934
FGUS63 KKRF 221410
ESGGRA

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1023 PM CDT MON OCT 21 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:THOMPSON R AT DAVIS CITY IA
DVSI4              12.0  20.0  24.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:THOMPSON R AT TRENTON MO 1W
TTZM7              27.0  31.0  34.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:GRAND R AT PATTONSBURG MO 2S
PATM7              25.0  30.0  32.0    <5   11   <5    8   <5    7
:GRAND R AT GALLATIN MO
GAZM7              26.0  33.0  39.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:GRAND R AT CHILLICOTHE MO 3S
CHZM7              24.0  28.0  35.0     7   15    5    9   <5    7
:GRAND R AT SUMNER MO 2SW
SNZM7              26.0  28.0  40.0     8   30    8   26   <5   <5
:GRAND R AT BRUNSWICK MO 1W
BRNM7              19.0  27.0  33.0     7   20   <5    6   <5   <5
:S FK CHARITON R AT PROMISE CITY IA 6NW
PRMI4              25.0  28.0  31.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHARITON R AT CHARITON IA 5SSE
CHTI4              19.5  26.0  29.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHARITON R AT MOULTON IA 5W
MOLI4              36.0  37.0  38.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHARITON R AT NOVINGER MO
NVZM7              20.0  23.0  26.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHARITON R AT PRAIRIE HILL MO 2NW
PRIM7              15.0  19.0  21.0     6   23   <5   13   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212223/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:THOMPSON R
DVSI4       0.7/    0.7/    0.8/    0.9/    1.7/    4.4/    7.6
TTZM7       9.3/    9.3/    9.4/    9.5/   10.7/   14.6/   22.5

:GRAND R
PATM7       1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    2.3/    3.4/    9.5/   21.1
GAZM7       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    3.4/    4.7/   10.1/   21.8
CHZM7       3.3/    3.3/    3.4/    4.0/    5.9/   10.9/   28.1
SNZM7       6.2/    6.2/    6.4/    9.3/   13.1/   18.0/   34.0
BRNM7       4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    5.1/    7.7/    9.6/   21.9

:S FK CHARITON R
PRMI4       2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    3.2/    5.5/    7.9/   14.8

:CHARITON R
CHTI4       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    6.6/    9.5/   12.7/   14.5
MOLI4      25.1/   25.1/   25.5/   25.5/   25.6/   26.4/   29.8
NVZM7       4.1/    4.1/    4.4/    4.6/    5.0/    7.8/   15.9
PRIM7       3.9/    4.0/    4.3/    4.6/    5.6/   11.2/   15.9
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 1026 Z DH12 /DC2410212223/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 10/26/2024  - 01/24/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:THOMPSON R
DVSI4       0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7/    0.7
TTZM7       9.3/    9.3/    8.2/    8.1/    8.1/    8.1/    8.1

:GRAND R
PATM7       1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5
GAZM7       2.4/    2.4/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1
CHZM7       3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3
SNZM7       5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    5.8

:S FK CHARITON R
PRMI4       2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8/    2.7/    2.7/    2.7

:CHARITON R
CHTI4       3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5
MOLI4      18.1/   18.1/   18.1/   18.1/   18.1/   18.1/   18.1
NVZM7      -0.1/   -0.1/   -0.1/   -0.1/   -0.1/   -0.1/   -0.1
PRIM7       1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$