155
FXUS63 KGRR 222300
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
600 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy Lake Effect Snow Through Thursday

- Not as Cold with Lighter Snows for the Weekend into Middle of
  Next Week; Windy at Times

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

- Heavy Lake Effect Snow Through Thursday

A "firehose" of intense lake effect snow has been aimed at the
Muskegon area today with reports of local 1-2" per hour snow
rates and over 6" of new snow already around Spring Lake and
Fruitport. Other heavy reports have occurred in the warning area
such as 6" near Scottville, and a webcam near Fremont has shown
heavy snow most of the day (and obvious dendrites which yield the
best accumulation rates).

Also of note is several recorded wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph along
the lakeshore which are likely producing areas of blowing and
drifting snow. Storm totals from this event could easily exceed
one foot where the Muskegon band or other bands continue to
persist. Needless to say the Winter Storm Warning is doing well
and no changes needed with that.

Little has happened today in the Advisory area so far due to
southerly flow but veering winds late tonight as the front nears
should push snow farther south and east with time. Will consider
pushing back the start time of those counties until later this
evening when that is expected to occur.

On Thursday the winds will be northwesterly behind the cold front
and the heavier lake effect bands will realign accordingly. Most
of the warning area should continue to see some additional accums
during this aspect of the storm but less than today. The emphasis
for Thursday shifts more to the area southwest of GRR and upgrades
may be needed for Allegan and Van Buren Counties. Parts of AZO
county may be impacted as well with heavier bands in the NW flow.

- Not as Cold with Lighter Snows for the Weekend into Middle of
  Next Week; Windy at Times

Lake effect snow winds down on Thursday night as sfc ridging
arrives from the west although some flurries will likely linger
into Friday in the cold air and backing low level flow.

Additional clippers are expected over the weekend into the middle
part of next week but these take farther north tracks and should
produce generally lighter snow events than what we`ve seen
recently in the Arctic cold snap. Temperatures will be closer to
normal as well although occasional swings will occurs as
attendant clipper fronts pass through. We will still be in the
windy cyclonic flow on the srn periphery of these systems and
currently Monday looks like the windiest day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Highly variable conditions will gradually deteriorate to
predominantly MVFR with some IFR due to snow showers overnight.
SSW winds will remain gusty to around 25 kts this evening before
slowly subsiding and veering to the west overnight. MVFR
conditions will then continue Thursday due to snow showers and low
cigs. Conditions may improve to VFR at some of the terminals by
late in the day or tomorrow evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

We did have gale force gusts recorded earlier today but those have
mostly ended so the Gale Warning will be replaced with a Small
Craft Advisory at 4 PM. That will go through Thursday evening.
The heavy freezing spray threat is winding down too with
temperatures gradually warming up going forward and will allow
that marine headline to expire as well.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for MIZ039-045-
     057.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meade
AVIATION...Laurens
MARINE...Meade