756
FXUS63 KGLD 211117
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
517 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures in the 90s are forecast for the rest of the
  work week before cooler temperatures moves in this weekend
  and into the early next week.

- Friday is our next "good" chance at seeing severe thunderstorms.
  Potential for shower and storms remain increased over the
  weekend and into early next week. Could see repeat chances at
  severe storms over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Upper ridge noses into the area today from the southwest
resulting in another hot and dry day. Highs will be in the
lower 90s with light southeast winds. Overnight, a cluster of
storms in the Nebraska panhandle dissipates as it moves into
southwest Nebraska and is not expected to make it this far
south. Lows will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

This afternoon, temperatures are expected to remain very
similar to what we saw yesterday, peaking around 90 for most of
the area, but locations along and east of highway 83 pushing
into the mid 90s. There is a ~15% chance a weak surface boundary
could form in the eastern CWA and fire off some storms around
21Z. The boundary looks to be a ridge axis extending into the
area from the northeast. The most severe weather that this
feature would likely produce is some accumulating hail as the
storms build up or 50 mph winds as they collapse. However, it`s
far more likely that this feature will not form or be strong
enough to fire off any storms, especially considering the
feature is a ridge.

Overnight tonight, lows are expected to cool into the 60s under
mostly clear skies. There is a 15% chance the northeastern CWA
will see some stratus form, which could have aviation impacts,
but confidence is currently low. Thursday night looks to be
basically a carbon copy of tonight.

Thursday is expected to warm up a bit more than today as the
500 mb high scoots closers to the Tri-State area. Most of the
area will see temperatures in the mid 90s, but some locations
east of highway 83 could approach 100 degrees. There will be
another chance at showers and storms tomorrow afternoon into the
evening. This round of storms look to largely remain north of
the CWA, but areas along and north of highway 36 have up to a
15% chance of seeing this precipitation. It looks like a 500 mb
ridge from the high over the Four Corners will be producing some
vorticity to get convection going in western Nebraska. A broken
line of storms look to move to the east- southeast, potentially
brushing the Goodland CWA. Best chance for precipitation looks
to be between 22-10Z. Biggest hazards with these storms would be
50 MPH gusts from a collapsing storm.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Throughout the long-term, an upper-level high pressure system
parked over the Four Corners region will heavily influence the
pattern until Sunday evening, when it finally moves off to the
southeast. Friday through Sunday, multiple trough axes stemming
from a low in central Canada will compete with the high pressure
system, allowing diurnal, potentially severe, convection to
occur. Areas in the northern CWA will have the better chance at
seeing severe convection Friday, as the troughs will be
impacting there first. By Sunday, most of the area will have the
potential for the troughs to force storms to fire. Temperatures
are expected to have a general cooling trend as these troughs
keep impacting us and the low inches to the southeast. Friday,
we`re still looking at highs in the 90s, but temperatures may be
cool enough to start worrying about record cold temperatures by
early next week.

Sunday evening, the low looks to move towards the Great Lakes
region and another, weak low moves over the northwestern CONUS.
These lows are expected to push the high pressure system down
over Mexico, and eventually over the Gulf. This will allow high
temperatures to cool down into the low 70s to mid 80s through
Wednesday, while keeping PoPs above 50 as we progress into
northwesterly flow. Tuesday looks to be the coolest day,
currently forecast to have high temperatures around 70 degrees
for most of the area. However, there is a 35% chance the low
shifts farther to the northeast, and our high temperatures
bounce back into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Skies will be mostly clear with light winds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024