Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
482 FXUS63 KGLD 162338 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 538 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southerly winds may develop behind the dryline over portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas Sunday afternoon, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. - Scattered thunderstorms may develop over portions of the Tri- State area late Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly along and north of Interstate 70. Low confidence in thunderstorm development and coverage in the NWS Goodland county warning area. Conditional potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 A vertically stacked low (centered over Minnesota at 20Z this afternoon) will progress east across the Great Lakes tonight and Saturday. In the wake of this feature, an upper level ridge will amplify over the Central-Northern Plains (Sat-Sat night). Meanwhile, an upper level trough will Today-Tonight: Ongoing breezy to strong WNW-NW winds (McCook measured a 51 mph gust at 1740 UTC).. associated with a tight MSLP-850 mb height gradient on the southern and southwestern fringe of the vertically stacked low.. will quickly diminish at/around sunset this evening as the low progresses east toward the Great Lakes.. the MSLP-850 mb height gradient slackens.. insolation wanes and vertical mixing abruptly decreases. Winds will become light and variable overnight.. as modest surface high pressure over the Dakotas extends southward into the Tri- State area. Sat-Sat night: Expect dry conditions.. as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Central-Northern Plains. Modest ESE-SE low- level return flow will gradually become established Sat aft- eve.. as surface high pressure extending into the region from the north gradually shifts eastward. Virtually all guidance indicates that a strong cap will be in place over the region.. suggesting little, if any, potential for convective development. Convection allowing guidance suggests that meager high-based updrafts will be confined to topographically/geographically favored areas (higher elevations of the Palmer Divide) where convective inhibition will be weaker (though, so will instability). While ~15 knot SSW steering flow may usher updrafts toward portions of Kit Carson and Yuma Counties in CO.. increasingly subsident/capped environmental conditions to the east will tend to weaken/suppress development (with eastern extent). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Sun-Sun night: An upper level trough digging SSE ashore the Pacific Coast Sat-Sat night will broaden and stall in vicinity of the 4-Corners on Sun. Cyclonic shear vorticity on the eastern periphery of the trough (over the central Rockies) will foster the development of a modest lee cyclone over eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas during the day. Southerly flow on the eastern periphery of the upper trough (in the lee of the central-southern Rockies) and deep vertical mixing will assist the northward advancement of a pronounced dryline.. to the I-70 corridor (possibly as far north as Hwy 36).. and that strong southerly winds may develop behind the dryline Sun afternoon. While thermodynamic/environmental conditions are favorable for severe weather (especially with southern and eastern extent over central-eastern KS, where rich low-level moisture will be present).. these areas will also be further removed from upper forcing (and in closer vicinity to the central CONUS ridge).. and significant uncertainty exists with regard to whether or not (and where) low-level forcing will be sufficient to overcome convection inhibition. At this time, it is uncertain whether or not convection will develop in the NWS Goodland CWA. Overall, convection appears more likely to develop in northeast CO and southwest NE (in closer proximity to upper forcing).. where thermodynamic/environmental conditions are less favorable for.. albeit still supportive-of.. severe weather. Mon-Tue: Long range guidance suggests that the broad upper trough / upper level low will progress east across the Central Plains in this period. Expect above average chances for precipitation and near-average to below-average temperatures. Wed: Subsidence in the wake of the broad upper low departing the region will foster dry conditions and near-average temperatures. Thu-Fri: Long range guidance suggests that a modest unidirectional flow pattern will prevail over the Central Plains late next week.. as an upper level ridge develops over the Desert Southwest. Expect dry conditions and a warming trend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions remain forecasted for each terminal for this TAF period. Winds are forecast to ease up around 01-02Z as the nocturnal inversion sets in and we lose the response from the low pressure to the north. Winds are also forecast to shift and become more easterly through the night and remain through the day Saturday as they become somewhat breezy again around 20-25 knots. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Trigg