Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
764 FXUS62 KGSP 112343 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 743 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Active summertime weather will continue thru the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. High temperatures will increase each day through Monday, trending back to around normal for the middle of next week behind a weak cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Friday: Convection still working its way across southern zones, and given the "sunset surprise" the last two nights, still cannot rule out additional development through the evening especially in the NW Piedmont where environment hasn`t been worked over yet. CAPEs (SB and downdraft) remain highest in this area as well out towards the I77 corridor although CAMs not particularly excited about the idea, so will monitor through the evening. Fair weather is on tap for later tonight as a weak westerly flow and drier blyr is progged, limiting shallow fog potential to the mtn valleys and locales who receive rainfall today. Upper ridge axis will continue to poke north into the region through Saturday. Expect another afternoon of typical scattered, diurnally fired, deep convective chances regionwide. Coincident with rising mid/upper level heights, afternoon maximums are progged to reach a category above persistence. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1200 PM Friday: Mid level heights will rise slightly during the Saturday night through Monday timeframe. This will lead to high temperatures climbing back into the middle 90s Sunday and Monday outside the mountains, with highs near 90 in the mountain valleys. Heat indices will also be climbing with some Piedmont locations getting into the lower 100s each day. Right now, we do not anticipate that a heat advisory will be needed in our area. An active convective pattern will continue during this period with mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day, with the highest chance in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1210 PM Fri: A weakening cold front will push into the area on Tuesday. This will act to lower high temperatures just a couple degrees for the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe, but they will still be near normal to slightly above normal. The dissipating front will help to keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms above climo each day. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Still monitoring convection across the area at TAF time, and potential for activity remains for KCLT which hasn`t yet been worked over, so kept the early PROB30 for KCLT. Otherwise VFR this evening. Expect pre-dawn MVFR fog to develop for KAVL and KHKY, possibly lower at KAVL and other typical mountain valley areas. Improving trends after sunrise, with SCT VFR Cu developing by midday. PROB30 at all sites for Saturday afternoon. Outlook: Typical summertime weather is expected into early next week, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon/evening and fog and/or low stratus possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SCW NEAR TERM...CSH/TDP SHORT TERM...SCW LONG TERM...SCW AVIATION...TDP