020
FXUS63 KGLD 082329
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
529 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms are possible overnight with the main threat
  of strong to damaging wind gusts.

- Storms will be possible daily through the end of the work week
  at least with the main threat of damaging winds.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid
  90s.

&&

.UPDATE...

Issued at 505 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Isolated storm activity through the overnight hours. A tricky
environment to say the least. Coarse resolution forecast models
highlight the ubiquitous nature of the local environment with
favorable areas of convergence and lift neighboring regions of
sinking air progressing through the mean flow round the 4-corners
region monsoonal high. There`s plenty of instability to work
with albeit moisture is a bit lacking today. Shear is better
today than prior with a NW orientation as indicated via GLD WSR-
88D VAD wind profile. Both 0-3 and 0-6 km shear oriented NW and
coincident with right-moving storm motion vectors.

That said, looking upstream at activity coming southward out of
Cheyenne, WY, moving across northeast CO there is some concern
that this activity is associated with a weak mid-level impulse
and coincident NW jet max. It`ll be interesting through its
evolution as to whether the present complex develops further as
it slips SE especially given the available environment and that
which may be perturbed by the east-central CO thunderstorm at
this present moment. Then there`s the SSE-NNW oriented horizontal
convective rolls as seen within the radar and there are some cu
fields as seen via satellite. There certainly is a nose of a
more favorable environment across W KS and whether the incoming
storms orient and follow the axis of better instability and
moisture remains to be seen. One would think that there is the
potential for strong to severe storms but convection as of late
has been unpredictable given both lift and forcing parameters
are varied, as aforementioned, around the monsoonal high. Will
definitely have an eye on the situation on the next several
hours which should be through the region by midnight.

PoPs reflecting the possibility of a sweeping line of shower
and thunderstorm activity during the overnight hours. Keeping it
at chance given just the isolated and uncertain nature of
outcomes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Tonight through the overnight hours, weak ridging is still in
place over the region. Isolated to scattered storms are expected
to move through the area this afternoon and evening, mainly from
around 23z through 05z and the CAMs and short range models are
in pretty good agreement on this timing. These storms are
expected to fire up east of the Front Range in eastern Colorado
and progress through toward our area. There is still a decent
amount of model uncertainty regarding the severity of these
storms. Generally, the CAMs and short range models for both 06z
and 12z runs this morning showed the storms at their strongest
just west of us and in our westernmost areas before weakening as
it moves across the area. Shear looks to be a little more
limited/conditional today, despite favorable CAPE and moisture. The
environment however is still favorable for severe storms,
especially in westernmost areas, but they will be a bit more
isolated in coverage than previous nights. The main threat will
be damaging winds 60-75mph, but large hail will be possible as
well. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather to
reflect this risk as well. These storms should be fairly
progressive, so the flash flood concern is very minimal, and we
are not outlooked by WPC for a flooding risk. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Looking at the long term forecast, weak ridging will persist
through the area tomorrow (Wednesday) and generally be a bit
stronger Wednesday. There will be an isolated chance of storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The chances of these storms
occurring is low (PoPs around 10-20% or less), but if they
occur, the best location to see these storms will be in the
northeasternmost areas. These storms will have the potential for
subsevere to severe gusty winds (50-60mph) primarily, but there
will be a risk for large hail as well if they occur. Reflecting
this risk, we are outlooked in a Marginal Risk for Severe
Weather for just our northeastern areas.

Thursday, a shortwave upper level system will be moving near the
area, enhancing the chances for rain and severe storms again,
primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. There is still
some model uncertainty regarding where the storms will begin to
fire up and how strong they will be. But the globals are in
decent agreement that around 18-21z, storms will begin to fire
up east of the Front Range and progress through our area
throughout the evening, especially as we get toward 00z through
06z. The best timing to see severe weather at least looking at
the trends will be between 21z and 03z. We are outlooked in a
Marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Thursday, but would not be
surprised if the Slight Risk off to our east gets expanded into
our area in the next 1-2 days. Regardless, severe weather will
be favorable for this system with all modes of severe weather
possible at this time. Additionally, as these storms move
through, they could slow down a little, which could cause some
minor flash flooding issues due to the efficient rainfall. We
are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Heavy Rainfall to reflect
this potential. There is still quite a bit of model
uncertainty, and things could change depending on how things
progress over the next 1-2 days. We will keep monitoring for
changes.

Friday through the weekend forecast still has quite a bit of
uncertainty since it depends on how these systems progress first
over the next few days. But generally, there will be the chance
for storms daily during the afternoon and evening hours with the
potential for a few of these storms to be severe. We will keep
monitoring for changes to determine further details on the
severity and mode of these storms. MSW

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 505 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR prevailing with S flow however isolated TSRA could perturb
the environment with outflow boundaries. Hesitant to hold TSRA
at prevailing given isolated nature. Monitoring TSRA out of NE
CO behind which should see more N flow into the overnight period.
Will reflect at minimum the wind shift in the TAFs. CIGs clear
thereafter into the morning period with a return of S flow and
renewed risk of isolated TSRA developing later in the day.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Williams
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...Sipprell