400
FXUS63 KGLD 052254
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
454 PM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slim chance for a storm in the Tri-Border area early this
  evening.

- Warming trend continues through the week before peaking
  Thursday and Friday with heat indices of 100-105 degrees
  possible.

- Temperatures back to near normal over the weekend with
  increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Upper ridge is amplifying over the area today as indicated by
rising 500 mb heights. At the surface, a lee trough is draped
across northeast Colorado, with radar showing an area of
convergence in Yuma County south-southwestward into Kit Carson
and Cheyenne counties. There is a slim chance an isolated
thunderstorm could develop along this boundary, mainly the
northern end in Yuma County, late this afternoon or early
evening and drift a county or so eastward before dissipating.
If a storm develops, parameters support a supercell, but given
the strength of the ridge think this is unlikely. Otherwise,
looking for a dry and breezy night with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Ridge strengthens slightly on Wednesday with heights still
rising. The lee trough drifts across the Colorado border into
northwest Kansas. However, the ridge should be sufficiently
strong to prevent any convection. Temperatures will edge upwards
into the upper 90s to near 100. Not seeing much change on
Thursday with the ridge holding firm and the lee trough possibly
drifting east but diffuse. Will add a few more degrees to highs
which will reach the lower 100s across the entire area. Heat
indices are close to air temperatures and the Heat Risk category
peaks with some level 3 (major) areas forecast. Will see one
more hot and dry day on Friday before a shortwave trough digs
into the northern Rockies and the ridge begins to weaken. There
is a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm Friday
night in the northwest corner associated with the cold front and
shortwave aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Aforementioned cold front continues through the area Saturday
morning with post frontal upslope well established by Saturday
afternoon. A shortwave trough will move out of Colorado in the
afternoon and evening providing synoptic scale lift. Currently
the models show weak to moderate instability up to 2000 j/kg and
around 40 kts of deep layer shear. Those parameters should be
sufficient for a severe threat as storms move across the area in
the afternoon and evening hours. Both 0-6km mean winds and
right mover motions are very slow, 10 kts or less, so may see a
heavy rain or localized flash flood threat as well, but too
early to specify any areas and confidence in the details or risk
is low at this time range. Sunday set up looks very similar and
the slow storm motions continue. The front may try to drift
back north and provide additional focus for thunderstorm
development.

Models dry out a bit on Monday and Tuesday with both instability
and shear parameters much lower than previous days. However, low
level upslope continues and there are several waves in the weak
flow aloft. Hard to rule out at least some shower and
thunderstorm chances in that pattern, but confidence is low with
some mixed signals from the global models.

Temperatures do not change much during the long term period and
are generally near normal, with highs in the mid to upper 80s
and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...Issued at 412 PM
MDT Tue Aug 5 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Look for breezy wind gusts this evening, potentially
gusting stronger than 30 knots if upper winds mix down. A wind
shift to the northwest is expected tomorrow morning at GLD under
light conditions. High cloud or clear skies are anticipated
through tomorrow.
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DeSmet