362
FXUS62 KGSP 161824
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
224 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure lingers over the area through the weekend and
temperatures warm a little each day.  A cold front will approach
from the west early next week, and could bring some showers and
a thunderstorm or two to the area on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 159 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Clear and sunny conditions prevail through Thursday.

2) Low humidity today will foster fire weather concerns for much
of the area.

3) Still dry Thursday, but with less potential for fire danger.

It`s a beautiful day across the area as high pressure centered over
the eastern Mississippi Valley continues to filter into the area.
Skies are clear basically everywhere, and the main concern for the
afternoon hours is fire weather...with a deep dry slot evident
in soundings above 800mb, and some evidence from surface obs
of dewpoints crashing to below the 10th percentile of guidance.
Critical or at least near-critical RH can thus be expected across
much of the Upstate and Piedmont over the next few hours...to abate
toward sunset as daytime mixing dies down.  Winds won`t be gusty
enough to justify a Fire Danger Statement in NC or SC, but for
northeast Georgia, a Fire Danger Statement remains in place through
8PM.  Highs this afternoon will top out in the upper 60s across I-
40, and in the upper 70s across the lower Piedmont and Upstate.

Expect a gradual increase in cloud cover overnight as a lobe of
upper level moisture drifts across the area...resulting in more
cirrus coverage than the last two nights...but otherwise little
impact.  Lows will still fall into the mid- to low-40s across the
low terrain, and winds will gradually veer around to the northeast
before daybreak.

Another sunny day is expected tomorrow, with winds out of
the southeast and temps around a category warmer than today`s.
A steady increase in low-level moisture owing to strengthening SE
flow off the Atlantic will result in dewpoints not quite as low
as today`s, so fire weather should be somewhat less of an issue.
Cloud cover will begin to increase late in the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2:15 PM EDT Wednesday: Broad southerly return flow will become
established over the area as high pressure moves off the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coast late in the week. After the 850 mb
ridge axis passes through, a warm front will quickly lift northward
through the area Thursday night. Weak isentropic lift across the
boundary and additional forcing from a mid-level shortwave trough
could be accompanied by an increase in cloud cover at night, but the
system is generally moisture starved, so the forecast remains dry
with PoPs below 20 percent.

The warm front will move well to our north on Friday, resulting in a
significant warming trend with temperatures about 10 degrees above
normal (highs in the 70s in the mountains, lower 80s elsewhere)
Friday and 10-15 degrees above normal Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2:15 PM EDT Wednesday: Surface high pressure will remain
anchored to our north over the Northeast US and to our east the
Southeast U.S. coast through early next week. Meanwhile, a southern-
stream shortwave trough and attendent surface low is expected to
lift northeastward from the Great Plains to the Great Lakes. A
trailing cold front will approach from the MS Valley. Tend to favor
a slower solution with arrival of the front as amplified S-SW flow
across the eastern seaboard becomes oriented more parallel to the
boundary, causing its eastward progression to slow. The most likely
timing of the front is Monday afternoon or night, but it could be as
early as Monday morning. If the downstream ridge block does not
break down as quickly as the model consensus currently depicts it,
there is a potential for this front to stall just to our east near
the coast. This would prolong the chances for rain showers into
Tuesday. The NBM shows an increasingly large spread in temperatures
Monday night and Tuesday owing to the uncertainty in the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR TAF period as high pressure settles
into the area.  Some gustiness continues across the terminals
as weakening NW post-frontal flow remains in place.  Winds will
steadily drop off this evening, and remain quiet overnight.
A few high clouds will spill across the area overnight as winds
shift more NE.  They`ll turn S of E between 15-16z tomorrow, but
will remain much weaker tomorrow than today, with no gusts expected.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions will continue into the weekend.
The next chance of rain and associated restrictions won`t be until
early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO/MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...MPR