513
FXUS62 KGSP 280140
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
940 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure slowly slides eastward through Saturday, keeping
mostly dry weather and fire danger in place. Shower and thunderstorm
chances return Sunday into Monday as a cold front approaches out of
the west. Dry high pressure returns Tuesday and possibly lingers
into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 937 pm EDT Thursday: The forecast remains on track this
evening with surface high pressure in control across the region.
High clouds will stream across the area overnight, but shouldn`t
impeded what should be another night of efficient radiational
cooling. Temperatures won`t be quite as chilly as this morning, but
are forecast to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s.

SSW flow is expected to continue gradually increasing tomorrow, with
trajectories becoming a little more Gulf-originating. The gradual
moistening should therefore continue. However, tomorrow is also
forecast to be considerably warmer (temps more than 10 degrees above
climo), which combined with sufficient mixing of drier air from
aloft should result in RH in the 20-25% range Fri afternoon. With
the gust potential increasing to the upper teens/lower 20s, another
Fire Danger Statement is likely to be needed for all or a part of
the area for tomorrow, but this will be coordinated with land
managers and neighboring WFOs for issuance after the current product
expires.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages

1) Dry with Less Critical Relative Humidity on Saturday but Breezy
Southerly Winds Return in the Afternoon

2) Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Returning Saturday Night into
Monday Limiting Fire Weather Concerns

3) Strong to Severe Storms are Possible Monday Afternoon and Early
Evening

The western periphery of a sfc ridge centered over the western
Atlantic will continue to extend across the Carolinas through
Saturday keeping dry conditions around. Cloud cover gradually
increases Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of an approaching
sfc low pressure system and lingers through the rest of the short
term. With mostly cloudy skies in place on Saturday, RH values will
be able to recover slightly due to less insolation. Minimum RH
should only fall to 35-40% across the mountain valleys and east of
the mountains. Higher RHs are expected across the higher elevations
Saturday afternoon, ranging from 40-50%. Although RHs will be less
critical, breezy southerly winds will develop once again during the
afternoon and early evening hours, ranging from 20-25 mph. So,
although fire wx concerns will begin a downward trend on Saturday,
the lack of rain may still lead to some localized issues, especially
where there are ongoing wildfires. Lows Friday night should end up
~15 degrees above normal thanks to increasing cloud cover. Highs
Friday afternoon should end up ~10 degrees above normal.

The pattern becomes more active Saturday night into Sunday as a sfc
low pressure system approaches out of the west. Rain chances will
steadily increase from west to east Saturday evening into Sunday,
lingering into Sunday night. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should develop Sunday afternoon and early evening as global model
guidance show a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE developing during peak
heating. With deep layer shear expected to remain below 30 kts, the
severe wx threat looks low on Sunday. Lows Saturday night will end
up ~15-20 degrees above normal thanks to rain and cloud cover. Highs
on Sunday will end up ~5-10 degrees above normal despite the rain
and cloud cover. Lows Sunday night will remain ~15-20 degrees above
normal thanks to cloud cover and rain.

The cold front associated with the cold front will track across the
forecast area on Monday and will bringing better rain chances as
well as the potential for strong to severe storms during the
afternoon and early evening hours. SPC continues to advertise a
slight risk for all of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia
on day 5 (Monday). This looks to be well placed with 40-50 kts of
deep layer shear and up to 500 J/kg across the mountains and 1000
J/kg of SBCAPE east of the mountains ahead of the front. How much we
destabilize will be highly dependent on the timing of the front so
the confidence on the severe threat remains low at this time.
Confidence will increase more as we head into the weekend and as
high-res model guidance becomes available. Highs on Monday will
remain ~5-10 degrees above normal despite cloud cover/convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages

1) Drier Conditions Gradually Return Monday night into Tuesday

2) Rain Chances May Return Wednesday into Thursday but Confidence is
Low

3) Temperatures Remain Above Normal through the Period

Showers and Thunderstorms may still be ongoing early Monday evening
before gradually pushing east late Monday evening into Monday night
as the southern periphery of a dry sfc ridge builds in behind the
departing front. Dry high pressure will continue across the area on
Tuesday, allowing for the return of lower RH. Right now, min RHs
Tuesday afternoon look to generally remain above 30%. With wet
antecedent conditions expected behind the front, fire danger be low.
Rain chances may return Wednesday into Thursday but confidence is
very low as the latest global models are not in agreement regrading
the sfc and upper level patterns. Thus, capped PoPs to chance for
now. Temperatures will remain above normal through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
terminals through the TAF period. Wildfire smoke has shifted south
of KAVL, but could drift back north at any point during the TAF
period. Forecast confidence in any visibility restrictions from
smoke is too low to warrant mention in the TAF at this point, but
will closely watch satellite trends should smoke shift back north.
Otherwise, scattered to broken high clouds will stream across the
area with southwest winds. A few lower end gusts will be possible
Friday afternoon.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions with lighter winds are expected
through Saturday. A frontal system will bring increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms, along with occasional restrictions on
Sunday and especially Monday. Drying is expected for Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday will be considerably warmer...by almost 10 degrees...with
similar min RH expected (as dewpoints will be gradually increasing).
Meanwhile, some gusts in the 20-25 mph range are expected by late
afternoon. An impact-based Red Flag Warning has been issued for
portions of the mountains of western North Carolina, Upstate of
South Carolina and Rabun County in northeast Georgia. A Fire Danger
Statement has also been issued for all other North Carolina counties
and additional statements may be needed for the Upstate and
northeast Georgia, pending coordination with land managers and
neighboring NWS offices.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ010.
NC...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ048>053-
     058-059-062>065-303-505>510.
     Increased Fire Danger from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NCZ033-035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>504.
SC...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ101>106-
     108.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDL/TW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...GSP