Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
614 FXUS62 KGSP 160546 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 146 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected across the area through Friday night in the wake of a dry backdoor cold front. Temperatures warm again on Saturday ahead of another cold front that will bring shower chances on Sunday, mainly to the mountains. Seasonable temperatures return behind this front early next week before another front approaches by Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 AM EDT Thursday: The ridge axis of an Omega Block slowly moves east toward the area through the period. This keeps a northwestern flow in place. At the surface, high pressure builds into the area from the north. These features will keep dry air in place across the area. Low end gusty N winds expected over the mountains with NE winds elsewhere. Can`t rule out some low end gusts outside of the mountains mid-morning as mixing takes place. Winds become light tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes with the center of the high moving closer. Highs today will be a few degrees above normal. Lows tonight up to 5 degrees below normal with only some patchy frost at the higher elevations of the northern mountains. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 120 am EDT Thursday: The axis of an upper ridge within highly amplified pattern will progress from just east of the Miss Valley at the start of the period to the Atlantic Coast by Sunday morning, with cyclonic flow aloft/deep SW flow developing across our forecast area by Saturday. As a result, seasonably dry/warm conditions on Fri/Fri night will give way to warming and increasingly humid conditions Sat/Sat night. Temperatures will be within a degree or so of climo during the first half of the period, warming to around 5 degrees above normal during the latter half of the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 am EDT Thursday: A dynamic upper trough will take on an increasingly negative tilt as it sweeps across the East Sunday/Sunday night. With the axis of the upper jet forecast to pass just north of our area, the deepest/strongest forcing will impact the Mid-Atlantic and points north. Meanwhile, moisture transport in advance of approaching cold front will occur along a narrow axis...around the western periphery of remnant surface ridge...with moisture transport into our area also possibly being disrupted by deep convection along the Gulf Coast. As such, warm sector destabilization is expected to be rather meager this far north. With the deeper forcing passing north, the global models are increasingly trending toward a scenario of a weakening frontal band of showers moving into the Appalachians by Sunday afternoon, with the band more or less falling apart by the time it moves into the Piedmont later in the day. Therefore, we continue to trend Sunday PoPs in the negative direction, esp east of the mountains...with general 50-70% chances over the mountains...tapering to only 10-20% across the eastern third of the CWA. Above normal temperatures at the start of the period gives way to a return of near-to-slightly below normal conditions early in the new work week. By mid-week, global models generally agree that another round of height falls and associated frontal boundary will approach the East, with forcing and moisture profiles for our area appearing eerily similar to the Sunday frontal system. Token 20-30 PoPs are advertised for mainly the mountains Tue night/early Wed. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the TAF period as high pressure builds into the area from the north. Skies should remain SKC, but some VFR stratocu could move south into the mountains today and linger tonight. Dry air and an occasionally gusty N breeze should keep the mtn valley fog away from KAVL this morning. Light N to NE winds expected elsewhere through the TAF period. Mountain valley fog will be more likely tonight, but chance at KAVL is too low for the TAF for now. Outlook: VFR conditions to persist through Saturday, except for the potential for mountain valley fog and/or low stratus each morning. A cold front may bring showers and associated restrictions Sunday, with dry conditions returning on Monday. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDL NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...RWH