859
FXUS62 KGSP 060246
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1046 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions will continue through the rest of the
weekend under the influence of high pressure over the Northeast
states. A stronger but generally dry cold front is expected to
track across the region on Monday, bringing below-normal high
temperatures Tuesday through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 10:15 PM EDT Saturday: Other than some lingering altocu
over far western NC and NE Georgia and some sct high clouds over
our southern-most zones, we remain mostly clear across the CWA.
Thus, it`s looking like another favorable overnight/morning for
low stratus and dense fog formation in the mtn valleys. Whether
or not fog/low stratus will develop elsewhere remains less cer-
tain as dewpts are expected to remain a few degrees lower than
the past few mornings. Regardless, low temps will remain roughly
4 to 8 degrees above normal for early October.

Otherwise, the near-term period should remain quiet as mid/upper
ridging moves past to our north as more dominate upper ridging
persists to our west. At the sfc, broad high pressure centered
well to our north will migrate from the eastern Great Lakes to
the New England Coast by the end of the period. The high should
prevent any of the deeper moisture to our south from spreading
into our area on Sunday. By the end of the period late Sunday/
early Monday another weak cold front will approach the NC mtns
from the NW, but this front looks pretty dry with only a slight
chance PoP carried along the NC/TN border during the last few
hrs of the period. Temperatures will remain above normal with
highs just above 80 degrees across most of the lower terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sat: Broad upper troughing across the eastern CONUS
will deepen thru Tuesday, then begin to shift east. This trough
will help take Tropical Cyclone Milton eastward across the Gulf
and keep any deep moisture to our south. A largely dry cold front
will push thru the area Monday, ushering in cooler temps to the
forecast area. Cannot rule out a few showers near the front as it
crosses the mountains, but guidance is in pretty good agreement on
little to no QPF. While 850 mb CAA ramps up during the day Monday,
winds should only be marginally breezy, especially in the high
terrain, but gusts should stay mostly below 20 mph. Otherwise,
mostly clear skies are expected with highs still above normal
Monday, then lows near normal Monday night. Highs Tuesday will be
a category or two below normal, mainly in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sat: Tropical Cyclone Milton, which may be a
hurricane, will cross the eastern Gulf and is forecast to make
landfall somewhere along the west coast of FL Tuesday night or
Wednesday. With the center of sfc high pressure over the Central
Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast, confidence is pretty high
the storm will stay well south of the forecast area. The pressure
gradient between the high and TC could result in breezy NE winds
Wednesday, with gusts possibly getting above 20 mph across the
I-85 corridor and south. The NE flow will continue to advect come
cooler air, reinforcing below-normal temps and keeping dry weather
across the area. Milton is expected to exit east of FL well south
of the Carolina coast Thursday thru Friday, while the center of dry
high pressure settles right over the region. A few marginal gusts
may resume across the Upstate Thursday late morning, but winds
should become light Thursday aftn and continue thru the period,
while skies remain mostly clear. Temps will be a couple categories
below normal. And while dewpts will fall into the 30s to mid 40s in
the mountains, mountain valley fog will be possible each morning,
given the good radiational cooling conditions. Lows may approach
the upper 30s in the high terrain, but no significant frost/freeze
concerns expected.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue
thru the 00z taf period. The only exception will likely be at
KAVL, where there`s a good chance of another round of fog/low
stratus overnight and well into the morning. Thus, I have a
TEMPO for LIFR visby/cigs from 10 to 13z. At KHKY, I kept any
restrictions to MVFR for the time being, as I`m less confident
they will see restrictions. Like the past few mornings, I expect
any restrictions to dissipate/sct by late morning. After that,
expect few to sct VFR clouds for the rest of the period. Winds
will remain light thru the overnight and tomorrow morning and
generally favor an ELY to NELY direction, with some sites re-
maining calm thru the morning. Winds will eventually veer around
to a S to SW direction by the late afternoon. At KAVL, winds
will remain light and VRB to calm thru most of the period.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions are expected thru early next week.
Fog/low stratus will be possible overnight and each morning, mainly
in the mtn valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JPT