721
FXPQ50 PGUM 040653
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
453 PM ChST Mon Aug 4 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
Latest satellite imagery shows shows mostly cloudy skies with
scattered showers over the CNMI, with partly cloudy skies and
isolated showers over Guam. Mostly cloudy skies with scattered
showers are seen to the east of Guam waters. Buoys show seas between
2 and 3 feet while altimetry shows seas of 2 to 4 feet west and 3 to
5 feet east of the waters.

&&

.Discussion...
A trade-wind trough to the east of the Marianas is bringing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the CNMI this
afternoon with isolated thunderstorms over Guam. Scattered showers
remain just east of the Guam coastal waters and are expected to move
into Guam later this evening. Over the next couple of days, weak
convergence combined with minor trade-wind troughs and upper-level
divergence will maintain low-end scattered showers across the region.
By Thursday night, a dry pattern looks to move into the Marianas and
continue through the weekend.

&&

.Marine...
Benign marine conditions will continue for the next several days,
with light to gentle winds expected. Combined seas of 3 to 4 feet
will continue into the weekend.

&&

.Tropical Systems...
A weak circulation, Invest 96W ,is centered well west of the Marianas
near 14N136E, moving slowly west. Convection is increasing near the
center, with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms evident on
the latest visible satellite imagery. Model guidance shows little
development with 96W over the next few days as it moves toward the
Philippines. 96W looks to move west of 130E by Wednesday morning.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Satellite observations show partly cloudy skies and isolated showers
across eastern Micronesia.

The relatively quiet conditions continue across eastern Micronesia
with a few isolated showers seen across Pohnpei and Kosrae. The
forecast remains quiet through the work week with isolated to low-
end (30%) scattered showers expected the next several days. These
showers will generally be from weak trade-wind troughs or trade-wind
convergence. Later this weekend, both the GFS and ECMWF start to
hint towards the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) returning to
the region with an increase in shower activity across Majuro
possible on Saturday.

Marine conditions remain benign with combined seas generally between
3 and 5 feet. Majuro could see a slight bump in seas by a foot this
week due to a slight increase in trade swell. Otherwise, combined
seas look to remain between 3 and 5 feet for Pohnpei and Kosrae
through the week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Two main features are influencing weather across the region: a
circulation north of Palau and Yap near 14N136E, referred to as
JTWC`s Invest 96W, and a broad trough moving across western Chuuk
State and into eastern Yap State. The bulk of convection is northwest
of Palau and Yap, but scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are still expected to fill in tonight due to weak convergence in the
wake of 96W. Model guidance indicates a brief lull in showers
Tuesday before the trough farther east approaches the islands Tuesday
night and Wednesday. A weak ridge will try to build in behind the
trough on Thursday and Friday, decreasing showers once again to
isolated to low-end scattered. For Chuuk, off-and-on showers are
expected with a stray thunderstorm possible over the next several
days due to a weak, convergent trade-wind pattern and minor surface
troughs traversing the region.

Overall, benign marine conditions continue. Buoy and altimetry data
show calm seas of 1 to 3 feet near Palau and Yap and up to around 4
feet near Chuuk. Winds remain light to gentle near Yap and Palau.
Meanwhile, scatterometry shows gentle to moderate east-southeast
trades farther east near Chuuk, but winds are expected to subside
back down to light to gentle in the latter half of the week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Kleeschulte
East Micronesia: Williams
West Micronesia: Cruz