396
FXUS63 KGLD 051737
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1037 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest
  winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday.

- A 20% chance of a rain/snow mix Saturday morning with some
  potential visibility reductions due to the gusty winds. Little
  to no accumulation is currently forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1256 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Northwest synoptic flow continues across the area tonight as a
surface high backs into the area. Mainly clear skies are ongoing
across the area but have had some transient freezing fog across
Greeley, Wichita and southern portions of Gove county but is
forecast to end by 2am CT as mainly westerly downsloping wind
occurs across the area.

For today, slightly warmer temperatures are forecast with highs
in the 40s. A weak cold front is forecas to move through the
during the mid/late morning hours leading to some weak lift and
an increase in clouds in the 700-600mb level. Continue to think
that sprinkles/flurries is most likely as dry air remains in
place near the surface but have added in some 15% snow/rain
chances across western Yuma county where the 03Z RAP13 shows
slightly stronger omega around 3mb which is co-located with
increasing TQ indices of 16- 18 which suggests some convective
nature may be present and is supported by the 03Z RAP13
soundings showing around 5 j/kg of CAPE in the same layer as
well; which would support a slightly better chance of some
precipitation during the afternoon hours. At this time leaning
more towards rain showers but can`t discount out lower wetbulb
temperatures as seen on the 00Z NAM which would support a mix or
a brief changeover to all snow. Overall though not anticipating
any hazards at this time.

Saturday, has the potential for some nuisance impacts but still
quite a bit of variability remains. A low pressure system is
forecast to develop over in the northern vicinity of the
forecast area. ECMWF- AIFS supports a good 50/50 split of the
location of the low being across Kit Carson county or north of
the area just south of Interstate 80 which is where
deterministic guidance continues to place the low. At this time,
I`m favoring the northern track which is where the GEFS spread
supports the location. This will end up leading to gusty to
strong winds across the area gusting 50-55 mph as the low
deepens through the morning hours. If the low can deepen some
instead of being more broad then would not be surprised a rogue
wind gust to 60 mph can occur as well.

The other part of the forecast to keep a close eye on is
precipitation potential. Modest omega around 8-10 microbars is
seen across the majority of the area in the 800-600mb layer
along with some of the lift being located in the dendritic
growth zone. The biggest question mark at this time is if it can
overcome some drier air near the surface to reach the ground. I
strayed away from the NBM and introduced 15-24% chances of
precipitation across the area with northwest portions seeing
precipitation from 12-15Z and central and eastern 15-18Z. At
this time thinking that rain, snow or a rain/snow mix is most
likely but there is a corridor of 850mb warm air advection that
the RAP and the NAM are picking up on which concerns me for warm
nose potential resulting in a period of sleet or freezing rain.
Confidence in this is only around 10% at this time however so
will refrain from introducing that wording into the forecast.
Should rain or snow occur little to no accumulation is currently
anticipated at this time. Some visibility reductions to blowing
snow as the snow is falling may be possible however. The
biggest question mark at this time is how much dry air will be
at the surface and how will that affect what occurs at the
surface. High temperatures for the day are currently forecast in
the upper 40s to low 50s but I for sure have concerns that they
may still be to high even after lowering them especially if
cloud cover remains thick.

A cold front on the back end of the low is then forecast to
move through the area Saturday night and into Sunday morning. A
large spread for high temperatures remains especially for the
eastern portions of the area due to variations of how far south
the front will progress and how quickly it will move east of the
area. High temperatures for the day are currently forecast in
the mid 30s across the east to the low/mid 40s across the west
where downsloping may become more prevalent dependent on the
timing of the front. Dry conditions and mainly sunny skies are
currently forecast for the day Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Below average forecast confidence. Long range guidance
indicates that an omega block -- the center/ridge of which will
be anchored offshore the central-southern Pacific Coast -- will
hold sway / dominate the synoptic pattern over the western half
of the CONUS next week, fostering a prolonged period of WNW-NW
flow aloft over the Rockies and High Plains -- while a deep,
complex cyclonic gyre/vortex in eastern Canada (roughly centered
in vicinity of Hudson Bay) maintains deep troughing / cyclonic
flow aloft over the eastern CONUS.

Long range guidance suggests that the Tri-State area will be
situated on/near an inflection point in the synoptic pattern..
between the upstream (western CONUS) ridge and downstream
(eastern CONUS) trough.. in NW-WNW flow aloft. 00Z 12/05
operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF suggest that deep
troughing and regular/periodic Arctic airmass incursions into
the Lower 48 will be confined to the central-eastern CONUS (east
of the Tri-State area).. and that occasional progressive
cyclones (storm tracks) will be confined well north and east of
the Tri-State area.. to the Dakotas, Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. If this is the case, one would expect dry conditions
and, on the whole, near average to above average temperatures.

With guidance indicating that the Tri-State area will be
situated on/near an inflection point in the synoptic pattern,
forecast confidence is below average (esp. mid-late week).
Interactions between shortwave energy rounding the N periphery
of the eastern Pacific ridge and shortwave energy rounding the W
and SW periphery of the complex cyclonic gyre in Canada could
subtly alter the evolution of the upper level pattern, for
example: shift the synoptic `inflection point` (and westward
extent of deep cyclonic flow aloft) slightly further west..
placing the Tri-State area in closer proximity to Arctic airmass
incursions, or.. vice versa.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1029 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Breezy winds will subside
around 22z. Toward 12z LLWS is forecast for KMCK as the low
level jet moves through ahead of a trough. Behind the trough
southerly winds will turn to the southwest then west. There may
be some light snow/rain occur after 12z for KMCK. At this time
confidence for any precipitation occurring is 20%. Confidence is
even lower the precipitation will lower conditions below VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...JTL