Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Versions:
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FGUS73 KGRR 291410
ESFGRR
MIC005-015-025-035-037-045-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-085-
105-107-117-121-123-127-133-139-159-281600-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Grand Rapids MI
1009 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Grand River
Jackson 14.0 15.0 16.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Buck Creek
Grandville 9.0 10.5 12.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Grand River
Eaton Rapids 6.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dimondale 13.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Red Cedar River
Williamston 9.0 10.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
East Lansing 7.0 10.0 13.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Sycamore Creek
Holt 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 7 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Grand River
Lansing 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Grand Ledge 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Portland 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Looking Glass River
Eagle 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Maple River
Maple Rapids 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 15 44 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Grand River
Ionia 21.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Flat River
Smyrna 8.5 9.5 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Grand River
Lowell 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Thornapple River
Hastings 7.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
Caledonia 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Grand River
Ada 20.0 22.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Rogue River
Rockford 8.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Grand River
Grand Rapids 18.0 21.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Pere Marquette River
Scottville 5.5 6.5 7.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:White River
Whitehall 6.0 7.0 8.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Muskegon River
Evart 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Muskegon River
Morley 6.0 7.0 8.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Muskegon River
Croton 9.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Newaygo 11.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
Bridgeton 13.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kalamazoo River
Marshall 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Battle Creek
Battle Creek 4.0 5.0 6.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kalamazoo River
Battle Creek 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Comstock 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
New Richmond 17.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:St. Joseph River
Burlington 6.5 9.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Portage River
Vicksburg 5.5 7.0 8.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Chippewa River
Mt. Pleasant 8.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Pine River
Alma 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Grand River
Jackson 10.2 10.4 11.1 12.0 12.7 13.4 13.7
:Buck Creek
Grandville 5.6 5.9 6.3 7.0 7.7 8.4 8.8
:Grand River
Eaton Rapids 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8
Dimondale 4.8 5.0 5.6 6.5 7.5 8.3 8.5
:Red Cedar River
Williamston 2.5 2.9 4.6 5.7 6.4 7.2 8.1
East Lansing 3.7 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.5 7.1
:Sycamore Creek
Holt 3.7 4.1 5.9 6.5 7.2 7.8 8.4
:Grand River
Lansing 3.2 3.4 4.3 5.7 7.1 8.0 8.9
Grand Ledge 5.1 5.2 5.6 6.1 6.9 7.4 8.0
Portland 5.9 6.0 6.7 7.7 8.6 9.1 9.6
:Looking Glass River
Eagle 2.6 2.8 3.9 5.0 5.8 6.4 7.1
:Maple River
Maple Rapids 3.7 3.8 5.0 7.4 8.5 9.4 9.5
:Grand River
Ionia 8.6 8.8 10.1 13.5 15.9 18.0 18.5
:Flat River
Smyrna 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.8 6.1
:Grand River
Lowell 5.0 5.4 6.1 7.8 9.3 11.0 11.4
:Thornapple River
Hastings 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.4 5.4 5.8 6.4
Caledonia 3.1 3.3 4.1 5.1 6.2 7.4 8.2
:Grand River
Ada 5.7 6.7 8.0 10.8 13.1 15.3 16.1
:Rogue River
Rockford 3.7 4.1 4.6 5.4 5.9 6.8 7.4
:Grand River
Grand Rapids 1.4 2.3 3.5 6.9 10.2 12.4 13.6
:Pere Marquette River
Scottville 1.1 1.2 2.2 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.5
:White River
Whitehall 1.5 1.9 2.9 3.5 4.2 5.0 5.4
:Muskegon River
Evart 7.0 7.1 7.4 7.9 8.5 9.1 9.4
:Little Muskegon River
Morley 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 4.0 4.1
:Muskegon River
Croton 4.8 5.0 5.5 6.1 6.7 7.2 7.8
Newaygo 7.3 7.4 7.8 8.4 9.2 9.7 10.4
Bridgeton 7.2 7.5 8.1 9.1 10.2 10.9 11.9
:Kalamazoo River
Marshall 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.9 6.4 6.7
:Battle Creek
Battle Creek 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.1
:Kalamazoo River
Battle Creek 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.3
Comstock 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.8 7.1
New Richmond 11.3 11.6 12.3 13.4 14.0 14.8 15.3
:St. Joseph River
Burlington 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.8 5.4 5.8 6.1
:Portage River
Vicksburg 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.3
:Chippewa River
Mt. Pleasant 3.7 3.8 4.5 4.9 5.4 5.8 6.6
:Pine River
Alma 1.7 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.1 4.8 5.2
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Grand River
Jackson 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
:Buck Creek
Grandville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Grand River
Eaton Rapids 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Dimondale 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
:Red Cedar River
Williamston 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
East Lansing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Sycamore Creek
Holt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Grand River
Lansing 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Grand Ledge 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Portland 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
:Looking Glass River
Eagle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Maple River
Maple Rapids 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Grand River
Ionia 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3
:Flat River
Smyrna 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Grand River
Lowell 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5
:Thornapple River
Hastings 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Caledonia 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
:Grand River
Ada 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7
:Rogue River
Rockford 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Grand River
Grand Rapids 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7
:Pere Marquette River
Scottville 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
:White River
Whitehall 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
:Muskegon River
Evart 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
:Little Muskegon River
Morley 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Muskegon River
Croton 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
Newaygo 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9
Bridgeton 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Kalamazoo River
Marshall 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Battle Creek
Battle Creek 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Kalamazoo River
Battle Creek 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Comstock 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
New Richmond 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0
:St. Joseph River
Burlington 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Portage River
Vicksburg 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
:Chippewa River
Mt. Pleasant 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Pine River
Alma 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/grr for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued near the end of November.
$$
AMD