133
FXUS63 KGLD 160723
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
123 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop over
  portions of the area this afternoon and early this evening,
  mainly in northwest KS and southwest NE. A brief severe storm
  capable of producing quarter size hail and/or 60 mph wind
  gusts is possible.

- Freezing (or near-freezing) temperatures are possible across
  portions of the area on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Overview: An upper level low centered over central Utah at 06
UTC will track northeastward into southern WY late this morning
(~15Z).. then slowly lift NNE into eastern MT and western SD-ND
this aft-eve. A lee cyclone will modestly intensify over eastern
CO this morning.. as the aforementioned upper low progresses
northeastward from northwest CO to southern WY.. then weaken and
drift eastward across western KS this afternoon and evening (as
the upper low departs, lifting well north of the region).

A narrow corridor of relatively rich low-level moisture
(characterized by 850mb dewpoints ~12C and surface dewpoints
~55-60F) accompanying southerly flow on the eastern periphery of
the eastward advancing lee cyclone will foster marginal diurnal
destabilization (~500-750 J/kg MLCAPE) this afternoon. While
focused upper forcing /DPVA/ associated with the progressive
upper low will pass well north and west of the Goodland county
warning area today.. low-level speed/directional convergence
along a SSW-NNE oriented, eastward advancing surface-850 mb
trough over northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska should
suffice with regard to aiding/initiating convective development.
From a parameter standpoint, e.g. 50-60 KT effective deep layer
shear, supercell composite values ~1 to 2.. a severe storm is
certainly possible. From a pattern recognition and prior
experience standpoint, the presence of marginal instability..
and -absence- of focused upper forcing / layer-lifting (and
release/realization of potential instability).. suggests that
updrafts will be modest in nature, modest enough that.. strong
effective deep layer shear may be detrimental (rather than
beneficial) to updraft sustainment/organization. Furthermore,
given that a SSW-NNE oriented low-level convergence zone will
provide the impetus for convective development -- in an
environment characterized by unambiguously strong SW steering
flow -- a significant amount of convective `interference` will
also be detrimental to the development of sustained/organized
updrafts. Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and
recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST appear supportive of this
`line` of reasoning. Showers/storms will abate from west to east
this evening as the (by then) weakening surface-850 mb trough
(and narrow corridor of rich low-level moisture) progresses
eastward into central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Friday and Saturday are forecast to have the area remain under
troughing aloft while the main axis swings through the Plains,
clearing the area late Saturday. With the drier air mass in
place, precipitation chances are currently less than 10% both
days. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s and low 70s.

Sunday morning, after the trough axis swings through, a cold
and dry air mass is forecast to move over the area. With
dewpoints in the 20s, there is a chance that the area could have
its first freeze Sunday morning, favoring Eastern Colorado. The
cold air shot is forecast to be short lived as slight ridging
moves in on the back of the front and brings a slightly warmer
air mass. With that, highs should still warm into the 70s
underneath partly cloudy skies.

Going into next week, we are still looking at another trough
moving through around Mon. Ahead of the trough, it is forecast
to develop another system along the Front Range and increase
winds with gusts around 25-35 mph. With dry air still in place,
we may see critical fire weather conditions Monday ahead of the
system with RH around 15% and the stronger winds. Highs are
forecast to be in the 60s.

If the trough moves through on time, both Tue/Wed mornings
would have lows in the 30s again. With this, more freezing
temperatures may impact the area. That being said, the lower
temperatures will favor Eastern Colorado again, potentially
leaving NW Kansas and SW Nebraska above freezing. If the trough
delays more into Tuesday, then Wednesday morning would be the
only near freezing morning. The current forecast favors dry air
remaining in place with no air mass recovery from repeated upper
troughs, keeping precipitation chances below 10%.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Thunderstorms may affect either/both terminals during the early
to mid afternoon (~18-22Z). Additional showers/storms may
develop during the late afternoon and early evening (~22-03Z)..
potentially affecting either/both terminals. VFR conditions will
otherwise prevail. S winds at 20-30 knots will persist through
the majority of the TAF period. Winds will decrease to 10-15
knots around sunset (~00-01Z Fri) as a lee cyclone in CO
progresses eastward across western KS and southwest NE. Winds
are expected to shift to the NNW or N and increase to 15-25
knots near the end of the TAF period (03-06Z Fri).. on the
western periphery of the eastward advancing /departing lee
cyclone.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Vincent