Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
697 FXUS62 KGSP 241747 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 147 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the area today, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances ahead of it through early this evening. The front will track across the forecast area this evening into tonight before pushing east early Monday morning. This will allow dry conditions to finally return behind the front for most of the week. Cooler and less humid conditions will develop Tuesday, lingering through the weekend, making it feel more like early fall than late summer. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Increase Ahead of a Cold Front through this Evening 2) Dry Conditions Return this Evening into Tomorrow 3) Near Normal to Just Below Normal Highs Expected Each Afternoon A cold front will approach out of the west today allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front through early this evening. Already seeing some showers pushing east across the NC mountains this afternoon with the thickest cloud cover confined to the mountains and NC Foothills. Both cloud cover and convection will continue tracking south and east, pushing east of the mountains later this afternoon into early this evening. With 20-25 kts of deep layer shear available ahead of the front, this will help keep convection moving. So, no hydro issues are expected. However, the elevated shear could allow for some stronger storms (perhaps even a severe storm or two) to develop during peak heating but confidence is low with DCAPE expected to remain below 1,000 J/kg and with SBCAPE/MUCAPE only ranging from 1,500-2,000 J/kg per the 12Z CAMs. Highs this afternoon will be warmer compared to yesterday, especially east of the mountains. Afternoon temps will climb into the mid to upper 90s east of the mountains. Drier conditions will develop from west to east late this afternoon into early this evening. The cold front will push across the forecast area this evening into tonight, pushing east by early Monday morning. Lows tonight will still end up near normal to just above normal. Dry sfc high pressure will build in from the west behind the departing front on Monday keeping dry weather around. Highs across the mountains tomorrow will end up a few degrees cooler compared to today but NW downslope flow will offset CAA somewhat east of the mountains keeping highs similar to today`s. Dewpoints will gradually fall throughout Monday with drier air filtering in behind the front. Should see dewpoints ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s across the mountains and the upper 50s to mid 60s east of the mountains by tomorrow afternoon. So today will likely be our last day of convection and humid conditions before drier and early fall-like weather returns during the short and long term. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1221 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Breezy conditions expected Tuesday as high pressure digs into the area. 2) Pleasant weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with cooler- and drier-than-normal conditions both days. 3) Essentially no chance of afternoon showers/storms currently expected either day. Postfrontal dry air will be entrenched in the western Carolinas by Monday night, with excellent ensemble consistency on NW flow across the region, and the actual frontal boundary located somewhere near the Atlantic coast. A fairly tight pressure gradient for this time of year (2-3mb per some of the operational guidance) will be in place across the Appalachians...resulting in seasonally strong (again, everything`s relative) CAA persisting through Tuesday evening. As such, breezy NW winds can be expected, especially at the higher elevations, through the first part of Tuesday night. Generally WSW flow aloft will become increasingly SW on Tuesday night as a robust shortwave approaches the area from the Ohio Valley, on the periperhy of much deeper cyclonic circulation churning over Quebec and Ontario. So, generally expect dry and mostly clear conditions on Tuesday, with pleasant dewpoints in the 50s and high temperatures in the upper 70s or lower 80s. The shortwave should drift across the Carolinas early Wednesday with little fanfare, as profiles will generally be too dry to support inclusion of any PoP in the latest forecast. The shortwave will drive a weak reinforcing cold front across the area, allowing winds to turn out of the N and ushering in more dry air for the daytime hours on Wednesday. Highs will only climb into the upper 70s across the area Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1247 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Seasonally cool and dry conditions will persist through the end of the week. 2) Moisture will slowly return over the weekend, with afternoon showers possible again by Sunday. A deep z500 low will drift only slowly eastward over eastern Canada late in the week, resulting in an unsettled upper pattern for the Carolinas. Guidance generally supports another shortwave passes late Thursday or Thursday night...with some ensemble variance in the latest LREF cycle, but fairly good confidence on timing. Following this, another period of flat NW upper flow can be expected going into the first part of the weekend, before an unsettled but poorly-agreed-upon pattern arrives on Sunday. Meanwhile, the surface pattern will gradually return to a more late-summer-like configuration featuring SE flow and moisture advection off the Atlantic late in the week...so dewpoints should gradually creep back toward (but not reach) seasonal normals over the weekend...and a chance afternoon PoP is warranted again by the end of the period. Despite this, little increase in low-level thickness is depicted in operational guidance, and so temperatures should remain normal through the end of D7. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Scattered showers continue across the northern and central NC mountains and it`s mostly VFR across the terminals as of 18Z. VFR should continue outside of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and early evening and outside of fog/low stratus overnight into early Monday morning. Went with TEMPOs for all terminals this afternoon/early evening to account for TSRA and associated restrictions ahead of a cold front. Drier conditions will return from west to east late this afternoon into early this evening, lingering through the rest of the TAF period. KAVL and KHKY have the best potential so see fog and low stratus develop overnight into daybreak Monday. But confidence is low as guidance has been backing off on the severity of restrictions. Thus, went with TEMPOs to account for IFR/MVFR fog and FEW to SCT stratus. Any fog/stratus that develops will lift shortly after daybreak. Winds will generally be VRB at KGSP and KGMU with WSW/W winds expected at KAND through late this afternoon. KCLT and KHKY will see mainly a W wind with a WSW or WNW component at times through late tonight. Winds east of the mountains will turn more N/NW overnight into early Monday morning as the front pushes across the terminals. Winds at KAVL will remain WNW/NW through the TAF period. Wind speeds will generally range from ~2-7 kts through the period. Outlook: Dry conditions will linger through most of the week. Fog and low stratus may develop each night, mainly in the mountain valleys. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AR