331
FXUS63 KGLD 161710
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1110 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for portions of the
  area on Thursday, mainly along and south of Highway 24.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Dust lofted into the air
  may result in hazy conditions and degraded air quality across
  portions of the area Thursday afternoon, as well.

- Rain possible Thursday night onward into the upcoming weekend.
  Precipitation may occasionally mix with snow over portions of
  the area, mainly in eastern Colorado. Impactful accumulation
  not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 435 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Overview: A split-flow synoptic regime, characterized by a cut-
off low offshore the Southern Pacific Coast and confluent flow
aloft over the Intermountain West (today) will undergo a
complex transition to troughing / cyclonic flow aloft (Thu-Thu
night) as potent shortwave energy in British Columbia digs
southward through the Pacific Northwest (today) and
Intermountain West (Thu-Thu night).

Today-Tonight: Modest westerly flow aloft will gradually back
to the WSW over the region late tonight. In the lower-levels, a
weak/baggy lee cyclone will develop in southeast CO this
afternoon and progress east across southwest KS (tonight).
Expect well above average temperatures (80`s) and dry conditions
(RH 10-15 percent) this afternoon. With a baggy, ill-defined
MSLP-850 mb height gradient over the region, expect light (10-15
mph) W to SW winds. Deep vertical mixing (up to 10-11 KFT AGL)
may yield occasional/sporadic gusts to 20-25 mph this afternoon.
Weak winds will, ultimately, be the limiting/mitigating factor
precluding critical fire weather conditions. While a few high-
based showers are possible on the northwest periphery of the
eastward advancing lee cyclone in northwest Kansas this evening,
guidance indicates that strengthening low-level southerly flow
and warm advection (and greater potential for convective
development) on the eastern periphery of the eastward advancing
lee cyclone will be confined to south-central KS and southeast
KS.. well south and east of the Goodland county warning area.

Thu-Thu night: A more pronounced lee cyclone will develop on
Thu as shortwave energy over the Pacific Northwest digs
southward into the Intermountain West and upper level flow
decidedly backs to the southwest over the central Rockies.
Guidance indicates that the aforementioned lee cyclone will
follow a similar progression.. tracking east across Kansas Thu
eve-night. In contrast to today, strengthening low-mid level
flow will foster breezy/windy conditions over portions of the
area, mainly south of Highway 24 where WSW to SW winds may
reach 25-35 mph w/gusts to 45-50 mph.. and dangerous fire
weather conditions are likely. Additionally, an evaporatively
cooled airmass emanating from widespread precipitation over
Wyoming and far western Nebraska will progress south toward the
Tri-State area during the late aft-eve, the leading edge of
which will manifest as a northerly wind shift / effective cold
frontal passage. Guidance suggests that the effective frontal
passage will occur ~00Z in northeast CO and southwest NE, ~03Z
along the I-70 corridor and ~06Z in far southern portions of the
area (Greeley/Wichita). Given that upstream precipitation will
likely play a key role in the the magnitude/momentum of the
evaporatively cooled airmass.. a fair amount of uncertainty
exists with regard to the precise timing of the effective cold
frontal passage. An earlier frontal passage.. even if just 2 to
3 hours earlier.. would impact the forecast in a variety of
ways, the most impactful of which would be a further increase in
fire weather danger/severity during the late afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 144 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

The long term period looks to generally be cooler with an
active pattern featuring multiple upper level troughs. There
will also be a few chances for precipitation.

The forecast for Friday through Sunday hasn`t changed too much.
Still expecting cooler temperatures with highs in the 40s, 50s,
and 60s as colder air moves in with an upper trough. The
initial trough in the main flow (Northern Plains) looks a little
more pronounced so have lowered temperatures slightly compared
to prior forecasts. This also has lowered the chance for more
appreciable precipitation as the front and surface low will
likely be pushed too far south and limit the better forcing.
Still, expecting some rain and snow as the air saturates and
with the larger trough upstream over the Western United States.
There looks to be about a 10% chance for 2-4 inches of snow in
Eastern Colorado, if the surface low can stay around the
Panhandles region or Southwest Kansas and provide the better
moisture transport and wrap around.

Saturday and Sunday are still dependent on when/where the
trough over the Western United States progresses east. Ensembles
continue to show a wide spread on timing, with the favored
solution moving the main trough and surface low near the area
during Sunday morning. The favored solution would allow the area
to see some rain with maybe a few light snow showers in Eastern
Colorado. Should the low move through overnight Saturday,
precipitation would be more likely to be snow. In regards to the
precipitation amounts, amounts continue to favor totals
generally below a quarter of an inch (liquid total/equivalent)
as the trough digs to far south and then east which keeps the
low away from the area. The outlier solutions that move the
surface low closer to the area (10-15% chance) do give liquid
totals around half an inch to an inch, favoring the eastern half
of the area.

After the weekend system, we are favored to go into either a
zonal/northwest flow pattern. As such, temperatures are forecast
to be around average in the 70s and there will be low chances
for precipitation that will be dependent on how much moisture
lingers in the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

WNW winds are forecast to become more westerly through the
afternoon with a brief period of southwesterly winds at KGLD.
Sporadic wind gusts around 20 knots is possible. Isolated
showers are forecast to develop across eastern Colorado and may
impact the KGLD terminal. These are forecast to continue to
move to the east with better coverage potentially impacting KMCK
later on in the period. There is a 5% chance of some lighting
for KMCK with this activity as well, but confidence is higher
in the showers occurring. Winds will then turn back to the WSW
Thursday morning with gradually increasing winds through the
morning hours.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for COZ253-254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Trigg