Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
436 FXUS62 KGSP 101741 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 141 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low will develop south of the Carolinas and lift northward toward the Outer Banks over the weekend. This system may bring some rain to the North Carolina Piedmont and eastern Upstate late Saturday through Sunday as it passes by to our east. The low will continue to slowly track northeast along the Mid-Atlantic Coast early next week, with dry high pressure and above normal temperatures returning to the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1257 PM Friday: Satellite imagery shows low level clouds continuing to move westward and out from underneath the cirrus shield associated with the upper trof over the Southeast and the developing sfc low along the east coast of FL. The nearest precip was well to our south, so the afternoon and evening look dry and breezy. No mid-course corrections were made for the afternoon. Over the next 24 hours, the main story will be the organizing/deepening sfc low off the Southeast Coast in response to the mid/upper low centered roughly over GA. Tonight should be quiet enough as the remnant dry wedge configuration breaks down, with more cloudiness over the east, but a chance of some valley fog over the mtns early Saturday. Lows will be around normal. The models have been having some difficultly with run-to-run consistency and with each other over the past few days. The trend this morning continues to be toward a system that moves northward closer to the coast, and thus more of an impact with cloudiness and light precip chances farther westward. The upshot is that our formerly nice-looking Saturday doesn`t look as nice across as much of the fcst area. Like today, the cloud shield will cover more of the fcst area, keeping the temps down a bit more below normal. The edge of the light precip may be able to work its way in from the southeast and into the southeastern part of metro Charlotte in the afternoon. The CAMs concur, with all of them showing some light precip into the area from Chester to Monroe. One should not be surprised if the afternoon sprinkles/light rain end up even farther to the N/W on upcoming forecasts. The clouds will continue to hold high temps about a category below normal. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Rain Chances Increasing for the Eastern Third of the Forecast Area 2) Breezy NE Winds Continue East of the Mountains through Sunday The latest guidance continues to trend a little to the west with the coastal low track and associated band of wrap-around moisture Saturday night thru Sunday. The NBM has finally started to catch on to this, increasing PoPs well into the Chc range as far west as the NC Blue Ridge Escarpment and the Greenville area. There will likely be a sharp gradient of precip, as the low drifts north along the Carolina Coast, so wouldn`t be surprised if the PoPs continue to trend upward along and east of the I-77 corridor. QPF is not expected to be heavy this far inland from the low`s center. At the very least, most of the forecast area will be cloudy to mostly cloudy with breezy NE winds, especially across the Piedmont. Gusts of 25-30 mph will be possible Sunday aftn across the I-77 corridor, as the low`s center reaches its closest proximity to the area. Lows will be a few degrees above normal under mostly cloudy skies. Highs will range from slightly below normal east to a few deg above normal in the west. The coastal low will briefly stall Monday over the Mid-Atlantic coastal waters, as the associated upper low merges with a northern stream low spinning over the eastern Great Lakes. The low should be far enough east of the area to allow precip chances to taper off by Monday morning. Some lingering cloudiness and breezy northerly winds can be expected across the eastern third or so of the forecast area. Otherwise, temps should rebound to about 5-10 deg above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Above normal temperatures and dry weather expected through the medium range. The coastal low will slowly drift east away from the Mid-Atlantic Coast Tuesday into Wednesday, as a large upper ridge builds across much of the central CONUS. This ridge will stay nearly stationary, keeping a deep-layer dry NWLY flow atop the forecast area thru the end of the medium range. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal thru the period, probably the warmest Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the Piedmont. A shortwave trough will dive SE around the eastern periphery of the ridge Wednesday night, but with little moisture to work with, will only result in a slight drop in temps for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Though an MVFR ceiling restriction will remain very close to KCLT thru mid-afternoon, continued warming should deepen the boundary layer just enough to keep the cloud base above 030. Continued westward drift of the cirrus shield associated with developing low pressure to our south may suppress the low clouds from 20Z onward. Other terminals not affected by the cirrus shield will be in-and-out of a VFR broken ceiling thru peak heating. Winds will remain gusty from the NE. Around sunset, most of the low clouds will dry up and winds should become less gusty as mixing stops. We have a chance for valley fog at KAVL in the pre-dawn hours Saturday, but crossover temp might become more unfavorable. We will keep the fog restrictions limited in a TEMPO group. For Saturday, mostly mid/high clouds thru the period, with the exception of KCLT, where low clouds may return before the end of the period. Wind should become gusty from the NE once again. Outlook: Some restrictions are possible at KCLT Saturday night and Sunday as low pressure passes northward over the Outer Banks. VFR from Sunday night onward at all terminals. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARK NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...ARK LONG TERM...ARK AVIATION...PM