060
FXPQ50 PGUM 060713
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
513 PM ChST Sun Apr 6 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will dominate the weather
over the Marianas for the next week. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet
will slowly diminish further, reaching 3 to 5 feet and perhaps even 2
to 4 feet later this week.

&&

.Discussion...
A dry season trade-wind regime maintains its grip on the Marianas. A
trough went by this morning, but is quickly fading into the sunset.
Trade winds will be gentle to moderate through Monday, then mainly
gentle after that. After the forecast period, it seems likely in the
extended models that they could ramp back up to moderate for a couple
of days.

&&

.Marine...
Allowed the high risk of rip currents to expire, as both buoys and
altimetry have trended a little lower than last night. Wave models
indicate they will subside a little more over the next couple days.
The risk of rip currents is expected to remain moderate through
Tuesday night, then could reach low levels, where they would likely
remain for the rest of the week.

&&

.Fire weather...
Humidity did not get low enough today, and winds were marginal at
best. Weather conditions are expected to be less conducive to rapid
fire spread the next several days, with lowering winds and rising
humidities. Therefore the Fire Weather Watch has been canceled.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Much drier conditions are now seen across eastern Micronesia. Latest
satellite imagery shows only isolated showers north of 4N. This is
due to the trade-wind convergence pattern dissipating across the area
with only weak convergence evident south of 4N, producing a couple
of patches of scattered showers. Latest model guidance shows no
convergence across the region over the next several days. However,
there are a few weak trade-wind troughs expected to move through
during the week that will bring brief periods of low-end scattered
showers to Majuro and Kosrae around midweek. Otherwise, the dry trade
pattern will dominate through the coming weekend.

Latest altimetry and buoy data show seas between 5 and 7 feet for
Kosrae and Pohnpei with 6 to 8 feet for Majuro. Seas look to slowly
subside over the next few days, falling 1 to 2 feet across the
region, reaching 4 to 6 feet by midweek at Pohnpei and Kosrae, and by
the end of the week at Majuro. Moderate to fresh winds tonight look
to become gentle to moderate early in the week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Two distinct troughs are moving through the region. The first is
passing just south of Yap Proper, but has not reached Palau, so
while skies are mostly cloudy at Yap, they are partly cloudy across
Palau. As this trough drifts west, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, with some gusty winds along the leading edge of the
convection, will move into Palau this evening, while cloud cover at
Yap will decrease. The second is southwest of Chuuk Lagoon and near
the border of Chuuk and Yap State. Showers have been decreasing
around Chuuk Lagoon, with some in mid-to upper-level cloud cover
lingering from earlier showers. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen along the trough axis and across the western
islands of Chuuk State and eastern islands of Yap State. As this
trough continues westward, a drier weather pattern will move into
Chuuk State as satellite imagery does not show any notable features
across eastern Micronesia that would support a wet pattern. The
trough will pass near Yap Proper around Tuesday night, lifting
scattered showers over the island, with drier weather returning the
latter half of the week. Palau is expected to see a break from
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday night as the
first trough pushes off to the west and the second trough is still
moving through Yap State. Models also still support a NET developing
near the equator by mid week, which would support convergent flow and
an overall wet pattern from most of the week.

Latest buoy and altimetry data across the region show seas of 4 to 6
feet near Palau and Yap, and around 5 to 7 feet across Chuuk State.
Seas are not expected to change much this week and should even drop
a foot or two as the northeast swell weakens slightly. Scatterometer
data also suggest winds are gentle to moderate across most of the
region, with some fresh winds around ongoing convection, mainly east
of Palau. Sea conditions are expected to be fairly benign over the
next several days, with the main threat to mariners being limited
convective gusts and lightning near thunderstorms.


&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Stanko
East Micronesia: Kleeschulte
West Micronesia: Schank