479
FXUS61 KGYX 280529
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1229 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will cross New England today
bringing a round of snow showers and potential squalls,
especially in the mountains. After high pressure quickly moves
near the region Saturday into Saturday night, low pressure will
draw moisture and precipitation back into the region Sunday.
High pressure then tracks through New England Monday and Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A short wave trough will pass across northern New England
today. The SFC wind trajectory will be as such that some Great
Lakes moisture will be pulled eastward and into the system. This
along with steep low level lapse rates and modest forcing for
ascent will allow for scattered snow showers and perhaps snow
squalls for a good portion of the day. The leading edge of the
deeper ascent will arrive at the CT River valley around 12z this
morning give or take a couple hours. Therefore, we will start
chance PoPs in the west around that time and gradually spread
them eastward through the morning. They will be most numerous in
the mountains but stability indices such as the Froude number
will be quite high so we expect some snow showers to make it to
the coast as well as southern NH. Temperatures will be marginal
for snow on the coastal plain but steep lapse rates should
allow it to occur.

Slippery travel is likely in spots.

Winds across the region will increase during the day and gust
20 to 30 MPH, especially across southern NH and southernmost ME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Snow showers will wind down south and east of the mountains as
we lose daylight and as the shortwave crosses to the east this
evening. The mountains will stay mostly cloudy with widely
scattered snow showers continuing through tonight as flow and
moisture will remain conducive for upslope precipitation. It
will be a chilly night as temperatures drop into the 20s, but
with it remaining breezy, wind chills will be in the 10s,
possibly single digits across the north.

High pressure moves in Saturday making for a fair weather day.
Winds will be much lighter too. Temperatures will remain chilly
with 20s in the mountains and mainly 30s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will move out of the area Saturday night, as a
low approaches from the west. Precipitation moves in Sunday
morning, with snow likely in the mountains but mostly rain
elsewhere. A couple inches of snow is not out of the question
north of the mountains, but snow will struggle to accumulate in
the foothills and south. Precipitation should clear out of the
area for most by Sunday evening, with some lingering snow
showers expected to persist across the interior through Monday
morning.

High pressure returns on Monday with mostly dry conditions
likely, along with clearing skies. However, this period of
quieter weather will be brief.

Monday night, a low pressure system looks to develop over the
Ohio River Valley, and move eastward. Cyclogenesis looks
favorable as the low looks to position itself in the left exit
region of a weak upwind jet streak, as well as the right
entrance region of a much stronger jet streak downstream. This
should allow for increased upper-level divergence and lower
pressure falls within the low. Uncertainty still remains with
storm track, but models have come into stronger agreement that
winter weather is likely Tuesday, and this system has a solid
chance of becoming the first notable widespread winter storm for
the region. Despite the large spread on intensity, ECMWF and
GFS Ensemble snow probabilities show at least a widespread 40%
chance to see greater than 6 inches of snow across New Hampshire
and western Maine. Snow may be heavy at times and substantially
skewer visibility during the day Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday look drier and higher pressure works into
the area. A couple isolated snow showers can`t be ruled out
across the interior.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions are expected to prevail today
through Saturday. However, temporary lower conditions are
expected in snow showers today, with vsbys a 1/2 mile or less
for brief periods of time. These will end tonight with sunny
skies expected Saturday.

Today will be gusty with westerly gusts 20-30 kt, possibly up
to 35 kt, during the day, especially across southern NH. Much
lighter winds Saturday.

Long Term...VFR is expected Saturday night, restrictions will
likely lower through the day Sunday, with the heaviest
restrictions possible in the north due to snow. Restrictions
will stay down through Monday morning. VFR prevails through the
remainder of Monday, and into Tuesday morning. Restrictions
lower on Tuesday due to an possible winter storm.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Solid SCA conditions continue over the waters through
early this morning before the gradient tightens, resulting in
westerly gales over the outer waters and SCA conditions by noon.
Winds and seas should begin to come down overnight and toward
daybreak Saturday.

Long Term...Northwesterly winds look to diminish Saturday night,
becoming light and variable through Sunday afternoon. Seas lower
from 3-5ft to 2-3ft in this timeframe. SCA thresholds are likely
Sunday night through Monday morning, with some gales possible
during this time frame as well. Marine conditions improve on
Monday but SCA thresholds may return again by Tuesday night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150-
     152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for ANZ151.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Combs/Ekster
LONG TERM...Cornwell/Palmer