888
FXUS62 KGSP 262347 CCA
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
647 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure arrives for Thanksgiving and the weekend from
central Canada. Another cold front arrives Sunday with a secondary
low pressure system on Tuesday. This may result in lingering
precipitation chances through the first half of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Wind Advisory Remains in Effect Across the Northern North
Carolina Mountains through 11 AM EST Thursday

2) Cold Night Ahead with Lows Falling Near or Below Freezing

3) Dry again Tomorrow with Much Cooler and Below Normal Highs

A digging upper trough propagates eastward from the Upper Great
Lakes into western Quebec as broad cyclonic flow aloft settles over
the eastern CONUS through the near term. The attendant cold front
will push east of the forecast area early this evening.

Strong CAA behind the front will create a sharp pressure gradient
across the mountains, leading to advisory level gusts in the
northern mountains (45-55 mph above 3500 ft) through late Thursday
morning. Thus, the Wind Advisory remains in effect for all of Avery
County as well as Yancey and Mitchell Counties above 3500 ft through
11 AM EST Thursday. Strong CAA will also lead to cold overnight
lows, with temps expected to fall near or below freezing across the
forecast area. Intermittent gap winds can be expected across the
usual areas of the SC Upstate this evening into tonight.

Upper cirrus will increase around/shortly after daybreak, becoming
broken to overcast Thursday morning. Cirrus will to clear out
briefly east of the mountains before thickening again Thursday
afternoon. Clear skies return area-wide by the late afternoon
Thursday. Gusty winds will linger across the mountains Thursday.
Breezy winds may return east of the mountains as mixing develops
Thursday afternoon. However, winds east of the mountains are not
expected to be as gusty as what we saw today. Thursday`s highs will
be much cooler, ending up 6-8 degrees below normal east of the
mountains and 10-15 degrees below normal across the mountains. Min
RH values should drop below 30% east of the mountains, but recent
rainfall should help limit the fire danger somewhat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Wednesday:

Key Message: Cold and dry conditions continue through the short term

A cold and very dry air mass will remain in place through Friday
and Saturday. Forecast temperatures will generally run ten to
fifteen degrees below normal through the period. The drop will
feel especially sharp given the eight day stretch of above normal
temperatures that preceded this pattern.

NBM ensemble spread remains small for daytime highs, with only a
two to three degree difference between the twenty fifth and seventy
fifth percentiles for both Friday and Saturday. This supports high
confidence in below normal but relatively uniform temperatures
during the day.

Overnight lows are slightly more uncertain due to questions
regarding how efficiently winds decouple, especially across the
Foothills where NBM spread for MinT ranges from three to five
degrees Thursday night. Even if winds remain elevated enough
to limit radiational cooling somewhat, confidence is high that
temperatures will fall below freezing across nearly the entire
forecast area. NBM probabilities of MinT below 28 degrees range from
seventy to one hundred percent across all areas except the urban
core of Charlotte and portions of the Upper Savannah River Basin.

High pressure centered overhead Friday night will bring ideal
radiational cooling conditions under clear skies and calm
winds. This will likely be the coldest night of the upcoming week,
with lows falling into the teens across the mountains and the
lower to mid twenties across the Foothills and Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Wednesday:

Key Message 1: Unsettled weather returns late this weekend into
early next week

High pressure will retreat quickly off the East Coast Saturday
night. Upstream, an upper trough moving out of the Pacific
Northwest will phase with a digging Alberta clipper as it reaches
the Intermountain West Friday night. This combined system will then
phase with a second shortwave digging out of central Canada. The
resulting evolution favors a Great Lakes cutter scenario with the
surface low tracking well to our north and west this weekend.

Although the deeper synoptic lift will pass north of the region,
moisture advection from the Gulf will support a chance of light
overrunning precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday ahead
of the cold front. Forecast trends have shifted toward lower PoPs
and QPF with this initial round. A brief wintry mix at the onset
cannot be completely ruled out across the higher elevations of the
NC mountains and portions of the northern Foothills north of I 40,
where cold air damming and wet bulb cooling may hold temperatures
near freezing. However, NBM probabilities for snow or freezing
rain remain less than ten percent, and any wintry component would
be brief and confined to the terrain if it occurs at all.


Key Message 2: Increasing rain chances Monday and Tuesday with
potential for lingering cold air

There remains uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front
on Monday, as solutions vary between a clean frontal passage and
a stalled boundary lingering over the region. The NBM maintains
low chance PoPs Monday, with precipitation expected to fall as rain.

Confidence is increasing in a secondary wave of low pressure
developing along the Gulf Coast and tracking northeast along the
boundary Monday night into Tuesday. This wave would bring a more
widespread and heavier round of rainfall to the region. With high
pressure positioned to the northeast during this period, the setup
may reinforce a cold air damming wedge across western NC. If the
wedge persists or strengthens, elevated concern would arise for
freezing rain potential in climatologically favored locations such
as the northern mountains and northern Foothills. Current ensemble
probabilities remain low, but the pattern warrants monitoring.

In the wake of the departing wave, wrap around northwest flow snow
may develop across the highest elevations late Tuesday or later,
depending on the speed of the system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry through the 00Z forecast period.
Gusty NW winds will continue at KAVL through the period. Winds east
of the mountains could still see intermittent gusts through late
this evening (especially at KGSP and KGMU due to the gap wind)
before gusts gradually diminish overnight. Wind direction east of
the mountains will generally be W/NW through the period. Low-end
gusts may return tomorrow afternoon, especially at KCLT and KAND.
Clear skies will linger through late tonight before BKN cirrus
develops around or shortly after daybreak across the terminals.
Cirrus looks to clear out briefly east of the mountains before
thickening again early Thursday afternoon. KAVL should see BKN to
OVC cirrus stick around through late tomorrow afternoon. Clear skies
 return by the late afternoon hours on Thursday across the
terminals.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through the rest of the week. A storm system
approaches the area Sunday, bringing the next chance for flight
restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for NCZ033-049-050.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/CAC
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...AR