303
FXPQ50 PGUM 150602
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
402 PM ChST Fri Nov 15 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies persist with a few showers crossing the region.
Seas are holding in the 4 to 6 foot range. The water temperature
is 85 degrees at the Ritidian buoy. For the outlook, look for drier
air to work into the region, limiting shower potential.

&&

.Discussion...
The biggest forecast dilemma was deciding between isolated and
scattered shower coverage tonight, as a surface trough is slowly
crossing the region. We opted to go with scattered shower coverage
given favorable nocturnal timing. Otherwise, look for cloud cover to
decrease over thee next 36 hours, with abundant dry air seen between
700 and 300 mb on the latest time height forecasts for the Marianas.
We`ll still see trade-wind showers, but they`ll be relatively brief
in nature as we head through the weekend into next week.

&&

.Marine...
Seas of 4 to 6 feet with gentle to moderate winds will prevail
through the forecast period. Scattered showers and a thunderstorm or
two should develop overnight as a surface trough is slowly crossing
the region, getting an added boost from nocturnal timing. Waves do
look to increase though by the middle of the week, as the
northeasterly swell increases.

&&

.Tropical systems...
Typhoon Man-yi continues to strengthen, with sustained winds now up
to 80 mph. It`s located at 10.7N 131.3E, well east of the central
Visayas in the Phillipines/well northwest of the Republic of Palau,
and moving west at 18 mph. It`s forecast to continue strengthening
while taking a gradual turn to the northwest.

For more information on Typhoon Man-yi, please refer to bulletins
issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN32
PGTW and by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ32
PGUM.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
An active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) remains the dominant
feature across eastern Micronesia this afternoon. The ITCZ is
beginning to weaken, however, several weak trade-wind troughs moving
over the boundary is helping to maintain scattered showers and the
risk of thunderstorms across Majuro, Kosrae and Pohnpei through
tonight. By Saturday morning, the ITCZ will only be active over the
Marshall Islands, maintaining scattered showers there through the
afternoon. Both Pohnpei and Kosrae should see a drier pattern
beginning Saturday, with Majuro drying out Saturday night. Beginning
Sunday night, a fairly robust trough is expected to move into the
region, bringing scattered showers back to Majuro and Kosrae Sunday
night and into Pohnpei Monday. As this trough moves through, it will
help strengthen convergence behind it that could result in the
development of another ITCZ across the region, maintaining higher
POPs (Probability of Precipitation) across the area through around
midweek next week, when a dry pattern returns to region.

A fairly benign marine pattern is expected to continue across eastern
Micronesia, with combined seas remaining at or below 6 feet through
the middle of next week. Winds are expected to be light to gentle
through next Wednesday.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Satellite observations show Typhoon Man-yi moving out of our region
with scattered showers on the southeast side near Palau. Isolated
showers are seen near Yap and Chuuk.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near Palau and
are associated with the tail end of Typhoon Man-yi`s feeder bands.
These showers may linger into tonight before Man-yi completely exits
the region. Elsewhere quiet conditions are seen this afternoon. For
Yap, showers are expected to remain isolated tonight, but scattered
showers will be possible Saturday and Saturday night as a weak
trough moves through. For Chuuk, models have been decaying the
scattered showers that are currently just west of Pohnpei. These
showers are associated with a combination of troughs and the ITCZ.
Satellite shows outflow boundaries racing out ahead of the convection
with showers and thunderstorms persisting near the outflow. Low end
(30%) scattered showers were introduced into the forecast for late
tonight and early tomorrow morning to cover some of these showers
making it into Chuuk. Beyond this weekend, a quieter stretch looks to
setup across western Micronesia with isolated showers at Chuuk and
Yap and low end scattered showers at Palau through the middle of the
week.

Combined seas are generally between 3 to 5 feet across western
Micronesia. Seas are expected to increase to 4 to 6 feet on Sunday as
a northeast swell moves into the region. Marine conditions are
expected to remain benign with gentle to moderate winds through
midweek next week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Doll
Eastern Micronesia: Kleeschulte
Western Micronesia: Williams