438
FXUS63 KGLD 301925
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
125 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions with southerly winds gusting to 40 mph are
  forecast for the remainder of the afternoon and into the
  evening along with a 15% chance of showers and storms. Severe
  weather is not expected.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast to continue into the
  start of the weekend with Friday looking to be the warmest day
  at this time with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Gusty to windy conditions are forecast to return Thursday
  afternoon through Saturday ahead of a cold front.
  Precipitationchances may increase with and behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

A surface trough is in place across the region leading to breezy
winds gusting 30-40 mph roughly from the state line on east; further
west to wards the axis of the trough winds are light around 5-10 mph
due to a weaker pressure gradient in place. Sunny skies are seen
across the majority of the area with the exception of the far
east where a little disturbance is keeping cloud cover in place;
due think any clouds will push out as the surface trough
continues to move to the east. This afternoon a slim chance at
some showers and possibly a storm or two may exist along a
subtle surface convergence boundary; at this time it appears
that the best potential for this would be along and west of a
Goodland to Tribune line however confidence is only around 5-10%
chance of this occurring. A bit better disturbance moves off of
the Rockies and into the area this evening and overnight. Have
added in showers and storms into the forecast due to this as the
forcing is a bit better, as there does appear to be a weak low
across southern portions of the area which should help aid any
convection. MUCAPE around 500 j/kg may support an isolated
thunderstorm potential with a slim chance of hail of dime size
as lapse rates around 7-8 c/km but with the little CAPE and wind
shear around 20 knots would be surprised if any updraft can
maintain itself. Rain chances would be higher than the 15-24%
currently in the forecast but we do have some dry air that will
need to be overcome. Winds throughout the night are forecast to
remain somewhat breezy as a strengthening 850mb jet develops
across the area; winds will then lessen as the night goes on as
the jet slowly shifts to the east and out of the forecast area.
Some patchy fog can`t be ruled out east of Highway 83 during the
early morning hours especially if winds were to weaken quicker
as the jet moves off to the east but am opting to leave out of
the forecast for now due to concerns of the wind, rainfall and
any linger cloud cover from the mid level moisture.


Wednesday, other than a slight chance for some lingering showers or
storms across the eastern portion of the area a more tranquil
pattern appears to be in store as mid level ridging returns to
the area keeping skies mainly clear and the area well behind the
surface trough leading to lighter winds. Due to the ridge and
somewhat warm air mass remaining in place high temperatures are
again forecast to rise into the 80s across most of the area.
Winds as well are forecast to be mainly easterly on the backside
of the surface trough and remaining around 5-10 mph. This is
forecast to continue through the night as well setting up a
climatologically favored setup for fog. At this time Hitchcock,
Red Willow, Norton and Decatur counties are favored just a head
of surface high pressure that is nudging in that would support
the potential for calm winds further supporting the risk for
radiational fog to develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Our above average temperatures continues to start the extended
period as ridging remains in place over the area and a trough
develops over the western CONUS. High temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s are forecast, but the warmest day looks to be on Friday as
the effects of the trough are further felt as the winds turn to the
SW as highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast. Breezy to
gusty winds are forecast to develop during the afternoon Thursday
and continue into Friday as 850mb and 700mb wind fields increase.
Wind gusts of 30-45 mph are currently on the table with the eastern
portion of the area currently favored to be on the windier side of
things as the 850mb jet is currently forecast to be strongest on
that side of the CWA. May need to keep an eye on some fire weather
conditions as well especially for the Colorado counties as RH values
are currently forecast to fall into the upper teens to low 20s. I
would not be overly surprised RH and dew points fall a little more
due to the potential for deep mixing and the transportation
down of drier air and slightly windier conditions.

Gusty to windy conditions are forecast to continue into the day
Saturday as well but may be slightly stronger than Friday. 06Z run
of the ECMWF shows a 40-50 knot 700mb jet developing and if enough
mixing can occur then wind gusts of 50-60 mph are possible.
Confidence in 60+ mph wind gusts is only around 10-20% at this time.
Again will need to keep an eye on fire weather conditions as well, a
caveat may be that RH may be to high as some subtle moisture
advection looks to occur. A strong cold front is currently forecast
to move through during the evening hours on Saturday; however it may
move through quicker as cold fronts typically do so and it is
currently the outlier looking at ECMWF ensemble members. However, do
think that the quicker solution will become the norm as the ECMWF AI
which typically handles front timing and positioning the best has
trended about 6 hours quicker from the 06z to the 12Z run. Rainfall
may also occur along or just behind the front as well as a decent
number of ECMWF ensemble members show precipitation in the 6
hourly qpf forecasts so confidence is increasing in that.
Severe weather can`t be completely ruled out either with this.
Highs in the 60s to 70s are currently forecast Sunday through
the end of the extended period. Another reinforcing cold front
early in the work week may lead to some frost concerns as some
guidance shows a surface high in place across the area around
12Z Tuesday which would support optimal radiational cooling
potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Breezy southerly winds gusting around 30 knots remains forecast
to continue through the day. Some lessening of the winds is
forecast to occur after 00Z as the nocturnal inversion sets in;
the wind gusts may need to be increased as a stronger low level
jet develops which may continue to keep the winds mixed. If this
is the case then LLWS won`t be as much of a concern. Some
guidance tries to develop some scattered showers and storms
overnight. Am currently a little skeptical in this due to drier
air near the surface so will leave out of the TAF for now.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg