Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
201
FNUS53 KGRR 051848
FWFGRR
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
248 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
...Approaching Red Flag Conditions in Mid Michigan Sunday...
.DISCUSSION...
It is unlikely for areas south of Big Rapids and Mount Pleasant
to see significant rainfall tonight, though a quick shower or
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out. After weeks of dry weather,
the conditions Sunday afternoon will approach Red Flag in a
portion of central to southern Lower Michigan, as humidity
drops to around 30 percent and west winds increase to 15 to 20
mph with gusts to 30 mph. Areas east of a line from Mount
Pleasant to Kalamazoo are most concerning for fire weather
conditions.
MIZ037>039-043>045-060830-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Hart,
Fremont, and Big Rapids
248 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) until 2 AM, then
mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) until 5 AM, then
partly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms after 12 AM.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent after midnight.
Min temperature.....50-55.
24 hr trend......15 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........88-93 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......South winds around 16 mph shifting to the
southwest around 13 mph overnight. Gusts up to
31 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......600-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 20 mph shifting to the southwest
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....170 (fair).
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.19 in.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) until 5 PM, then mostly
cloudy (70-80 percent).
Max temperature.....64-69.
24 hr trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........36-41 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West winds 13 to 18 mph with gusts to around 28
mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5000-5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....1400-1600 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.01 in.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 2 AM, then
partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min temperature.....38-43.
24 hr trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max humidity........75-80 percent near Lake Michigan and 84-89
percent Inland.
24 hr trend......7 percent drier near Lake Michigan and
unchanged Inland.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
in the evening.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4600-5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....960-1280 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.02 in.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....59-64.
24 hr trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........36-41 percent.
24 hr trend......3 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 6 to 11 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3200-3700 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
3900-4400 ft AGL Inland.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....810-910 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.
$$
MIZ040-046-060830-
Clare-Isabella-
Including the cities of Clare and Mount Pleasant
248 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent) until 2 AM, then
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms after 2 AM.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent overnight.
Min temperature.....50-55.
24 hr trend......24 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........88-93 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......South winds 11 to 16 mph with gusts to around
26 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......600-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....160-200 (fair).
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.11 in.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent) until 5 PM, then mostly
cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max temperature.....68-73.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
Min humidity........30-35 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......West winds 13 to 18 mph with gusts to around 28
mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5000-5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....1740-1770 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min temperature.....38-43.
24 hr trend......16 degrees cooler.
Max humidity........88-93 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
in the evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Mixing height.......4000-4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....820-1140 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....60-65.
24 hr trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........31-36 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5300-5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....900-1140 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.
$$
MIZ050-056-064-071-060830-
Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-
Including the cities of Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison, Holland,
and South Haven
248 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms after 2 AM.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent overnight.
Min temperature.....56-61.
24 hr trend......17 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........82-87 percent.
24 hr trend......15 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......South winds around 15 mph shifting to the
southwest overnight. Gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Mixing height.......400-900 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and 1300-1800
ft AGL Inland.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....150-170 (fair).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.05 in.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....67-72.
24 hr trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........36-41 percent.
24 hr trend......10 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West winds 14 to 19 mph with gusts to around 29
mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4900-5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph increasing to northwest
around 30 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....1250-1570 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min temperature.....42-47.
24 hr trend......15 degrees cooler.
Max humidity........84-89 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
in the evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Mixing height.......4800-5300 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
3900-4400 ft AGL Inland.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 25 mph becoming north around
15 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....920-1320 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.01 in.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 62.
24 hr trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........41-46 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 6 to 11 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3600-4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....660-670 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.
$$
MIZ051-052-057>059-060830-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-
Including the cities of Greenville, Alma, Grand Rapids, Ionia,
and St. Johns
248 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 5 AM, then
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms
after 2 AM.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent overnight.
Min temperature.....54-59.
24 hr trend......24 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........79-84 percent.
24 hr trend......22 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......South winds 13 to 18 mph with gusts to around
29 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Mixing height.......600-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....130-180 (fair).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.05 in.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....69-74.
24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
Min humidity........29-34 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30
mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5400-5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....1930-1940 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min temperature.....40-45.
24 hr trend......16 degrees cooler.
Max humidity........84-89 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Mixing height.......3900-4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....670-1120 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....61-66.
24 hr trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........34-39 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5200-5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....830-1110 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.
$$
MIZ065>067-072>074-060830-
Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, Kalamazoo,
Battle Creek, and Jackson
248 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers after 3 AM. Slight chance of
thunderstorms after 5 AM.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent overnight.
Min temperature.....56-61.
24 hr trend......21 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........82-87 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......South winds 12 to 17 mph with gusts to around
30 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Mixing height.......500-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....140-170 (fair).
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....72-77.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
Min humidity........27-32 percent.
24 hr trend......19 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......West winds 14 to 19 mph with gusts to around 29
mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Mixing height.......5300-5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph increasing to around 30 mph
in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....1630-1830 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 43.
24 hr trend......21 degrees cooler.
Max humidity........84-89 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
in the evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Mixing height.......4200-4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....940 (excellent) decreasing to 320 (good)
overnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 63.
24 hr trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min humidity........33-38 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4700-5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....710-840 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.
$$
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds
5 to 6 mph.
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 5 to
10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. North winds 5 to
6 mph in the evening becoming light.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. North winds 5 to 9 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 5 to
6 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph
shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
$$