132
FXUS62 KGSP 070809
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
309 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains over the Carolinas today with a weak cold
front moving south across the area Thursday night. Rain chances
diminish today with above normal temperatures. High pressure from
the north should keep our area dry on Friday and most of Saturday
then rain chances return with a front from Saturday night into
Monday while above normal temperatures continue. Dry high pressure
returns for Tuesday and moves east Wednesday with temps slowly
falling to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EST Thursday: A digging trough will continue to set
up shop over the Four Corners region, while upper ridging off the
Southeast Coast deamplifies through the forecast period. The plume
of tropical moisture that resides within the southwest flow aloft
is gradually shifting south and east of the CFWA. Lots of heavy
rainfall accompanied the plume of moisture, but mostly stayed
south as only the outer edge of the precip shield pushed mainly
into locations along and south and east of the I-85 corridor. Most
of the CAMs clear much of the area out of precip by daybreak, with
some feedback on the backside allowing isolated showers to develop
through the rest of the morning hours, mainly across the Upstate and
northeast Georgia. Dry air entrainment will slowly filter into the
area by peak heating and into the evening hours as a backdoor front
finally advances south into the northern half of the CFWA by then
with a continental surface high pushing across the Northern Great
Plains and the flow aloft flattens. The frontal progression takes
time as the front is forecasted to still be in the southern tier
of the CFWA by daybreak Friday. Lingering moisture and boundary
convergence on the southern side of the front may allow for a few
showers to develop during the afternoon into the overnight period,
but minimal QPF response is expected, especially with only limited
convective elements available. Afternoon highs will run 10-15
degrees above normal despite broken to scattered cloud cover as
weak low-level WAA continues to nose into the region during the
daytime period. Overnight lows remain 15-20 degrees above normal
as extensive cloud cover and elevated dewpoints remain in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Thursday: An upper ridge axis builds over our area
Friday and an upper trough moves off the NE coast and an upper low
moves from the Four Corners region to the Central Plains. The ridge
axis moves east Saturday as the upper low moves into the Upper
Midwest and southwesterly flow develops over our area. Any lingering
precip should end quickly Friday morning as dry high pressure builds
in behind a cold front moving to our south. The high takes on a CAD
pattern Saturday as moisture begins moving in from the west Saturday
night on southerly upslope flow and isentropic lift. Precip chances
in crease across the mountains Saturday night as a result. Despite
the high building in from the north, any colder air is delayed with
highs Friday 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The cooler air mass does
move in on Saturday with highs a few degrees above normal. The
cooler air does begin moving in Friday night but lows end up 10 to
15 degrees above normal. Lows drop to 5 to 10 degrees above normal
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thursday: An upper low over the upper Midwest crosses
the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night. The trough south of the low
crosses our area during this time. The associated surface front
approaches our area from the west, while the center of a CAD-like
high moves off the Carolina coast. Moisture increases ahead of the
front with increasing precip chances in the southerly upslope flow
and isentropic lift. The cold front slowly crosses the area Monday
scouring the wedge and bringing an end to the precip. Dry high
pressure builds in for Tuesday, with another cold front approaching
the area Wednesday bringing a slow increase in precip chances late
Wednesday. With precip, clouds, and weak wedge for Sunday, highs
will be near to a few degrees below normal. Highs rebound to around
10 degrees above normal Monday, drop a few degrees Tuesday, then
fall to a few degrees above normal Wednesday. Lows Sunday night
rebound to around 15 degrees above normal, drop to around 10 degrees
above normal Monday night, then fall a few more degrees Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Shield of precip is mainly south and east
of all of the TAF sites, but the outer edge continues to clip the
Upstate sites and KCLT. Placed a TEMPO for -SHRA and associated
restrictions, with VCSH in the prevailing line through early
morning. Expect the lower cloud deck to expand further into the
area through the overnight with MVFR/IFR cigs expected. Can`t
fully rule out LIFR, but would most likely happen at KAND, where
the better pool of moisture is stationed. Fog has developed,
mainly in the locations that have received rainfall and could
lower through daybreak before lifting. Low cloud deck will be
stubborn through the morning into the afternoon hours. KAND may
keep at least MVFR cigs through the forecast period. KAVL and
KHKY is expected to scatter much quicker than the rest of the TAF
sites. VFR cigs should return by peak heating, with a few scattered
showers sticking around, so kept a VCSH mention through much of the
daytime period. Model guidance suggests cigs/vsbys will crash once
again overnight tonight as moisture lingers, but precip shouldn`t be
an issue. Winds are forecasted to be light and variable overnight,
while remaining light through the rest of the period. Variability
component will be in play thanks to the presence of a frontal
boundary as guidance shows a east-northeasterly in the Upstate
and south-southwesterly in the western NC terminals before all TAF
sites toggle to a north-northwesterly component by daybreak Friday
as the front sags south of the area.

Outlook: Periodic restrictions will be in place through Thursday
as a warm and moist airmass lingers over the region. Rain chances
are expected to diminish on Friday as a front pushes into the area
from the north. More showers and restrictions are possible over
the weekend as another wedge pattern develops over the western
Carolinas.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CAC