367
FXUS63 KGRB 070942
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
342 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence for above average temperatures continuing into
  next week.

- Dry weather continues through Saturday afternoon. Rain is likely
  Saturday night into Sunday. Probabilities of a quarter inch of
  rain are 45-80%, with the highest probabilities from central
  Wisconsin into Marinette and Oconto counties.

- The latest Drought Monitor to be released later this morning is
  expected to show improvement across central into northeast WI
  due to the recent soaking rains. Rainfall totals over the past
  week were in the 1 to 3 inch range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Friday

Patchy fog over central and northcentral Wisconsin should dissipate
an hour or two after sunrise. An area of low clouds associated
with a weak trough will move across the area today, and likely mix
out as it does so. High temperatures will be around five degrees
above normal.

Mostly clear skies are expected overnight. A steady surface wind
and a well mixed boundary layer should keep any low clouds or fog
from forming. The winds will make for mild overnight temperatures.

Friday will be sunny and mild with lighter winds and temperatures
around ten degrees above average.

Long Term...Friday Night Through Wednesday

The split flow at 500mb will continue into next week, which will
result in above normal temperatures as any arctic air will remain
north of the Canadian border. Looking at the Climate Prediction
Center 8-14 Day Outlook also shows greater chances for above
normal temperatures to continue in this period.

Dry weather will continue Friday night into Saturday as high
pressure shifts east of the area. Clouds will be on the increase
Saturday as rain heads toward the area during the afternoon. Rain
should arrive across much of the area Saturday evening in response
to 850mb warm advection. The highest chances are across central
WI and the lowest chances across far northeast WI from Florence
County into northern Door County. Some concern on the probabilities
of rain during this frame as the NAM12 is considerably slower
with the arrival of the rain which would occur after midnight.
The 500mb low is expected to move across Wisconsin on Sunday,
bringing additional chances for rain. The upper feature moves away
from the area Sunday evening, bringing an end to any lingering
showers during the evening. Probabilities of a quarter inch of
rain are 45-80%, with the highest probabilities from central
Wisconsin into Marinette and Oconto counties.

High pressure will bring dry conditions Monday and Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a deepening 500mb trough across the Rockies will move
east into the area Wednesday, bringing the next chance of rain
which should linger into Wednesday night. Don`t see much snow
in the forecast anytime soon!.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Earlier stratus has scoured out, but another surge of stratus
over western WI is expected to build back into central and north-
central WI overnight into Thursday morning. Possible that patchy
fog could develop over northeast and east-central WI late tonight
so have included TEMPO groups to cover, but only went MVFR as there
is lower confidence.

For Thursday, expect stratus to persist over central and north-
central WI in the morning, before scattering out by late in the
day. Over east-central WI, it does look like scattered to broken
MVFR to lower VFR clouds will spread across the area by afternoon.
Skies will turn mostly clear over the entire area on Thursday
evening.

Winds will be light into Thursday morning, before increasing to
around 10 kt from the west-southwest on Thursday afternoon. Any
gusts should remain below 20 kts. LLWS will develop over much of
the area on Thursday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

The Drought Monitor that will be released later this morning is
expected to show  improvement in drought conditions due to the
recent soaking rains across central into northeast Wisconsin.
Rainfall totals over the past week were generally in the 1 to 3
inch range in this region which will help soil moisture conditions
and replenish rivers.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....RDM/Eckberg
AVIATION.......JLA
CLIMATE........Eckberg