933
FXUS63 KGLD 060129
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
729 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Patchy frost is possible across northern portions of Yuma
 county in Colorado into Dundy county in Nebraska. Lows could
 drop into the mid and upper 30s by sunrise Sunday morning.

-Cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected on Sunday.
 A warming trend will follow, during the work week. Dry
 conditions will persist throughout the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Have updated the going forecast to add in patchy frost in
portions of Yuma and Dundy counties around 10z-13z Sunday. With
the upper ridge still working southeast over the CWA, winds
going/continuing light as well as clear skies, thinking temps
will drop further than previous forecast. Went with BCCONSMOS w/
some adjustment, especially in the NW sector. This will bring
upper 30s into NW zones by sunrise, with some localized mid 30s
in the river valleys/lower elevations in northern Yuma county
east into Dundy county. Areal coverage does not warrant a Frost
Advisory, but will be chilly nonetheless.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Through Tonight: Red Flag Warning remains in effect as-is until
8 pm MDT (02Z) this evening. A cold front continues to progress
southward through the area this afternoon. FROPA occurred in
Goodland ~2:10-2:15 pm MDT, where strong northeasterly winds
(25-35 mph G 50 mph) were observed here at the office. Wind of
this magnitude may create hazardous travel conditions,
especially on west-to-east routes (such as I-70) where cross
winds will be strongest. Localized reductions in visibility
associated with blowing dust are possible. Winds will weaken
after sunset this evening.. further weakening overnight as
surface high pressure shifts southward over Nebraska adjacent
portions of northeast CO and northwest KS.

Sun-Sun night: A cooler airmass.. deposited in the wake of
today`s frontal passage.. will foster much cooler (albeit near-
average) temperatures.. with highs in the 70s. Clear skies and
dry conditions will persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Upper ridge over the Four Corners to start the period will
expand north and eastward through the end of the week. The ridge
axis will be over the central plains Thursday and Friday, the
warmest days of the week. No precipitation is expected during
this period. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s on Monday to the upper 80s and lower 90s on Thursday and
Friday. While afternoon relative humidity minimums will be close
to 15 percent every day, wind speeds appear to be light with no
frontal passages and light winds aloft, so not expecting any
critical fire weather days. On Saturday, the ridge moves east as
a deep upper trough moves into the Great Basin and southwest
flow develops over the plains ahead of it. Associated Pacific
cold front could move through on Saturday, as well as some post
frontal showers, but at this time range there are still
considerable model differences and confidence in any
precipitation chances is low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 437 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Both terminals will see VFR conditions through the forecast
period. Winds for KGLD, northeast around 10-15kts through 06z
Sunday, then light/variable. By 14z, northeast around 10kts
veering southeast by 20z. Winds for KMCK, northeast 10-15kts
through 09z Sunday, then light/variable. By 18z, east around
10kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Record/near record high temperatures are forecast for the
following locations Saturday, October 5...

Goodland.....95 degrees set back in 1947
Burlington...93 degrees set back in 2007
Colby........96 degrees set back in 1900
Tribune......93 degrees set back in 1947
Yuma........ 91 degrees set back in 1963
McCook.......97 degrees set back in 2007

Monthly record high temperatures could be set at the following
locations Saturday October 5...

Goodland.....96 degrees set on 10/17/1926
Tribune......95 degrees set on 10/06/2007 and previous years
Yuma........ 94 degrees set on 10/02/1963
McCook.......98 degrees set on 10/09/1928
Colby........97 degrees set on 10/01/2000

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...99/Trigg