Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
548 FXPQ50 PGUM 010744 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 544 PM ChST Mon Jul 1 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite imagery showing partly cloudy skies and isolated showers to the west of the Marianas, with an increase in showers approaching from the east. Latest altimetry passes and Ritidian buoy are indicating seas of 3 to 5 feet. && .Discussion... The disturbance that brought scattered showers across the southern Marianas today has pushed west. Another weaker disturbance will clip the region tonight into tomorrow, with more scattered showers possible for Rota and especially Guam. Showers should remain isolated for Tinian and Saipan. For the rest of the period, multiple disturbances will pass near to south of the Marianas. Expect upticks in clouds and showers, especially for Guam and Rota where moisture will be deeper and convergent flow will be more prevalent. Instability will trend up from south to north beginning Tuesday night, with isolated thunderstorms possible for Guam Tuesday night and Wednesday, then all of the Marianas Wednesday night through Friday. && .Marine/Surf... Gentle to moderate trade winds and combined seas of 3 to 5 feet will continue this week. Some gusty winds and choppy seas are possible near heavier showers and thunderstorms, mainly over Guam and Rota waters, as a couple of disturbances pass near to south of the Marianas. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along east facing reefs, with a low risk along all other reefs. Little change in surf and rip risk expected for the week. && .Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk... Isolated showers tonight for Majuro and Kosrae as the ITCZ remains weak and shifts north. Most of the convection north of Majuro is expected to stay north and move west. May see a few light showers for Majuro next day or two, but around the second half of the week, expect heavier showers as an ITCZ develops again over Majuro and moves into Kosrae. Made a few adjustments and increased the shower potential at Majuro for possible numerous showers and scattered for Kosrae mid week. On-and-off scattered showers for Pohnpei most of the week, as models indicate showers associated with the ITCZ developing later this week to diminish before it gets to Pohnpei. For Chuuk, increasing clouds and showers are in store for tonight through tomorrow night and expecting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, and possibly higher potential for numerous showers or locally heavy based off the latest GFS. Altimetry reported 4 to 6 feet near Pohnpei`s waters, expecting little change in wave heights. && .Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap... For Palau and Yap, isolated showers from tonight through Tuesday as a ridge extends across the area. Around Wednesday, shower potential is expected increase as convection develops east of Yap with a TUTT extending across the region. Altimetry reported 2 to 4 feet near Chuuk and Palau`s waters, and buoys at Babeldaob and Yap reported 2 to 3 feet. Expecting little change in wave heights. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Slagle Micronesia: Hong