009
FXUS63 KGRR 061426
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1026 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy With Elevated Fire Danger Today

- Cooling Down Into Early Next Week

- Dry and cool next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

- Breezy With Elevated Fire Danger Today

Little in the way of showers have developed along the cold front
moving through the area this morning as upper-level support remains
with the parent trough to the north. This compounds the lack of
moisture due to little significant rainfall over the last month.
West winds of 15-20 mph and gusts exceeding 30 mph at times are
expected. RH values are forecast to fall near 30 percent, with some
guidance like the HRRR/RAP pushing RH values into the 20s given
favorable mixing. These combine to bring conditions near Red Flag
(Fire Weather) Warning criteria, particularly east of a line from
Mount Pleasant to Kalamazoo. This region is where the overlap of
mixing of mid-level dry air and the warmest maximum temperatures
will cause RH values to fall the lowest.

- Cooling Down Into Early Next Week

Troughing moving through today into Monday will cause highs to fall
into the 60s by Monday. High pressure moving in will keep conditions
dry. Lake effect clouds are expected to develop Sunday Night as the
thermal trough passes overhead, with 850mb temps in the 2-4 C range
cause over-lake instability to develop.

- Dry and cool next week

High pressure of Canadian origin builds in early next week and will
bring frost/freeze threat Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Looks like both Wednesday and THursday morning will have lows in the
lower to mid 30s with the surface ridging centered near Lower
Michigan.

Still no signal for rain in the forecast through the end of next
week, but some showers are possible beginning next weekend as a
baroclinic zone sets up across the central Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 735 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VFR conditions will continue through Monday morning. Winds will go
west and then northwest today will gusting over 20 knots through
the afternoon with a few gusts to 30 knots at times. WInds will
diminish to less than 10 knots this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

The Gale Warning will be allowed to expire in the next few hours as
over-lake stability has kept gales limited. The jet exits in the
next few hours ending gale potential, though NW 20-25 knot winds
gusting to 30 knots continue through tonight. Waves of 4-8 feet
continue into tonight and most of Monday before subsiding below 4 ft
by Monday evening. With the end of the Gale Warning the Small Craft
Advisory will be expanded to cover the lake north of Holland through
21z Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

We have issued a Red Flag Warning for much of our eastern and
southern CWA, essentially east of Kalamazoo to Grand Rapids to Big
Rapids to Clare line. Conditions look to move into the Red Flag
Warning criteria range this afternoon with temperatures rising
into the mid 70s, winds gusting over 30 mph and relative humidity
values dipping to around 25 percent. Fuels are dry and after
coordination with the DNR and Forest Service, a Red Flag Warning
was deemed necessary. Conditions will improve after 800pm this
evening.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ040-045-046-
     051-052-057>059-065>067-072>074.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno/Thomas
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Thomas
FIRE WEATHER...Duke