Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
428 FXUS62 KGSP 121038 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 638 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry weather with warm temperatures returns today and is expected through the workweek, then a strong cold front brings much cooler temperatures over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Dry weather with warm temperatures returns today and is expected through the workweek, then a strong cold front brings much cooler temperatures over the weekend. Upper ridging will quickly build in behind the remnants of Isaias today, bringing drier conditions and gusty winds across the mountains. Still expect 30-40 mph gusts possible across the higher elevations thru this morning, then gradually diminish this aftn into this evening. Gusts are not expected to be high enough to warrant a Wind Advisory. Lingering moisture along the TN border in NW flow will wring out a few light showers thru daybreak, then clouds should clear out by the aftn. Temps return to a few deg above normal under mostly sunny skies. The upper ridge will dominate over the Southeast thru Thursday, then a vigorous trough dives thru the Great Lakes and carves out a deep trough along the East Coast Friday into the weekend. This will allow a strong cold front to cross the forecast area and usher in the coldest temps of the season so far. The front will have little moisture to work with, maybe producing a few showers along the front as it crosses the mountains. Strong CAA will bring gusty NW winds and falling temps. Temps will be 5-10 deg below normal, with lows possibly getting into the 30s across most of the mountains, where areas of frost and/or light freeze may occur Saturday night. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. MVFR stratocu will create some cigs at KAVL early this morning then dissipate by mid-morning. Elsewhere, just a few VFR stratocu spilling out of the mountains before dissipating. Otherwise, mainly some spotty cirrus through the period. Gusty NNW wind will continue through the day at KAVL and develop elsewhere by mid-morning. KAND least likely to see any gusts with winds W to NW. Light winds expected tonight with mountain valley fog returning. Outlook: VFR outside of morning mountain valley fog. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ ARK/RWH