218
FXUS62 KGSP 031804
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
104 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will result in chilly and dry conditions tonight and
most of the day on Thursday. Conditions turn even colder Friday as
precipitation returns to the area, with a wintry mix likely in
portions of western North Carolina. Chances for precipitation linger
through the weekend, with warmer but still below-normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and cool weather continues through Thursday.

2) Patchy fog possible in portions of the Piedmont tonight.

Sfc high pressure will weaken as it drifts east across the Carolinas
tonight. Low-level flow will turn out of the west/northwest, which
combined with solar heating, should dissipate most of the thin
stratocu across the Piedmont this aftn thru early evening. Mostly
clear to clear skies and light wind should allow temps to fall
into the 20s to lower 30s. Some guidance is hinting at patchy fog
forming in the Piedmont, but widespread dense fog is not expected.

A vigorous southern stream shortwave trough will eject out of the
Four Corners region tonight, while a northern stream trough crosses
the Great Lakes. Increasing upper jet between these features will
dip south across the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. The jet
will bring in thickening high clouds thru the day Thursday, but
no precip is expected thru 00z Friday. Any fog and/or low stratus
that forms tonight is expected to burn off by late morning, just
in time for the increasing high clouds. If the clouds are thicker
than expected, the NBM highs may be a little too warm. But for now,
expect highs mainly in the lower to mid 50s in the Piedmont and
lowest mountain valleys, which is still a few degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wednesday:

A complicated Miller A type low and weak cold air damming scenario
still on track for this period. Moisture and forcing increase
Thursday night into Friday as the low moves along the Gulf Coast to
the Carolina coast. Precip spreads in from the south and west
Thursday night and continuing into Friday. The CAD high slides off
shore during this time keeping this a weak in-situ CAD. Forecast
soundings do show enough cold air in place at the start for precip
to begin as snow at the higher elevations then changing through
sleet to freezing rain or rain as the warm nose strengthens. Precip
begins as snow across the I-40 corridor changing to sleet then rain.
Elsewhere, expect mainly rain although we could see the usual mix
with light sleet as temps wet bulb downward at onset before quickly
becoming rain.

Right now, expect ice and snow accums to remain in the Advisory
range across the northern mountains with less than an inch of snow
for the I-40 corridor. Typically warmer mountain locations, like the
Little TN basin, along with Pigeon French Broad valleys, would see
light accums at best, while the higher elevations around those
valleys would see accums. No accums expected elsewhere. Still quite
a bit of uncertainty on the amounts, but moderate confidence in the
overall patter. Still to early for any Advisory decisions, but that
time is approaching.

Precip tapers off Friday evening across most of NC but some light
precip lingers across NE GA and the Upstate. This would be all rain.
Precip chances increase slightly Saturday as the next Gulf low
begins taking shape and moving east. This should be all rain but for
the highest elevations of the mountains where some snow could mix
in.

Friday highs will be well below normal with the CAD and precip then
warmer but still below normal for Saturday. Lows around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Wednesday:

Guidance still showing a second Miller A low developing Sunday and
moving to the Atlantic on Monday. However, they disagree on the
track of the low and how much interaction takes place between the
low and a northern stream short wave moving near or over our area.

The ECMWF is the farthest south with a weaker short wave interaction
showing some precip chance for our area but with spotty light QPF.
The Canadian is farthest north with more interaction and more precip
coverage and QPF. The GFS is in between the two. The ECMWF has
little to no wintry precip given the weaker drier scenario. The
Canadian shows precip beginning as rain then mixing with and
changing to snow before ending. The GFS is similar to the Canadian
with a later transition and lower QPF. Pattern recognition suggests
that the changeover to snow outside of the mountains is less likely
when cold air is arriving on the backside of a storm system, but a
changeover for the mountains is more likely. The model blend keeps
PoP in the chance to slight chance range for this period, which
seems reasonable at this point. P-type is mainly rain with some snow
across the mountains. As usual, this is low confidence and subject
to change.

Dry and cold high pressure builds in Monday and remains in place on
Tuesday. The air mass moderates on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A thin stratocu deck will continue to slowly
erode thru the aftn hours, with low-VFR bases, except MVFR around
KAND at the start. Otherwise...mostly clear skies expected from
late aftn thru the evening. Latest guidance is hinting at patchy
fog developing in the Piedmont, as high pressure settles over the
region. But confidence remains only around 30-40% of some vsby
restrictions at KCLT and the Upstate TAF sites before daybreak
Thursday. Any fog and/or low stratus that forms should mix out by
late morning, with increasing high clouds streaming in from the
west thru 18z Thursday. Winds will be generally light/variable,
but favor a S/SW direction east of the mountains and N/NW at KAVL.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected into Thursday evening, then rain
chances return Thursday night and into the weekend, along with
possible associated flight restrictions. Unsettled weather may
persist thru Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK