743
FXPQ50 PGUM 090728
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
528 PM ChST Wed Apr 9 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite and radar show partly cloudy skies and almost no showers
within the Marianas waters. Wave models reveal combined seas of 3 to
5 feet, composed mainly of moderate east swell, wind waves, and the
remnants of a decaying north-northeast swell.

&&

.Discussion...
A dry season trade-wind regime maintains its iron grip on the
Marianas, with no end currently in sight. East winds and sparse,
light showers will remain the rule for the next week at least, maybe
even the week after that.

Today was looking the best for island convection, but all we got was
a fizzling little cloud line. We need more moisture and less winds to
get there, and that`s not looking likely for the next several days at
least.

&&

.Marine...
Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 3 to 5 feet
becoming 4 to 6 feet will fill the next week. Seas could breach 5 to
7 feet during the second week, but will then meekly subside back to
between 4 and 6 feet. The chance of a Small Craft Advisory over the
next 2 weeks is... wait for it... an awe inspiring 3 percent.

However, we did have to issue a Beach Hazard Statement after getting
reports of Indo-Pacific Man-o-war, the Pacific version of their more
famous Portuguese cousins, so be cautious along the beaches, watching
for these jellyfish like creatures. Even dead ones can still sting.

&&

.Fire Weather...
The KBDI is now 671. With no wetting rains in sight in the model
data, it is likely to continue climbing. As long as the winds are
just gentle to moderate, this isn`t that bad. However, the extended
models show an uptick in the winds around the 17th. That`s something
we`ll have to monitor and see if it disappears or starts to look more
solid. It could be the first hints of our next red flag warning.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Overall, relatively quiet conditions persists across the region this
afternoon. Satellite imagery and ASCAT analysis shows a few areas of
showers, south of the main forecast locations, with one cluster of
showers southeast of Kosrae producing a gust front reaching near 30
kt. Upper-level winds are helping shear some high-level clouds over
Majuro, although, showers are isolated at the surface. This dry
weather pattern is expected through early next week for Pohnpei,
Kosrae, and Majuro, as no significant weather features are expected
to develop.

Buoy and altimetry data shows seas between 5 and 7 feet, and up to 8
feet east of Majuro over the next several days. Winds are mainly
gentle to moderate, with a period of moderate to fresh winds near
Pohnpei Thursday through Friday.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A surface trough with a couple of embedded circulations has pushed
west of Yap Proper and is working to the west of the main islands of
Palau today. One of the circulations passed just south of Palau
today and brought heavy rains and gusty winds, with more possible
tonight. Low-end scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
still be possible tonight for Yap, followed by a drier trade-wind
pattern with mainly isolated showers beginning tomorrow through the
weekend and into next week. The trough will develop into a near-
equatorial trough (NET) southwest of Palau and looks to keep showers
scattered through Friday night, with a potential for isolated
thunderstorms through Thursday night. The NET will then shift further
southwest of Palau by the weekend, with mainly isolated showers
expected into early next week. For Chuuk, mainly isolated trade
showers expected for the period.

Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected across western
Micronesia. Combined seas will drop to 3 to 5 feet tonight for Yap
and Palau as the trade swell and wind waves continue to diminish. For
Chuuk, seas 4 to 6 feet will generally prevail but could climb to 7
feet at times Friday into Saturday as the trade swell increases.
Winds could become fresh at times for Chuuk Thursday night into
Friday.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for GUZ001.

MP...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for MPZ001>003.

Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Marianas: Stanko
East Micronesia: Cruz
West Micronesia: Slagle