Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Versions:
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FGUS73 KGLD 271440
ESFGLD
COC017-063-125-KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-
203-NEC057-087-145-280245-
Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
740 AM MST Thu Feb 27 2025 /840 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook 2...
This outlook applies to the Goodland Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)
which refers to major rivers located...
- In Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado
- In Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties in Nebraska
- In 13 northwest Kansas counties whose southeast boundaries are
delineated by Greeley, Wichita, Logan, Gove, Graham and Norton
counties.
These river systems include:
-The Republican River
-The North and South Forks of the Republican River
-The North and South Forks of the Solomon River
-The Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers
-Beaver, Sappa and Prairie Dog Creeks
This outlook is valid from 27 February to 13 March.
Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give an
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack, magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. Outlooks are also based on normal future temperature and
precipitation. Thus, if future conditions are not normal, then
actual crests will differ from this outlook. The vast majority of
flood events in the Goodland Service Area result from short periods
of higher intensity precipitation, or longer periods of excessive
precipitation.
For calendar year so far, south of U.S. 40, around 0.25 to 1 inch of
precipitation has fallen. North of U.S. 40, 1 to 2.1 inches of
precipitation has fallen.
Due to a rapid warming over the past week, effectively no snowpack
remains. Current soil temperatures are in the 32 to 36 degree range,
according to the latest two and four inch soil temperatures,
courtesy of the Kansas State mesonet.
Soil moisture conditions are currently below normal over the eastern
portions of the HSA and above normal in the western HSA. Above
normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming week.
The current Drought Monitor Index (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows
moderate drought covering about 1/3 of the northeastern HSA. The 3-
month outlook(valid for Feb 20 - May 31), has drought conditions
persisting where it already exists and developing where it does not
currently exist.
NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov),
shows the latest 8-14 day outlook forecasting above normal temperatures
and near normal precipitation for March 6th through the 12th. The latest
3-month outlook (March-May), forecasts below normal precipitation and
equal chances at above or below normal temperatures.
Reservoir level conservation pool capacities currently range at
Enders Dam, 18.7 percent. For the Medicine Creek Dam, 93.4 percent.
For the Norton Dam in northwest Kansas, 43.5 percent. For the Red
Willow Dam, 39.4 percent and the Trenton Dam was not reporting. All
of these are showing a similar amount from two weeks ago.
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts
are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic
prediction service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/gld for more weather and water
information.
Due to dry soil conditions, flooding is unlikely.
The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued on
March 13.
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
730 AM MST THU FEB 27 2025
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:South Fork Republican River
Benkelman 2ssw 9.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Arikaree River
Haigler 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Benkelman 1sw 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Stratton 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Frenchman Creek
Culbertson 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Driftwood Creek
McCook 4sw 17.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Mccook 1se 9.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Beaver Creek
Ludell 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 26 27 <5 7 <5 <5
Cedar Bluffs 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Sappa Creek
Oberlin 1sw 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 21 22 <5 <5 <5 <5
Norcatur 15ne 17.0 20.0 22.0 : 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Oakley 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Hackberry Creek
Gove 19.0 21.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:North Fork Solomon River
Lenora 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:South Fork Republican River
Benkelman 2ssw 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.1 3.2 5.2 5.2
:Arikaree River
Haigler 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.4 8.8 10.1 10.6
:Republican River
Benkelman 1sw 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.6 6.8 7.3
Stratton 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.6 8.3 9.7 10.4
:Frenchman Creek
Culbertson 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.5 4.0 5.5 6.3
:Driftwood Creek
McCook 4sw 2.4 2.4 2.5 6.8 9.4 13.8 14.4
:Republican River
Mccook 1se 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.4 6.3 7.8 8.0
:Beaver Creek
Ludell 3.2 3.3 3.7 5.4 9.3 10.3 11.0
Cedar Bluffs 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.0 8.8 10.3 11.5
:Sappa Creek
Oberlin 1sw 2.6 2.7 3.2 5.9 9.8 12.8 13.8
Norcatur 15ne 5.3 5.3 5.5 6.4 12.7 16.4 17.0
:Smoky Hill River
Oakley 4.0 4.1 4.1 6.1 7.2 8.1 8.8
:Hackberry Creek
Gove 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 9.4 10.7
:North Fork Solomon River
Lenora 2.1 2.1 2.2 3.0 5.3 6.3 6.8
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:South Fork Republican River
Benkelman 2ssw 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
:Arikaree River
Haigler 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3
:Republican River
Benkelman 1sw 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0
Stratton 5.4 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2
:Frenchman Creek
Culbertson 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
:Driftwood Creek
McCook 4sw 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
:Republican River
Mccook 1se 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2
:Beaver Creek
Ludell 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Cedar Bluffs 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
:Sappa Creek
Oberlin 1sw 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Norcatur 15ne 4.9 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Smoky Hill River
Oakley 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
:Hackberry Creek
Gove 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
:North Fork Solomon River
Lenora 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/gld for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued on March 13.
$$
JRM