883
FXUS62 KGSP 150832
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
332 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions will persist through Tuesday.  Rain will
return to the area Tuesday night through Thursday, with much cooler
temperatures working in Wednesday night and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EST Friday: IR satellite imagery shows extensive
low stratus east of the mtns that is only grudgingly eroding
in the face of slowly improving downslope mixing. The clouds
over the wrn Upstate and northeast GA seem especially stubborn,
due to some weak convergence in the flow helping to hold the low
clouds in. Meanwhile, cloudiness continues along the TN border as
moisture is forced upslope by the NW flow. Not much was showing
on radar, although the KMRX radar showed some very light precip
moving out of southeast KY and that could make a run up the west
slopes through daybreak. A small precip chance will be kept on
the TN border. Fortunately, the temps are warm enough that only a
light rain is possible. Some of the cloudiness is likely to hang
on to around daybreak. Won`t rule out patchy dense fog, and will
monitor for a Dense Fog Advisory.

An upper low will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast early in the
day and upslope moisture gradually diminishes this morning, which
should bring an end to any precip chances we have by 15Z. Continued
downslope mixing should scatter out the low clouds in the early
afternoon. Thereafter, the forecast looks quiet as the gradient
relaxes and an upstream ridge pushes sfc high pressure in from
the west. Afternoon sun and the downslope flow should allow temps
to rebound 10-15 degrees back to normal. Clear sky tonight and
a sustained light NW wind will keep low temps near normal as
well. Not much controversy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 236 AM EST Friday: No major changes to the short term period
tonight.  Heights will rise as broad upper ridging works into the
Southeast, while at the low levels CAA will continue to taper off
as flow turns around out of the northeast by Saturday afternoon.
Any lingering upslope cloud cover along the NC-TN border will
dissipate, giving way to generaly clear skies through the weekend.
On Sunday, low-level flow will become southwesterly and weakly
warm-advective, so profiles will become slightly more favorable for
perhaps an afternoon cu deck.  Temperatures will be above-normal -
in the mid 60s on Saturday, then the upper 60s on Sunday, with a
few spots along the Savannah River Valley perhaps hitting 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 257 AM EST Friday: By Monday morning, a cold front will
dip into the Ohio Valley, but the operational guidance depicts
it stalling somewhere over southern Ohio into Kentucky and
West Virginia through Monday and Monday night.  We`ll remain,
therefore, in a southwest flow regime at least through Tuesday
night.  By mid-week, all the operational guidance shows a robust
upper low cutting off from the mean flow over Iowa and Illinois,
and digging into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.  This should drive a
strong cold front across the area on Wednesday night or Thursday.
So, warm temperatures should continue through Wednesday, and rain
chances should ramp up starting late Tuesday.  By Thursday morning,
model consensus has us under northwest flow conditions once again,
with the potential for some snow in the mountains (especially
the Tennessee border zones) and significantly cooler temperatures
across the CWA through the end of D7.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Still a mess across the area as WNW
downslope flow was still working on the edges of a residual low
stratus deck. This should keep KHKY in the clear, but will vex
the Upstate terminals and KCLT for a good bit of the pre-dawn
hours with IFR/LIFR restrictions. The guidance is encouraging,
with the downslope improving around the start of operations this
morning, resulting in a quick change to MVFR and VFR as the mixed
out area expands over metro Charlotte. This might not be the case
at KAND, where weak low level convergence may act to hold in the
LIFR restriction until after sunrise. Either way, improvement will
take place everywhere by mid-morning and we should be VFR from
that point onward outside the mtns. Wind should be generally NW
to N. Should be gusty at KAVL after sunrise with the deeper mixing
and channeled flow.

Outlook: High pressure brings dry and VFR conditions back Friday
into early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...PM