040
FXUS62 KGSP 020134
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
934 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures and rain chances are in store for parts of the
area Wednesday, with the rain chances tapering off late Thursday.
Dry and exceptionally warm weather end the week. A cold front brings
shower and thunderstorm chances on Sunday, with drier and cooler
conditions early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT Tuesday: The forecast remains on track this evening
so no major adjustments were needed. Clear skies continue across
most of the area but some cirrus are pushing into the western NC
mountains per the latest nighttime microphysics satellite loops. Dry
conditions remain in place as well but light rain will return for
some locations during overnight into early Wednesday morning.

A slug of low-level WAA will develop late tonight into the overnight
hours, resulting in a rapid increase in cloud cover after midnight,
as moisture swept off the Atlantic builds into the region. Hi-res
models depict onset of rainfall in the hours leading up to
dawn...starting from the south where upglide flow will initially be
focused along the southern periphery of the developing wedge. Temps
will fall to near normal for the NC zones, but may wind up a
category or so above normal for the SC zones, as the CAD wedge
develops and cloud cover arrives early enough to offset radiative
cooling.

On Wednesday, this temperature disparity will only be enhanced as
widespread light rain continues across much of the area. Best PoP is
still advertised across the Blue Ridge Escarpment, and it`s these
zones that will see the most impressive QPF - on the order of a
quarter to a half inch through the end of Wednesday. Other zones
will see much less - potentially only a couple hundredths of an inch
of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tue: Moist upslope/upglide southerly flow continues
Wednesday evening with widespread showers ongoing. Showers taper off
overnight as the flow weakens. The flow turns more southwesterly
Thursday, but scattered showers redevelop across the area. The flow
weakens again Thursday night with showers diminishing. A cold front
drops toward the area but stalls over VA Friday. The southwesterly
flow remains weak, but there may be enough moisture and lift for
isolated showers over the mountains.

The CAD erodes Thursday with the weaker flow and less precip. Lows
Wednesday night will be around 20 degrees above normal with highs
Thursday around 15 degrees above normal. The warm air mass remains
in place through Friday, with lows Thursday night still around 20
degrees above normal. Highs Friday around 20 degrees above normal,
with 90s possibly outside of the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tue: The stalled front lifts north of the area Saturday
with southwesterly flow remaining. A dry day is expected with lows
and highs around 20 degrees above normal, keeping 90 degrees in play
outside of the mountains. A cold front moves into the area Sunday
with deep moisture and good forcing. There will be some instability
and possibly strong shear, but too early to tell if there`s a
significant severe thunderstorm risk. The risk of excessive rainfall
looks to be low. Lows remain nearly steady with highs 10 to 15
degrees above normal. A few showers may linger behind the front
Monday morning but should dissipate by afternoon with dry high
pressure for Tuesday. A much cooler air mass moves in behind the
front. Lows 10 to 15 degrees below normal Sunday night drop to 5 to
10 degrees below normal Monday night. Highs around normal Monday
drop to around 5 degrees below normal for Tuesday. If these trends
continue, then Frost/Freeze may become a concern next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through late tonight before -SHRA
and restrictions return early Wednesday morning. Cloud cover will
gradually increase late this evening into tonight, becoming BKN to
OVC BY 07Z to 09Z. Cigs will gradually lower and -SHRA will return
by ~10Z to 13Z. IFR cigs are expected to develop early Wednesday
morning, lingering through the end of the 00Z TAF period for most
terminals. Pockets of LIFR cigs cannot be entirely ruled out but
confidence is too low to mention this update. KAND has the best
potential to see cigs improve to MVFR levels by late Wednesday
afternoon. MVFR vsbys should develop as well early Wednesday morning
into Wednesday evening. Went with PROB30s for -SHRA from Wednesday
morning to early afternoon everywhere except KCLT as confidence
remains low on whether -SHRA will occur directly over the terminal.
Have prevailing -SHRA at KGSP, KGMU, KAVL, and KHKY Wednesday
afternoon and evening as these locations have the best potential see
rain chances stick around. Went with VCSH at KCLT during the
afternoon/early evening hours before dry conditions return towards
the end of the period. Have VCSH at KAND Wednesday afternoon with
dry conditions returning by the late afternoon hours. KAVL will
generally see S/SE`ly winds while KCLT will likely see E/SE`ly winds
through the 00Z TAF period. Winds elsewhere will be E/ESE`ly this
evening before gradually turning NE late this evening into tonight.
Winds will remain NE`ly at KHKY, KGSP, and KGMU through Wednesday.
Winds at KAND will turn back E`ly on Wednesday. Low-end wind gusts
may develop Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook: Scattered showers as well as cig restrictions may linger
into Thursday. Vsby restrictions will linger through daybreak
Thursday. IFR to MVFR cigs may return again late Thursday night into
Friday morning. Drier conditions return Thursday night into Saturday
night before another cold front brings shower and thunderstorm
chances, and associated restrictions, back on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-03

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1963     31 1936     64 1946     23 1936
   KCLT      90 1946     42 1915     62 1986     26 2021
                                        1946
   KGSP      87 1967     44 1901     62 2014     27 2021
                1963                                1993
                1946                                1902



RECORDS FOR 04-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      83 1999     33 1891     61 1893     22 1936
                1978
   KCLT      87 1999     43 1911     63 1986     29 1936
                            1899        1945
                                        1934
   KGSP      88 1963     44 1936     62 1999     25 1975
                1934



RECORDS FOR 04-05

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      86 1909     30 1891     60 2023     20 1944
                                        1910
   KCLT      88 1942     38 1891     62 1910     26 1891
   KGSP      90 1934     43 1899     60 2023     25 1904
                                        1888



RECORDS FOR 04-06

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1967     36 1950     64 2023     22 1898
   KCLT      90 2010     43 1931     67 2023     28 1891
                1929
   KGSP      88 2010     47 1950     65 2023     26 1904
                            1945

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...AR/MPR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...AR
CLIMATE...GSP