287
FXUS63 KGLD 061516
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
916 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, warming trend expected to last through most of the next
  work week.

- Potential, gradual return/increase of fire weather concerns
  through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

A surface high located across the area leading to light and
variable winds across most of the Tri-State area. This is
leading to cold temperatures across the area as low as the mid
teens across western portions of the area. Winds are forecast to
become more southerly through the night so I do think there
will be a moderating trend with the temperatures.

For the rest of the day, ridging is forecast to develop across
the Rockies leading to more of NW flow pattern and the start of
our warming trend. High temperatures for the day forecast to be
fairly uniform in the mid 50s to low 60s across the area. Due to
remnants of the surface high and no other synoptic features
winds are forecast to be light from the west before an
approaching shortwave within the NW flow shifts them to the NW.
Mid level moisture is forecast to increase as the shortwave
approaches but with dry air at the surface present not
anticipating anything more than virga with this activity through
the evening hours.

Monday morning a backdoor cold front moves through the eastern
portions of the forecast area with really nothing more than a
wind shift back to the north and a brief period of perhaps low
stratus on the leading edge of the front is expected. The
coolest air does like to remain to the east of the area so don`t
think it will have to much of an impact on temperatures as high
across the east warm into the low 60s. Across the west, the
effects on the ridge remain in place so do think enough warming
will ensue for high temperatures to rise in to the mid 60s.
There are some guidance such as the NAM which has winds becoming
southwesterly sooner than the general consensus of overnight,
which if this were to occur than a run towards the 70s would
then possible for the Colorado counties. Winds again are
forecast to light around 5-10 mph; some localized and sporadic
gusts of around 15 mph are possible through the day if enough
mixing can occur.

Tuesday, a surface trough is forecast to move through the area
turning winds to more of southwesterly direction. The wind field
in the low levels is rather meager around 10-15 knots but with
warming temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s inverted v
soundings are present along with the potential for deep mixing
into the 700-600mb level where a strengthening jet of 30-40
knots resides. There is very consensus in deterministic forecast
sounding guidance and even SREF sounding ensembles that at
least mixing to 30 knots will be present. As a result of this
have increased winds to the 90th percentile NBM which seem very
reasonable given this potential. With the warm temperatures in
place and dew points in the upper 20s to mid 30s RH values are
forecast to fall back into the mid teens to low 20s which would
result in some localized near critical to locally critical fire
weather conditions. At this time not entirely concerned for Red
Flag issuance as the wind threat will be solely based on mixing
and a lack of any synoptic or mesoscale features to more
consistently mix down these winds makes me thinks the gusts will
be more sporadic than anything which lowers my confidence to
around 20% that 3+ hours of critical conditions can be met. But
will be something to keep an eye on.

Through Tuesday afternoon and into the evening a surface low is
forecast to develop near the Nebraska/South Dakota state line
and wraparound some moisture at least into northern portions of
the area. There is wide range of solutions on exactly where this
will develop so my confidence is on the low side (less than
10%) of any rainfall in the area but if it develops further
south then my confidence would increase. In the mean time have
introduced some silent pops across the northern portion of the
area for this potential for now. A handful of GEFS ensemble
members do bring some SBCAPE down into the area which if coupled
with the forecasted shear in place may bring some risk of
storms into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday morning but at
this time I would give that a less than 5% chance of occurring.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Dry and warm conditions are expected in the long-term as a
ridge will dominate the period. Temperatures will start off
warming into the low to mid 70s Wednesday and by Saturday, 80s
are forecast across the area. Overnight temperatures will range
from the mid 30s to mid 40s, but be aware we still could see
some below freezing temperatures later this month.

There is a low (<15%) chance a shortwave trough will move
through the area during the late week and grace us with some
light, isolated showers. Obviously confidence is not high this
will occur, but there`s a chance. The best chance is looking to
be Saturday as deterministic and ensemble guidance are showing a
low level low moving across the area.

Friday through Sunday, if a surface lee low can form and stack
up to around the 700 mb height, we could see temperatures
increase into the 90s. There`s a lot that would have to come
together for this to occur, but there`s about a 35% chance this
will occur with the aforementioned low this weekend. If it does,
we would be looking at heightened fire weather concerns on
Saturday or Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 915 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will rule through the TAF period
at both terminals.. with ceilings confined to cirrus at or
above ~15,000 ft AGL. West winds at 5-10 knots will shift to
the NW or N this afternoon.. becoming variable at or around
sunset this evening. Winds are likely to remain light/variable
through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent