702
FXUS62 KGSP 020614
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
214 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures and rain chances are in store for parts of the
area Wednesday, with the rain chances tapering off late Thursday.
Dry and exceptionally warm weather end the week. A cold front brings
shower and thunderstorm chances on Sunday, with drier and cooler
conditions early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday: Clouds are expanding across the
forecast area, as expected. Overall, the latest CAMs have delayed
onset of showers developing, with onset closer to 12z. Overall,
the forecast looks on track and will update PoPs with next update.

A slug of low-level WAA will develop late tonight into the
overnight hours, resulting in a rapid increase in cloud cover
after midnight, as moisture swept off the Atlantic builds into
the region. Hi-res models depict onset of rainfall in the hours
leading up to dawn...starting from the south where upglide flow
will initially be focused along the southern periphery of the
developing wedge. Temps will fall to near normal for the NC zones,
but may wind up a category or so above normal for the SC zones,
as the CAD wedge develops and cloud cover arrives early enough to
offset radiative cooling.

On Wednesday, this temperature disparity will only be enhanced as
widespread light rain continues across much of the area. Best PoP
is still advertised across the Blue Ridge Escarpment, and it`s
these zones that will see the most impressive QPF - on the order
of a quarter to a half inch through the end of Wednesday. Other
zones will see much less - potentially only a couple hundredths
of an inch of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tue: Moist upslope/upglide southerly flow continues
Wednesday evening with widespread showers ongoing. Showers taper off
overnight as the flow weakens. The flow turns more southwesterly
Thursday, but scattered showers redevelop across the area. The flow
weakens again Thursday night with showers diminishing. A cold front
drops toward the area but stalls over VA Friday. The southwesterly
flow remains weak, but there may be enough moisture and lift for
isolated showers over the mountains.

The CAD erodes Thursday with the weaker flow and less precip. Lows
Wednesday night will be around 20 degrees above normal with highs
Thursday around 15 degrees above normal. The warm air mass remains
in place through Friday, with lows Thursday night still around 20
degrees above normal. Highs Friday around 20 degrees above normal,
with 90s possibly outside of the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tue: The stalled front lifts north of the area Saturday
with southwesterly flow remaining. A dry day is expected with lows
and highs around 20 degrees above normal, keeping 90 degrees in play
outside of the mountains. A cold front moves into the area Sunday
with deep moisture and good forcing. There will be some instability
and possibly strong shear, but too early to tell if there`s a
significant severe thunderstorm risk. The risk of excessive rainfall
looks to be low. Lows remain nearly steady with highs 10 to 15
degrees above normal. A few showers may linger behind the front
Monday morning but should dissipate by afternoon with dry high
pressure for Tuesday. A much cooler air mass moves in behind the
front. Lows 10 to 15 degrees below normal Sunday night drop to 5 to
10 degrees below normal Monday night. Highs around normal Monday
drop to around 5 degrees below normal for Tuesday. If these trends
continue, then Frost/Freeze may become a concern next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Moisture will increase within a southerly
flow across the area, producing MVFR to IFR cigs likely at all
sites by daybreak. Scattered light showers are expected to develop,
mainly near the Blue Ridge Escarpment in the 12-18z time frame. The
clouds and showers will help lock in a weak wedge. From there,
confidence is moderate at best, on how the cigs will behave. Some
guidance has some improvement to MVFR, while others lock in
IFR or even some LIFR thru the day. With a lull in any precip,
feel there will be some improvement, but the wedge will hold on,
keeping the winds NE at the Upstate sites and at KHKY. Winds will
be generally favor an ESE to SE direction at KCLT. This evening,
guidance shows another round of showers, with greater coverage and
intesnity than what may occur this morning. Will mention PROB30
for TSRA at the Upstate sites, and may need one for CLT, based on
some guidance. The wedge is expected to start to erode and bring
winds out of the S/SE at all sites except KGSP/KGMU by 06z Thu. The
wedge erosion will likely result in cigs lowering to LIFR tonight.

Outlook: Scattered showers as well as cig restrictions may linger
into Thursday. Vsby restrictions will linger through daybreak
Thursday. IFR to MVFR cigs may return again late Thursday night
into Friday morning. Drier conditions return Thursday night
into Saturday night before another cold front brings shower and
thunderstorm chances, and associated restrictions, back on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 04-03

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1963     31 1936     64 1946     23 1936
   KCLT      90 1946     42 1915     62 1986     26 2021
                                        1946
   KGSP      87 1967     44 1901     62 2014     27 2021
                1963                                1993
                1946                                1902



RECORDS FOR 04-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      83 1999     33 1891     61 1893     22 1936
                1978
   KCLT      87 1999     43 1911     63 1986     29 1936
                            1899        1945
                                        1934
   KGSP      88 1963     44 1936     62 1999     25 1975
                1934



RECORDS FOR 04-05

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      86 1909     30 1891     60 2023     20 1944
                                        1910
   KCLT      88 1942     38 1891     62 1910     26 1891
   KGSP      90 1934     43 1899     60 2023     25 1904
                                        1888



RECORDS FOR 04-06

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1967     36 1950     64 2023     22 1898
   KCLT      90 2010     43 1931     67 2023     28 1891
                1929
   KGSP      88 2010     47 1950     65 2023     26 1904
                            1945

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/MPR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...