005
FXUS62 KGSP 281730
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1230 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions continue over the weekend with another cold front
arriving by Saturday night. Expect cooler temperatures from Sunday
into early next week. A moist cold front may bring thunderstorms
to our area during the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM EDT Friday: Mountain wave cirrus will diminish through
the afternoon leaving sunny skies. Winds are beginning the process
of shifting to the SW with the developing lee trof, but they may not
fully complete the process for a couple of hours. Otherwise, the
warm, dry, and occasionally gusty forecast remains on track.

Otherwise, our NW flow behind yesterdays short wave passage should
quickly flatten as another clipper-type system moves across the
upper Great Lakes. This should allow dry high pressure to continue
across the region through afternoon, with an air mass that is quite
dry. And the potential for low RH is the main concern. With
dewpoints running down around the lower part of the guidance
envelope overnight, the trend was continued through the day as it is
likely that some even drier air will mix down from late morning thru
late afternoon. Taking this into account, we end up with RH dropping
down into the 20-25% range outside the mtns. In other words,
critical levels for fire weather concerns. Please see the Fire
Weather discussion below. High temps will be about five degrees
cooler than yesterday, but still five degrees above normal.

For tonight, we may start to feel some of the effects of an
approaching cold front associated with the Clipper passing well to
our north, but for now, it would appear the front will not reach
the mtns before daybreak Saturday. Not that it would really matter,
because the moisture/forcing/precip looks like it will be on track
to move well to our north again. The front remaining to our west
will help to keep overnight temps seasonally mild once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3:05 AM EST Friday: The short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Saturday with broad upper trofing digging down across the Great
Lakes while steep upper ridging builds over the western CONUS.
Over the next couple of days, the trof axis will translate over
our fcst area and then lift off the Atlantic Coast with heights
rebounding in its wake to end the period. At the sfc, a dry,
trailing cold front will move thru our CWA early in the period
on Saturday but is not expected to produce any precip over our
area. In the front`s wake, robust Canadian high pressure will
spread over the Southeast from the NW and linger for the rest
of the short-term period. The main concern for the period will
be the potential for increasing fire danger. The airmass that
spreads across the region over the weekend is very dry with RH
values falling to critical values possibly on Saturday and more
likely on Sunday. In addition, we can expect gusty winds on Sat-
turday with lighter winds on Sunday. Temperatures are expected
to be well above normal on Saturday and then cool significantly
for Sunday, with highs roughly 6 to 12 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2:45 AM EST Friday: The extended forecast picks up at 12z
on Monday with heights rebounding over the Southeast as broad
upper trofing lifts off the Atlantic Coast and relatively flat
upper ridging spreads over our region. Most of the long-range
guidance has an embedded h5 shortwave translate over our area
late Monday/early Tuesday, but it appears pretty paltry at this
time. By mid-week, another broad upper trof will translate east-
ward across the CONUS and lift over our area towards the end of
the period on Thursday. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be
centered just to our north and cover most of the eastern CONUS
as the period begins. Over the next 24 to 48 hrs, the high will
drift offshore as a robust low pressure system gets ejected out
of the Central Plains and tracks towards the Ohio River Valley.
This system is expected to lift a warm front over our area on
Tuesday and then a trailing cold front sometime Wednesday. In
its wake, sfc high pressure spreads back over the Carolinas on
Thursday to end the period. As for the sensible wx, I limit PoPs
to a slight/solid chance for Tuesday as the warm front lifts over
our area. The main concern will be on Wednesday, as the long-range
models remain in good agreement wrt the timing of the cold frontal
passage. If the fropa occurs during the afternoon, we will likely
have a good amount of shear and a decent amount of instability
across our area. Thus, strong to severe thunderstorms certainly
may be possible with the fropa. Nonetheless, we`re still talking
about day 5, so the mode and timing still remain fairly uncertain.
For now, stay tuned to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals through the period. Just
some slowly dissipating mountain wave cirrus this afternoon, unless
a smoke plume drifts overhead. Winds are in the process of shifting
to the SW outside of the mountains as a lee trof develops. However,
the full shift may not happen until 20Z. NNW wind expected until
then. N wind at KAVL. Winds diminish this evening remaining SW, and
maybe trending SW at KAVL as well, with clear skies. KAVL will see
some LLWS toward morning with a more westerly low level ridgetop
wind. Winds pick up speed and become gusty from the WSW during the
morning as a dry cold front moves in. Winds then turn WNW for the
afternoon. KAVL will see gusty NNW wind. Some VFR stratocu moves in
with the front and can`t rule out some brief cigs.

Outlook: Dry and generally VFR through at least Monday, possibly
excepting periods of low clouds along the TN/NC border northwest of
KAVL. Shower and scattered thunderstorm chances and associated
restrictions may return with a cold front Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Danger Statement remains effect for the Upstate of South
Carolina thru Saturday evening. A Fire Danger Statement is now in
effect for all of the western Carolinas and NE Georgia from 10 AM
this morning until 7 PM this evening. We can expect lighter winds
today, however minimum RH values are expected to drop below 25%
for several hours this afternoon. Low RH values return on Saturday,
along with gusty winds. Additional fire danger statements will
likely be needed over the weekend for our NC and GA zones.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Increased Fire Danger until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Increased Fire Danger through Saturday evening for SCZ008>014-
     019-101>109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...