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The rip current risk will remain elevated through today as
swell gradually tapers off. A slow moving front will approach
from the Great Lakes this afternoon with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible across western New Hampshire. The cold
front moves through Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the area. An upper trough will
remain over the Northeast through much of next week favoring
below normal temperatures with few opportunities for
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected

Some showers associated with a shortwave are moving through the
mountains this afternoon with some isolated thunder. This
activity will continue into the evening before all but ceasing
early on tonight. Overnight toward the early hours of tomorrow
morning may see shower/storm chances reinvigorate, once again in
the mountains. These showers will be mainly on the lighter side
with an isolated rumble of thunder possible. Increasing cloud
cover will hold tonight`s lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Patchy fog development is likely with the increasing low level
moisture as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather impacts expected

The latest hi-res guidance does agrees that locations along the
Connecticut River Valley and International Border should see
showers by the 8-9AM window. They also suggest some showers from
a low pressure system east of the Gulf of Maine mange to make
it onshore in the Midcoast area. These areas continue to be the
focus through the morning, before the broken line pushes
eastward toward the afternoon. This is where the models begin to
diverge as the HRRR continues to paint a robust area of
convection over southeastern New Hampshire and southwestern
Maine, and the NAMNest keeps things much more isolated. The
problem is that this wave really lacks deep moisture and that
will keep coverage of showers and storms more scattered to
isolated, at least south of the mountains. The mountains are the
most likely area to see some beneficial rainfall Monday, owing
to being in the proximity of the upper level jet which will help
to enhance rainfall there. Southern areas should stay clear
enough during the morning and early afternoon to climb into the
upper 70s and low 80s. The latest HREF suggests this could
amount to between 500 and 800 J/kg of CAPE developing which
would support a more robust line of afternoon convection. With
the jet overhead we may have around 45kts of stream- wise shear
as well which could get some stronger cells going. Mid level-
lapse rates in range of 5.5-6 C/km supports these being a more
isolated threat. With forecast soundings suggesting steep low
level lapse rates, and rightfully so with the dry air aloft, any
stronger storms could produce some gusty winds. CSU`s machine
learning model seems to agree as it paints a marginal area
through the center of the CWA. North of the mountains, where it
will stay cloudier, high temperatures will be limited to the
upper 60s and low 70s.

Dry air will quickly work in behind the front helping to bring
an end to showers early on in the night. The precipitation
trends have held steady since yesterday, with the bulk of the
rain expected to fall over the mountains, with 0.75 to around an
inch in some locations there. South of the mountains, I stayed
much more conservative, generally less than 0.25, however any of
the more robust storms can easily drop around half an inch, but
these will likely be more isolated. Some locations will see
beneficial rainfall, and others will get just a tease, or
nothing at all. Clear skies and light winds overnight should
allow for much of the area to decouple, so blended in some MAV
guidance to capture that. Low temperatures end up in the mid to
upper 40s north of the mountains and in the low to mid 50s to
the south. Some patchy valley fog and coastal fog is possible as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended forecast features little chances for precipitation
with ongoing drying and worsening drought conditions.

Starting Tuesday, post-frontal airmass takes over with breezy
W/WNW winds gusting 20-30 mph based on good mixing from forecast
soundings. I have also lowered afternoon Td/RH as drier air
from aloft is mixed down, making for fire sensitive conditions
with the breezy winds and ongoing dry conditions. Upslope flow
will bring cloudier skies and isolated to scattered showers in
the mountains with temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 60s to
low 70s. For areas downwind, highs will be mostly in the 70s
with a few spots in the lower 80s.

Mean troughing in the 500mb pattern across the Northeast will
allow a few shortwaves to cross through the rest of the week,
but with little moisture to work with, chances for any showers
will be very low and mostly confined to the mountains. A cold
front may bring a somewhat better potential late Thursday or
Thursday night into Friday, but current indications it will be
mainly across northern areas as the front looks to be weakening
as it approaches. So unfortunately, the ongoing drought
conditions do not look to improve.

High temperatures from Wednesday into next weekend are fairly
uniform and mostly in the 70s with low 80s on occasion. The dry
airmass will make for seasonably cool nights with lows falling
into the 40s to lower 50s.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Fog and/or IFR ceilings are likely at most
terminals tonight as low level moisture increases ahead of a
frontal system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will cross
the area from early morning Monday through the evening. Some
valley fog is possible Monday night, otherwise ceilings will
quickly clear to VFR and prevail through Tuesday.

Long Term...The Tuesday through Thursday period is expected to
feature mostly VFR except for chances of valley fog at HIE and
LEB at night and the early mornings. Precipitation chances will
be very low, although upslope flow may produce a few showers
near HIE on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. W to WNW winds may gust on
the order of 20-25 kt Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions continue into the overnight period
as residual swell from Erin continues to recede. Wind gusts and
seas will be below SCA criteria Monday, but expect to see some
showers and thunderstorms cross the waters Monday evening. SCA
waves may return Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure
passes to the east of the Gulf of Maine and builds seas to
around 5ft.

Long Term...SCA conditions are possible over the outer waters
on Tuesday, mainly for seas at or above 5 ft. For Wednesday into
next weekend, winds and seas are currently expected to remain
below SCA levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon humidity is forecast to fall into the 30-40% range
across most of the area on Tuesday. These values combined with
breezy W/WNW winds of 20-30 mph and ongoing dry conditions are
expected to produce fire sensitive conditions.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>025.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     151.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ152>154.

&&

$$


NEAR/SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Combs