Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
711
FNUS72 KGSP 131007
FWSGSP
Spot Forecast for Lickstone Ridge and Dobson Ridge RX...BIA
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
507 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on November 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Dry high pressure today will bring somewhat cooler temperatures
compared to Tuesday. Rain chances remain near zero through sunset.
Strong southerly winds will develop at high elevations this evening,
increasing through early morning. These winds will also bring
abundant moisture to the area and widespread wetting rain will
develop after midnight, if not late this evening. Transport winds
should easily exceed 40 mph at the elevation of the burn site,
perhaps peaking above 50 mph in the 5 to 9 AM timeframe. Ceilings
will drop to a few hundred feet or less. Rainfall most likely will
end Thursday afternoon, with winds veering to westerly that
afternoon. Brisk northwesterly gusts are likely to develop Thursday
night.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Initially sunny, increasing clouds late.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......Up to 1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3900 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 to 16.
Stability class.....3.
Pcpn amount.........None.
Ceiling (FT)........Unlimited early, above 18000 ft late.
Visibility (SM).....Unlimited.
Sfc pressure (in)...26.61.
TIME (EST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3 3 4 7 23 31 63 71
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............41 46 48 51 52 52 51 50
Dewpoint........32 32 31 31 31 30 29 28
RH..............68 58 51 47 45 43 42 42
20 FT wind dir..S SW SW S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..12 10 9 9 9 9 9 12
20 FT wind gust.21 20 17 15 16 16 16 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10
LVORI...........3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
ADI.............7 8 10 14 15 16 11 8
VRate kt-ft/10006 6 7 10 10 11 8 4
Ceiling (hft)...250 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
Visibility (sm).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Sfc pres (in)...673 671 669 667 665 663 661 662
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain in the
evening, then rain overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 15 to 22 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 22 mph increasing to 41 to 47 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17300 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3300 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................11 to 42.
Stability class.....4.
Pcpn amount.........0.45 inches.
Ceiling (FT)........Falling below 1000 ft after rain develops.
Visibility (SM).....As low as 3 miles after rain develops.
Sfc pressure (in)...26.47.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........80 86 94 94 95 95 96 97 96 98 97 100
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF
Weather type.... RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............47 46 45 44 43 43 43 42 42 42 42 43
Dewpoint........26 25 25 24 23 24 28 32 34 37 38 39
RH..............44 43 46 45 44 48 56 65 74 80 87 85
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..15 17 20 20 21 21 22 21 21 21 21 21
20 FT wind gust.21 24 26 28 28 26 28 28 29 29 28 28
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.S SE S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.13 14 20 22 30 33 37 41 43 44 46 47
LVORI...........2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 3 4 4
ADI.............11 12 18 20 27 30 33 37 38 39 41 42
VRate kt-ft/10003 3 5 6 9 17 14 16 13 13 13 13
Ceiling (hft)...240 240 110 110 100 100 80 40 30 21 13 11
Visibility (sm).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 7
Sfc pres (in)...663 664 663 663 662 660 659 657 654 651 649 647
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog early in the
morning. Rain in the morning, with chances
diminishing during the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 44.
Min humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 20 mph shifting to the
southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon, then
shifting to the west around 6 mph late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 39 to 48 mph becoming southwest 10 to 12
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (31000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................11 early in the morning increasing to 53 in the
afternoon.
Stability class.....4.
Pcpn amount.........0.84 inches.
Ceiling (FT)........As low as 300 ft in the morning, rising above
2000 ft in the afternoon.
Visibility (SM).....3 to 5 during rain, becoming unlimited afterward.
Sfc pressure (in)...26.36.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 97 94 91 90 90 89 85 80 75 75
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 43
Dewpoint........40 41 41 41 41 42 43 43 43 43 43 43
RH..............87 90 90 91 92 97 98 99 98 97 97 97
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S SW SW SW W
20 FT wind spd..20 20 17 15 13 12 10 8 6 5 5 6
20 FT wind gust.29 29 26 25 23 21 18 17 12 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S SW SW S SW SW W
Transp wind spd.48 48 45 44 39 40 41 41 25 10 10 10
LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6
ADI.............53 53 49 49 44 44 45 45 13 11 11 12
VRate kt-ft/100013 15 26 31 27 28 27 22 12 5 5 6
Ceiling (hft)...8.0 6.0 10 10 3.0 17 24 30 30 30 24 24
Visibility (sm).5 4
Sfc pres (in)...646 645 644 644 644 642 640 639 638 637 636 637
$$
Forecaster...Jake Wimberley
Requested by...David Collins
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426400.0/GSP
.DELDT 11/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0