Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
748 FXUS62 KGSP 101047 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 647 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A more typical summertime pattern resumes today and into next week as daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms return. Temperatures remain at or below normal, but gradually warm through the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM: Varying amounts of stratocu across the area early this morning should become more widespread through the morning. Spotty light showers are possible as well, mainly over the Upper Savannah River valley. An inverted trough near the GA/SC coast and the cold air damming high remain in place through the period. A moist southeasterly flow continues through the period as well. Isentropic lift remains relatively weak this morning but increases this afternoon and continues tonight. Weak instability develops this afternoon as weak heating takes place. Expect scattered showers to develop during the afternoon and move northeast across the area. Can`t rule out a rogue lightning strike or two but overall chance of TSRA is low. QPF will be on the lighter side with spotty moderate values. Highs will again be below normal with the clouds and scattered showers, similar to Saturday`s highs. Scattered showers continue overnight in the continued upslope flow and isentropic lift. Again, a rogue lightning pulse is possible during the evening with similar QPF values during the day. Lows will be near normal. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 120 AM EDT Sunday: Starting off the work week with a return the more typical summertime pattern. The surface high pressure across the northeast is very slow to depart, but the Bermuda high to the south starts to amplify and become the dominant system over the area by Monday. Synoptically, the ridge persists over the eastern CONUS and by Tuesday, the flow aloft becomes more broad as the trough out west weakens. Moisture advection continues as surface winds turn more E/SE, keeping the 2 inch PWAT line along and south of I-85 through the period. The added moisture into the area and daily increased instability bumps up PoPs into widespread showers and thunderstorms for a few locations to the south (70-85%). The better chance for these storms looks to remain in the southern zones along and south of I-85. Given the weakened flow aloft, not expecting much on the severe side, but areas that receive multiple rounds of storms could have an isolated flash flood risk. By Tuesday, the return of more typical pop-up convection continues, bringing chance PoPs (50-70%) across the entire CWA. Temperatures warm but still remain below normal for the short term. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 125 AM EDT Sunday: Not a whole lot of change for the extended period. A modest ridge over the southwest propagates eastward and amplifies over the central/southeast CONUS by next weekend. This broad flow aloft keeps the area in the typical summertime pattern with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The CWA stays locked into the western fringe of the surface high off the coast and allows for a constant stream of moisture to envelop the area. PoPs are more consistent and remain around chance (40-65%) each afternoon through the end of the week. The higher chances will be in the mountains as usual. QPF is minimal but areas that receive multiple showers or thunderstorms could see an isolated flash flood risk. Temperatures continue to rise toward the normal range through the period with a few locations south of I-85 getting back into higher heat indices by midweek. Still looks like the heat indices will remain well under any Heat Advisory Criteria at this point. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Mainly VFR stratocu to start this morning. Guidance has backed off on the chance of MVFR at KCLT/KHKY but kept it to develop around 14Z at the rest of the sites. Have made this adjustment to cigs, but can`t rule out MVFR at the other sites. Any restrictions lift by 18Z. Increasing moisture and weak instability develop by afternoon leading to scattered showers continuing into the evening, so PROB30s in place for these. Can`t rule out a rogue lightning strike, but chance low enough to keep precip as SHRA for now. Scattered showers continue overnight with prevailing -SHRA for these. MVFR cigs redevelop during the evening dropping to IFR overnight. MVFR vsby with some IFR possible. NE wind continues through the period, SE at KAVL. A rogue gust is possible as well. Winds may toggle to ESE at KCLT overnight. Outlook: Daily diurnal showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions return across the area each day this week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...RWH