674
FXUS62 KGSP 011437
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1037 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers return across the area today, mainly across the
mountains. A weak cold front crosses the region on Wednesday with
dry high pressure building in behind it on Thursday. Another cold
front tracks across the area on Friday, bringing the potential for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Drier conditions
are expected this weekend as high pressure returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM: A weak short wave trough rotating around the
departing upper low rotates across the area today providing some
weak lift. There will be enough moisture for this forcing to kick
off diurnally driven isolated/widely scattered showers, mainly
across western NC. Instability will be weak, so thunder chances are
quite low. Precip should generally be light. Winds turn northerly
during the day but remain light. Morning stratus has interrupted the
diurnal heating cycle this morning, but as in recent mornings, much
of this is already burning off, and expect sufficient heating to
allow max temps to warm slightly above normal. Any showers should
dissipate during the evening. Looks like another night of developing
low clouds and fog. At least patchy dense fog will be expected
again. Lows will be around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

1) Above Normal Temperatures Continue

2) Mostly Dry Conditions Expected

As of 200 AM Tuesday: A weak and moisture starved cold front will
track across the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night. 00Z
high-res model guidance sources (HRRR/NAMNest/RAP) show the
potential for diurnal spotty showers ahead of the front on Wednesday
but the NBM is dry. Went with NBM PoPs and maintained dry conditions
for now as only low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the
front. Thursday looks to remain mostly dry as well with the
southwestern periphery of a sfc high building into the region from
the northeast. Despite the cold front, highs will remain around 3-5
degrees above climo. Lows will end up around 10-12 degrees above
climo thanks to increasing clouds each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) A Cold Front with Better Moisture Tracks Over the Area on Friday
Bringing the Potential for Scattered Showers and Isolated
Thunderstorms

2) Dry High Pressure Builds into the Region this Weekend Before
Another Cold Front Tracks Across the Area on Monday

3) Above Normal Temperatures Linger through Early Next Week Despite
the Fronts

As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday: Another cold front, with slightly better
moisture, will track over the forecast area on Friday. This may
allow scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop ahead
of and along the front Friday afternoon and early evening, mainly
across the mountains. Dry high pressure builds in behind the
departing front this weekend before another cold front tracks over
the area on Monday. This front looks to haves less moisture
associated with it so capped PoPs to slight chance across the
mountains and the northern North Carolina Foothills and Piedmont
Monday afternoon/early evening. Highs each day will end up around 3-
6 degrees above climo, with lows each night remaining around 10-12
degrees above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: LIFR stratus and varying categories of vsby
restrictions have spread into KCLT and KHKY. Restrictions will
likely develop at KGSP/KGMU after daybreak as the clouds move SW.
KAVL may see something but it`s more uncertain there. Should not
reach KAND or by VFR by the time it arrives there. Vsby restrictions
should dissipate relatively quickly but cigs will be slow to
rise/scatter out through the morning or early afternoon. Isolated
SHRA are possible, especially near the NC TAF sites, but chance too
low for the TAF. Expect another round of low stratus and possibly
fog overnight. Light N to NE wind today becomes light and variable
overnight.

Outlook: Drier conditions return through late week as high pressure
builds into the region. Fog/low stratus will be possible overnight
into daybreak each day, mainly in the mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RWH