348
FXUS63 KGLD 180220
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
720 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain is forecast to move through the area tomorrow. Locales
  generally along and east of a line from Norton to Oakley could
  see an inch or more of rain with much of the rest of the area
  seeing a few hundredths to a few tenths. There is forecast to
  be a fairly sharp gradient in rainfall amounts for the area.

- Winds are forecast to increase to 15-30 mph with gusts to 45
  mph for much of Monday through Wednesday. Near 0F wind chills
  possible Wednesday morning in the western CWA.

- Mild conditions are forecast for the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024

Guidance continues to suggest a small shift to the east so have
cut back pops across western portions of the area some more. It
is a bit tricky to to nail down where the sharp gradient of rain
vs no rain will be but confidence is increasing it will set up
within the vicinity of a Hitchcock to Sherman to eastern
Cheyenne (CO) line. The ECMWF continues to do its own thing with
a more western path which would increase the rain chances but am
noticing that more ensemble members are trending east. So can`t
completely rule out that scenario but is looking less likely. I
did add in some thunder mention as well across the east as we
will be near the dry slot region of the low, but in somewhat
similar fashion to the low last week do think we can get some
convection within that region. Some guidance also does try to
suggest some stronger storms with 50+ mph wind in that
convection so may need to watch for a rogue 60 mph wind gust
around Graham/Norton/Gove counties Monday afternoon; confidence
in that occurring is around 10%.

The other change I made was to add in slight chance snow and
rain/snow for Tuesday morning. RAP and NAM both have an increase
in mid level moisture Tuesday morning and persisting west to
east across the area into early to mid afternoon. The moisture
is co-located along a 700mb FGEN band which will further help
increase lift. Snow looks to be the primary precipitation type
before turning to a more rain/snow mix as it moves further east
and temperatures warm slightly. Despite the strong signal in mid
level moisture the only thing precluding slightly higher pops is
that we will be having drier air at the surface moving in.
Should this dry air move in quicker then this may just be
flurries at best.  Should this occur and more cloud will linger
which was the NAM is suggesting then high temperatures will
need to be lowered.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1236 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024

Current satellite observations show a low/trough near the Baja
Peninsula with a larger trough beginning to push into the Northwest.
Ahead of these features, moisture is streaming across the Southern
Plains, with a few showers located just south of the Tri-State area.
With these features pushing east, the showers should stay south of
the area and allow the Tri-State area to stay mostly sunny with
temperatures in the 40`s and 50`s. Tonight, the upper low near the
Baja Peninsula is forecast to begin pushing northeast and bring a
surface low up from the south as well. With this, cloud cover is
forecast to increase with a few showers possible along and south of
Highway 40. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the 20`s and 30`s
before the cloud cover moves in, and then stabilize. Winds will
begin shifting to out of the northwest as the surface low nears the
area.

Tomorrow, the upper low and surface low are forecast to move through
Kansas. With the moisture wrapping around the upper and surface low,
cloudy skies are expected for most of the day with maybe some
sunshine peaking through for counties along the Colorado border. The
tracks as a whole have shifted east compared to prior forecasts.
This has lowered confidence in the area receiving the higher rain
totals and also lowered confidence that western portions of the area
will see any rain at all. The current forecast is for around half an
inch to an inch of rain from Norton to Oakley and locales east. The
rest of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska would likely see only a few
hundredths, to maybe half an inch. While the current deterministic
guidance and ensemble guidance favor the eastern track, there are
still a few solutions that track slower or further west and allow
for main rainfall in the area. Overall chances for the higher
amounts (1-2" in the east and 0.5-1" for much of the rest of the
area) is currently around 20%. Currently, there is little to no
concern for wintry precipitation with dewpoints forecast to
generally be above freezing, and with a large enough warm layer near
the surface to melt any frozen hydrometeors into rain. Little to no
precipitation is expected where there may be a chance for freezing
rain to develop (generally near the Colorado border and west). Even
with the more westerly track, the warmer near surface area and
higher dewpoints would also shift west and keep the chance very low
for freezing rain or frozen precipitation.

Highs are forecast to generally stay in the 40`s, as temperatures
may not move much during the day with persistent cloud cover and
little temperature advection. Winds are forecast to increase through
the day with the surface low moving nearby. However, the winds above
20 mph and wind gusts above 30 mph may stay confined to Highway 25
and east as the further east track keeps the stronger pressure
gradient over Central Kansas, and less into the Tri-State area. For
the locales with the stronger winds, gusts up to 45 mph are forecast
through much of the daytime hours. There is about a 15% chance for
occasional gusts around 50-60 mph, depending on if the showers can
help bring the stronger winds aloft to the surface.

Tomorrow night, winds are forecast to stay around 10-20 mph with
gusts to 40 mph as the pressure gradient remains fairly compact with
the surface low nearby and with the second upper trough forecast to
swing through the Northern Rockies. Lows are again forecast to reach
the 20`s and 30`s.

Tuesday is forecast to be a fairly cool day as higher pressure
builds in from the northwest while the second upper trough swings
through the Northern Plains. While the better moisture and forcing
will likely be east of the area, there is around a 5 to 10% chance
for a few rain or snow showers depending on how much moisture
lingers as the upper trough axis swings through the Plains.
Otherwise, a mix of sunny and cloudy skies along with the cooler air
mass are forecast to keep highs generally in the 40`s. With the
second trough axis swinging through and the higher pressure moving
into the area, winds are forecast to remain a bit strong at 15-30
mph with gusts to 45 mph. Winds are forecast to remain fairly strong
into Tuesday night, but with skies clearing as the upper trough
begins to push off to the Great Lakes region. Even with the breezy
winds, the drier air pushing in with cold air mass is forecast to
have low temperatures drop into the teens and 20`s. Winds chills
could drop into the single digits for the first time this year.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024

For the long term, a fairly mild patter is forecast for the
remainder of the work week. With the upper troughs pushed off, the
rest of the week is forecast to see some ridging aloft. With this,
the winds should weaken by Wed/Thu and temperatures moderate. Highs
are forecast to generally be in the 50`s and 60`s with lows in the
20`s and 30`s.

This pattern may persist through the weekend, but some guidance is
hinting at a shortwave trough moving through the Rockies. This could
provide a chance for some precipitation and cooler temperatures, but
nothing too exciting at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to start the period with southerly
winds around 05-08 knots. Clouds will then begin to increase in
coverage overnight as a system approaches the area. Best
potential rainfall looks to occur after 18Z with the highest
confidence in KMCK; a sharp gradient in the rainfall will be in
place so will maintain the prob30 for KGLD. Winds will also
become breezy as well throughout the day Monday. Continuing with
the AMD NOT SKED for KMCK due to the visibility concerns at KMCK
as a visibility issue with the ASOS sensor continues.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Trigg