952
FXUS63 KGLD 081945
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1245 PM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind chills around -10 are forecast, generally east of Highway
  83 and in Eastern Colorado.

- Light snow and flurries are forecast across the area on
  Thursday. Little to no accumulation is expected.

- Another chance of light snow late Friday night through
  Saturday. Amounts appear minimal at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 257 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

Current observations show clear skies with winds out of the west at
5 to 10 mph. The winds have helped keep temperatures out of the
negatives for the most part, but am starting to see some locales dip
to near zero. Should see a few sites mainly east of Highway 83 where
temperatures have neared zero have wind chills in the negative
teens. The good news is that the winds have been sporadic so the
cold wind chills shouldn`t be constant.

For the rest of today, sunny skies are forecast as the area sits
inbetween multiple upper troughs and lows, with some slight ridging
forecast. With little snow on the ground and the sunny skies, high
temperatures should climb into the mid to upper 30`s. Winds will
generally be from the southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Tonight, the upper trough over the Northern Rockies is forecast to
move over the Eastern Rockies and Front Range. With it, moisture is
forecast to move in from the north in the lower and mid levels.
Cloud cover should increase through the night, but not before
temperatures drop into the teens. Some flurries or light snow could
develops just before sunrise.

Tomorrow, the upper low is forecast to be south of the area with a
part of the main trough axis swinging through the area. At the
surface, the area is forecast to be on the back side of a low
pressure system to the east with higher pressure moving in from the
northwest. With little/no synoptic forcing and isentropic analysis
suggesting that glide lift will not occur, tomorrow is forecast to
see some flurries and occasional snow showers for a majority of the
area. If temperatures can get warm enough with any breaks in the
clouds, a sprinkle/mist could also form. Temperatures will likely be
below freezing for most of the day, but warm to the low to mid 30`s
as more breaks in the cloud occur later with the system shifting
southeast. Winds are forecast to be a bit stronger with the area
between the center of the low and high pressure, with winds from the
north at 15-25 mph. Wind gusts are forecast to reach 30 to 40 mph
with the lack of mixing keep gusts in the 30`s.

Tomorrow night, the systems should be southeast of the area and
skies clear on the back side. The high pressure center is forecast
to still be off to the west, which would keep winds around 10 to 15
mph. This should help most of the area stay in the teens for
temperatures, with single digits more likely in Colorado (closer to
the colder air mass.)

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

Fairly progressive pattern early this period with a series of
shortwave troughs moving over a ridge in the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies and then digging into the Central
Plains. This is a dry pattern since low level moisture will be
lacking for these fast moving systems and better forcing will be
in the Northern Plains. Nonetheless, can`t rule out an isolated
flurry or two at times as they skirt by to the north.
Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the mid
to upper 30s and lows in the teens.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Pacific ridge will shift eastward
taking the main storm track into the eastern CONUS. Dry
conditions will result for the Central Plains. Temperatures will
also begin to moderate under the ridge, with highs on Tuesday in
the lower 40s and highs on Wednesday in the upper 40s to lower
50s. Lows will be in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 955 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025

KGLD...VFR conditions are forecast from taf issuance through
11z. West winds around 10kts at taf issuance will back to the
southwest, occasionally gusting to 20kts or so from 20z-22z.
Tonight, west winds around 10kts veer to the northwest, gusting
up to 25kts toward 11z. From 12z-18z, sub VFR conditions are
forecast as a weather system brings increasing chances for snow
and blowing snow due to northerly winds gusting to around 30kts.

KMCK...VFR conditions are forecast from taf issuance through
11z. A west-southwest wind around 10kts at taf issuance will
back to the southwest at similar speeds around 23z, continuing
through 05z. From 06z-11z, winds veer to the northwest up to
10kts. After 12z, a weather system brings sub VFR conditions
due to stratus along with a chance for light snow and blowing
snow with northerly winds gusting to around 30kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99